The end-of-year Tests have never meant more than this year’s, with seeding for the 2027 Rugby World Cup on the line.

The pools for the World Cup in Australia will be drawn at the start of December, splitting the 24 qualified nations into four respective bands.

Watch every second of the 2025 Autumn Nations Series live and on demand via Stan Sport.

They will then be drawn into six pools, with one from each forming the group, making it crucial teams finish this block of Tests inside the top six.

With the Wallabies sitting in seventh, the results of the next five weeks of Test matches will determine whether they have to contend with a giant like the All Blacks, Springboks, or Ireland in their group, or receive a much easier road to the knockout stages.

Rugbycomau breaks down how it works and the crucial games for the Wallabies.

Current World Rankings and how it is determined

As mentioned, the Wallabies sit in seventh on the World Rankings, with the current top ten looking like this:

South Africa (92.20 points)New Zealand (90.02)Ireland (89.83)France (87.82)England (87.64)Argentina (83.82)Australia (82.93)Scotland (81.57)Fiji (81.16)Italy (77.77)

The points totals are calculated using an exchange system of sorts, where sides receive points from each other on the basis of the match result.

How much depends on a number of factors, with teams given massive boosts for beating higher-ranked teams, winning away from home, and winning big (15 points or more).

It’s why Argentina was able to leap ahead of Australia into sixth after splitting their series in the Rugby Championship, stealing a point from them. It could have been even more had the Wallabies not closed the margin in Sydney.

It leaves a four-horse race for sixth, with the Wallabies and Los Pumas joined by outsiders Scotland and Fiji.

However, the system falls in Australia’s favour as they prepare for five games away from home, three of which are against higher-ranked teams (Ireland, France, England).

Here are the games to look out for.

The five in the Wallabies control

The road for the Wallabies begins in Tokyo on Saturday against Japan. While the Brave Blossoms sit in 13th, the away factor of the fixture means a big enough win can earn the Wallabies a crucial half point. A loss would be catastrophic, losing 1.6 points for a close loss and 2.45 points for a big loss.

It goes up another step against Italy, with a full point up for grabs with victory if they can get the job done in Udine.

But it’s those fixtures against Ireland, France, and England that are the big earners for the Wallabies.

Ireland is a free hit for the Wallabies, with essentially no points lost if they are defeated, while they can earn 2-3 depending on how big the victory is.

However, the games against France and England are the two big matches, given their position in the World Rankings.

Wins over either – or both – would lead to a four-point swing and draw the French and English into the battle for the final spots in the top six.

Wallabies schedule (all times AEDT)

Wallabies v Japan – Saturday October 25 at National Stadium, Tokyo

Wallabies v England – Sunday November 2 at Allianz Stadium, London

Wallabies v Italy – Sunday November 9 at Bluenergy Stadium, Udine

Wallabies v Ireland – Sunday November 16 at Aviva Stadium, Dublin

Wallabies v France – Sunday November 23 at Stade de France, Paris

Five out of control

As mentioned, Argentina looms as Australia’s main competitor to take sixth and that final spot in the top band of World Cup seedings.

They have a three-Test schedule against England, Scotland, and Wales, with those games against the English and Scottish the big two games.

Los Pumas are on a red-hot run in 2025 despite their last-place finish in the Rugby Championship, with scalps that include the Wallabies, All Blacks, and the British & Irish Lions.

Argentina lost both games against a weakened England earlier in the year, while they are split perfectly down the middle against Scotland, each side winning 11 games each in the rivalry.

The English also have a danger game against Fiji following the Wallabies fixture, with the Fijians famously taking down England in 2023 before the World Cup.

A loss to the Fijians would cause a sizeable shift and vault Fiji into contention, who play France and Spain.

For the Scots, their big chance to jump into the top six looms as their match against the All Blacks at Murrayfield, where they have never beaten the Kiwis.

Beyond the top six fight, the match between Wales and Japan is an interesting one for Wallabies fans in terms of the second and third band.

If Japan wins and one of Australia or Fiji launches into the top band, there’s a real chance the trio of World Cup soulmates face off once again on the big stage.

Other games to watch 

England v Fiji – Sunday November 9 at Allianz Stadium, London

Scotland v New Zealand – Sunday November 9 at Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh

Wales v Japan – Sunday November 16 at Principality Stadium, Cardiff

Scotland v Argentina – Monday November 17 at Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh

England v Argentina – Monday November 24 at Allianz Stadium, London