Vanderbilt hosted LSU last week and did what oddsmakers expected it to do: Win.

It jolted the Commodores to No. 10 in the AP poll, but what does that mean for their College Football Playoff hopes? Austin Mock’s Playoff projections model has yet to buy into Clark Lea’s team. For this week’s Bubble Watch, I confronted Austin in a dark alley for a frank conversation about the ’Dores.

David Ubben: Austin, your model gives No. 10 Vanderbilt only an 8 percent chance to make the Playoff. That’s just below USC, Utah and Michigan and just ahead of James Madison. Did a Commodore steal a past girlfriend of your model or something? What’s the best explanation for why it has so much skepticism around Vandy?

Austin Mock: My model’s biggest issue with Vanderbilt is probably that it performed really poorly against Alabama a few weeks ago, and the model just doesn’t quite believe it’s broken into the upper echelon of college football yet.

Alabama held the Vanderbilt offense to -0.07 expected points added (EPA) per play and a 39 percent success rate. Those are numbers that you’d expect from a team in the bottom third of college football. Add in the fact that their defense has been questionable at some points this season — against poor competition as well — and I think it starts to make a little sense.

Now, I think I might be a little low on quarterback Diego Pavia and the Vandy offense, and I subjectively believe the 8 percent is a little low for their Playoff chances, but the model just isn’t quite buying into the hype. And when you look at their schedule, hosting Missouri and traveling to Texas and Tennessee will be no easy task. Going 1-2 in those games seems like a pretty solid result, but that would put the Commodores at 9-3, and I don’t think they’ll have enough of a resume to sneak into the Playoff with that record.

Ubben: I guess your model doesn’t account for vibes, because Vandy — which traditionally features some of the least chill vibes imaginable — has some of the best the past two seasons. Does the fact that Vanderbilt launched a Heisman campaign for Diego Pavia with the #2Turnt hashtag mean anything to your model? But what if it can split Missouri and Texas? Would it likely be playing for a Playoff spot in the season finale against Tennessee, provided Pavia continues tormenting Hugh Freeze and the Dores hold serve against Kentucky?

Mock: I can confirm that #2Turnt is not being factored into the model. If Vanderbilt keeps proving me wrong, maybe I’ll need to look into that in the offseason. If it splits Missouri and Texas and takes care of business against Auburn and Kentucky, then yeah, I think it’s fair to say Vandy is playing for a Playoff spot against Tennessee. I don’t think it’ll have the resume for a bid at 9-3 — unless we get absolute chaos over the next month and a half — but 10-2 in the SEC is going to get into the CFP.

Stock up: Louisville

The Cardinals’ road upset of Miami shook up the ACC race, and it also skyrocketed their Playoff odds from just 7 percent to 26 percent. The chances of a Louisville at-large bid look realistic, too. The model gives the Cardinals just a 7 percent chance to win the ACC (Georgia Tech overtook Miami as the conference title favorite), but there are opportunities to win games against Cal, Clemson and SMU down the stretch that might make an impact on the committee.

In a wide-open ACC, Louisville’s entire outlook changed with one big win.

Stock down: Utah

With two losses, one quality win and only one ranked team left on their schedule, the Utes will need some help to make the field. A week ago, they had a 28 percent chance to make the Playoff. After a rivalry loss to BYU, Utah’s odds are down to just 10 percent. The Utes (5-2, 2-2 Big 12) are in a six-way tie for sixth place in the Big 12 and are on the wrong side of tiebreakers with Texas Tech and BYU, both of which are ahead of them in the standings.

There’s still a matchup with No. 21 Cincinnati looming, but the loss officially cost Utah the opportunity to control its own fate in the Big 12 title chase.

Bubble Watch games of the week: No. 15 Missouri (6-1, 2-1 SEC) at No. 10 Vanderbilt (6-1, 2-1) (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

There’s still plenty of skepticism around both of these teams as the Playoff race takes shape. Are they both here to stay in the race for an at-large bid? This will be a massive win for either team. The loser will probably need to be perfect down the stretch to stay in the hunt.

All odds are from Austin Mock’s Playoff projection model.

If Missouri beats Vanderbilt:

• Missouri CFP odds: 31 percent
• Vanderbilt CFP odds: 4 percent

If Vanderbilt beats Missouri:

• Vanderbilt CFP odds: 23 percent
• Missouri CFP odds: 5 percent

No. 8 Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1 SEC) at No. 13 Oklahoma (6-1, 2-1) (noon ET, ABC)

Half of the SEC has one or fewer losses in conference play. The race to Atlanta is still wide open, but so is the race for what might be as many as four at-large bids. There’s no advantage in quality losses in the Playoff era. Both these teams badly need a quality win. Both teams have only one ranked win this year. Ole Miss routed Tulane, and Oklahoma beat Michigan.

If Ole Miss beats Oklahoma:

• Ole Miss CFP odds: 84 percent
• Oklahoma CFP odds: 13 percent

If Oklahoma beats Ole Miss:

• Oklahoma CFP odds: 50 percent
• Ole Miss CFP odds: 41 percent

No. 18 South Florida (6-1, 3-0 American) at Memphis (6-1, 2-1) (noon ET, ESPN2)

The American champion is almost certainly headed for the Playoff after UNLV’s loss to Boise State. As the conference race sorts itself out, look for at least one big game on this list every week. Memphis needs a win to stay alive after a shocking loss to UAB last week, but USF already has quality wins over Boise, North Texas and Florida.

If South Florida beats Memphis:

• USF CFP odds: 35 percent
• Memphis CFP odds: <1 percent

If Memphis beats South Florida:

• Memphis CFP odds: 10 percent
• USF CFP odds: 14 percent