The majority of value being found in betting lines as the 2025 college football progresses is starting to trend toward the non-Power 4 Conference games. The biggest disparity between pregame odds and actual outcomes this past weekend were primarily in games featuring Group of Five teams.
It is hard to know what to make of North Texas after their last two games. The Mean Green found themselves on the other side of a bad line the week prior when they suffered their first loss of the season to South Florida by a 63-36 final after kicking off as 2.5-point favorites. They then trounced in-state foe UTSA on Saturday, improving their record to 6-1 on the season. The inside track to an American Athletic Conference title will likely be on the line when North Texas host Navy in two weeks.
Gametime odds: North Texas -4
Difference: 34 points
The Royal Rivalry goes the way of Dukes from James Madison by a big margin. Old Dominion came into this game with a 4-2 record and a win over Virginia Tech on its resume, but the Monarchs could not hang with James Madison for all four quarters. Old Dominion held a lead late in the second quarter, but were outscored 35-0 in the second half. The win brings James Madison’s record to 6-1 on the season, and gives them a solo lead in the Sun Belt Conference’s East Division.
Gametime odds: -3
Difference: 33 points
Saturday’s loss to UAB likely ends the College Football Playoff hopes for Memphis and Head Coach Ryan Silverfield. / Wesley Hale-Imagn Images
UAB fired head coach Trent Dilfer in the week leading up to its contest against an undefeated Memphis team. Against all odds, including a 23.5-point spread, the Blazers upset Memphis for their first win since Week 3. UAB’s interim head coach is Alex Mortensen, son of the late ESPN reporter and NFL expert Chris Mortensen. He had been the offensive coordinator since 2022 before moving into the interim role. For Memphis, this is a devastating loss, likely ending the Tigers’ College Football Playoff hopes.
Gametime odds: UAB +23.5
Difference: 30.5 points
We have to go all the way back to last Tuesday night to find one of the biggest spread mistakes from Week 8. Florida International traveled up to Kentucky for a mid-week game against a Hilltoppers squad that had only one previous loss this season. The Panther’s defense was stout, yielding just two field goals and picking off Western Kentucky quarterback Maverick McIvor three times. FIU goes back into mid-week action again when they host a 4-2 Kennesaw State team Tuesday night.
Gametime odds: Florida International +10
Difference: 29 points
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore bounced back from the disappointing Indiana loss by throwing for 290 yards and four touchdowns against Rutgers. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Oregon overcame its disappointment from the Week 7 loss to Indiana by trouncing Rutgers Saturday night on the Scarlet Knights’ home field. Quarterback Dante Moore reignited his Heisman Trophy hopes by completing 75% of his passes for 290 yards and a touchdown in the win. Despite the Indiana setback, Oregon still has a strong shot at the Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff bye, but they will have to skirt by a trio of 5-2 teams in Iowa, USC and Washington to set that up.
Gametime odds: Oregon -17.5
Difference: 28.5 points
West Virginia appears to still be receiving a level of respect from its Backyard Brawl win over a very good Pittsburgh team back in Week 3, but the Mountaineers are just not a very good ball club right now. Rich Rodriguez’s club is just 2-4 against the spread vs. FBS teams this season after getting blown out by Central Florida on Saturday. They failed to reach 150 passing yards for the fourth straight game, accumulating just 79 yards through the air against UCF. The win snaps a three game slide for the Knights, who now go into a bye week.
Gametime odds: UCF -6.5
Difference: 25.5 points
Minnesota and defensive lineman Anthony Smith dispatched Nebraska from the AP Top 25 with Saturday’s upset. / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
Nebraska had just cracked the Associated Press’ Top 25 prior to Friday night’s contest against Big Ten rival Minnesota, but the Gophers win this rivalry game for the sixth straight time and knock the Cornhuskers back out of the rankings. Minnesota’s defense was the story of the game, keeping the Nebraska offense out of the end zone while limiting the Cornhuskers to just 213 yards of total offense and collecting nine sacks. Both teams now sit at 5-2 on the season, but Minnesota improves to 3-1 in the Big Ten Conference.
Gametime odds: Minnesota +7
Difference: 25 points
Charlotte has yet to win a game against an FBS opponent this season, yet oddsmakers installed Temple as just a ten-point favorite on the road this past weekend. The Owls made quick work of this road trip, however, jumping out to a 49-7 lead in the third quarter before calling off the dogs. Temple still has a lot of work to do to become bowl eligible, with two 6-1 teams left on its schedule. Saturday’s win moves them one step closer, however, and gives them a winning record in the AAC.Â
Gametime odds: Temple -10
Difference: 25 points
Florida State and head coach Mike Norvell are now 0-4 against Power 4 Conference schools since the Seminoles’ season-opening win over Alabama. / Stan Szeto-Imagn Images
After such a promising start, the wheels have come off the Seminole train in this 2025 season. Stanford’s only previous wins were over Boston College and San Jose State, but they handed Florida State its fourth straight loss Saturday night after the Seminoles made the long trip out to California. Mike Norvell’s squad goes into a bye week with a lot of work to do to get this season back on track, while Stanford gains momentum heading into a clash with a Top 10 Miami team this weekend.
Gametime odds: Stanford +17.5
Difference: 24.5 points
Bowling Green first year head coach Eddie George earned an emotional win in Bowling Green’s I-75 rivalry game against Toledo in Week 7, but suffered a hangover by dropping this contest to MAC foe Central Michigan at home in a game in which the Falcons were favored. Central Michigan did almost all of its damage on the ground, throwing just five passes for the entire game. Quarterback Angel Flores scored three rushing touchdowns and the Chippewa’s defense recorded two interceptions to secure the win.
Gametime odds: Central Michigan +3
Difference: 24 points
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