The Boston Red Sox have a math problem.

Alex Cora’s club enters the 2025-26 offseason with four starting-caliber outfielders — Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and Roman Anthony — for just three spots. All four players are under team control through at least the 2028 season.

One potential solution is moving Rafaela to second base, but that’s far from ideal: Rafaela is one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball (his 21 outs above average ranked second in MLB last season), and the Red Sox were 12-12 in the 24 games he played at second in 2025.

Another solution, of course, is removing one outfielder from the equation. And it sounds like that scenario is generating buzz in league circles — particularly as it relates to Duran.

In his list of the 10 MLB stars most likely to be traded this offseason, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden noted Duran’s name “keeps coming up in trade rumors,” and that “it now sounds like the Red Sox will move on from him this winter.” Bowden listed the Phillies, Dodgers, Tigers, Guardians and Rangers as teams that would “love to land” the 29-year-old outfielder.

So, should chief baseball officer Craig Breslow start working the phones to explore a Duran trade? Or is the 2024 All-Star too valuable to part with as the Red Sox eye another postseason run in 2026?

Let’s work through the pros and cons.

The case for trading Duran

While Duran led MLB in triples for the second straight year, his batting average (.256) and OPS (.744) dipped significantly while his strikeout total rose to 169 in 157 games. Breslow also stressed a need for Boston to add more power this offseason after ranking 27th in home runs in 2025, and Duran (16 homers) provides less pop than a player like Abreu, who went deep 22 times in just 115 games.

Perhaps most concerning, however, are Duran’s defensive stats: He committed a career-high seven errors in the regular season — which doesn’t include his brutal drop in Game 2 of the American League Wild Card series that directly led to a Yankees run — and ranked 83rd among 109 qualified outfielders in outs above average (-4).

The Red Sox need to get better defensively after committing the most errors in baseball this season. They also need starting pitching, and Duran — whose offense, speed and contract (under team control through 2028) should appeal to a contender — might be one of their strongest bargaining chips.

The case against trading Duran

What’s the benefit of keeping four outfielders? Look no further than this past season, when Abreu and Anthony both missed significant time. Duran is durable — just seven total games missed over the last two seasons — and is the top-of-the-lineup engine that makes Boston’s offense run.

Another factor to consider: While Duran should command a haul on the trade market, there’s reason to be skeptical of Breslow maximizing Duran’s return. (See: the Rafael Devers trade that brought back Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, James Tibbs III and Jose Bello).

You could also make the case for trading Abreu over Duran; the 26-year-old has plenty of upside and is a better defender but has dealt with three separate injuries in the past two seasons.

The bottom line

Breslow said it himself: The time is now for the Red Sox to aggressively pursue upgrades and position themselves as serious playoff contenders. So, if there’s a market for Duran — as Bowden suggests — it’s absolutely worth exploring a potential trade.

Boston has its outfield of the future in Anthony, Rafaela and Abreu, who are all age 26 or younger. If dealing Duran can bring back some form of quality pitching, that’s a move worth making to shore up a rotation that was forced to lean on two late-season call-ups (Connelly Early and Payton Tolle) down the stretch.