Things we didn’t see coming? The past five rounds of the 2025 MotoGP season, a campaign of total domination that has suddenly become a complete crapshoot heading into this weekend’s Malaysian Grand Prix at Sepang.

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Across the opening 19 rounds, one rider – Marc Marquez – won 11 Grands Prix and 14 sprint races, meaning the world championship was in the bag not long after the sport left Europe for the annual flyaways through Asia and Australia. And – fortunately for Marquez – right before he was taken out at the Indonesian Grand Prix and injured his right shoulder, which required surgery and a recovery that will now sideline him for the remainder of the season.

Even before Marquez became a bystander, the season was heading into unexplainable territory.

Now, picking a winner is akin to predicting Phillip Island’s weather.

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At the Island last Sunday, Raul Fernandez – the same Raul Fernandez in his fourth MotoGP season who had never spent a single lap in a Grand Prix inside the top three – won on his 76th start. A fortnight earlier in Indonesia, 20-year-old Fermin Aldeguer became the first rookie race-winner in 12 years.

Perhaps the biggest recent outlier of all? Francesco Bagnaia winning the sprint and Grand Prix in Japan the round before Mandalika, given the two-time MotoGP champion hasn’t scored a single point in the other three rounds of the past four.

The past five Grands Prix have produced five different winners, but that’s not the biggest shock. What is? That of the nine Spaniards who are full-timers on this year’s grid, just one – Pedro Acosta – is now not a premier-class Grand Prix winner after Aldeguer and Fernandez broke through in the past two rounds, and Alex Marquez took his first MotoGP victories earlier this season.

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Whether it’s beneficial that a world championship has nearly half of its riders hail from one country is a matter of personal taste; what’s not for debate is that you’d have got the longest odds imaginable in the pre-season if you suggested Aldeguer or Fernandez would win a race before a rider whose feeder-class CV is comparable to Marc Marquez, and who finished inside the top three in two of the first three Grands Prix of his rookie year in 2024.

Acosta has scored more points (233) and sits higher in the standings (fifth) than he did 12 months ago, but he remains on the outside looking longingly for that maiden win.

It’s not through lack of trying for a KTM project that was left stuck at the starting gate after off-season financial woes, and as the Austrian brand has stabilised off-track, Acosta has been its kingpin on it.

Nineteen rounds in, he’s demolished teammate Brad Binder 19-0 in qualifying – the only rider who has outqualified their teammate at every round – and scored 107 more points. The 21-year-old has three 2025 Grand Prix podiums to his name, the most recent coming in Mandalika where he cunningly used the KTM’s class-leading top speed to stay ahead on the straights, and then run interference on the rest for the remainder of the lap to finish second, executing a brilliantly defensive race he didn’t relish, but was a means to an end.

After nearly two full seasons, Pedro Acosta is still awaiting his maiden MotoGP win that looked inevitable from day one. (Photo by Martin KEEP / AFP) / –IMAGE RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE – STRICTLY NO COMMERCIAL USE–Source: AFP

With three rounds to go in 2025, opportunity knocks for Acosta this weekend.

Marquez, Jorge Martin – who Marquez succeeded as world champion – and Maverick Vinales remain out injured. Marco Bezzecchi and Aprilia has been the fastest package for the past two Grands Prix, but has won neither. Bagnaia is now a day-by-day – seemingly corner-by-corner – mystery. Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo can be brilliant enough to snare pole position over one lap, but so compromised by his machinery that he can fall to 11th over 27 laps, as he did at Phillip Island.

With potential roadblocks to that maiden win disappearing one by one, Acosta must fancy himself as a chance to take a victory that has always felt like it’ll be the first of many when it arrives, but one that he’s still waiting for as his rivals – and countrymen – jump the queue.

An Acosta victory this weekend would be against the run of play for KTM, which hasn’t won a Grand Prix since Thailand in 2022. But as the past five rounds have shown, stranger things can – will – happen.

Here’s your Insider’s Guide to round 20 of the MotoGP season, with the 20-lap Malaysian Grand Prix set for 6pm (AEDT) on Sunday after the 10-lap sprint race at 6pm Saturday.

CHAMP TO SIT OUT UNTIL 2026

The anticipated news that Marc Marquez will not ride a MotoGP bike again in 2025 was confirmed on Thursday, Ducati issuing a statement announcing this year’s world champion will sit out the final two rounds after this weekend in Malaysia to round out the campaign in Portugal (November 7-9) and Valencia (November 14-17), with the 32-year-old to also miss the one-day test that follows the final round of the year.

Marquez won his first premier-class title in six years and his seventh MotoGP title in all in Japan on September 28, but injured his right shoulder in a first-lap accident with Bezzecchi in Indonesia a week later, returning to Madrid for what was first scheduled to be rest and rehabilitation, but later became surgery.

Marquez won’t be back in the MotoGP paddock until next year’s pre-season tests in Malaysia. (Photo by SONNY TUMBELAKA / AFP)Source: AFP

Marquez, whose run of six titles in his first seven MotoGP seasons was derailed when he crashed at Jerez in 2020 and underwent four separate surgeries on his right arm, had hoped to come back for the first test day of Ducati’s 2026 machine, but will aim to return to the pre-season tests set to begin in Malaysia next February.

In a statement, Ducati general manager Gigi Dall’Igna said: “Since we learned about the injury diagnosis, we knew the chances of having Marc in Valencia for the Grand Prix and the test were very low. It’s a shame because it’s very important for us to have him on track, but we know perfectly that the priority is to recover and return 100 per cent fit for the next season. We fully support the decision and are convinced that not taking further risks is the best choice for everyone.”

Ducati test rider Michele Pirro will substitute for Marquez in Sepang as he did last weekend at Phillip Island, while a replacement for Portimao and Valencia has yet to be named.

‘DIG YOURSELF OUT OF THE S**T’: MILLER’S RESPONSE TO VIRAL MOMENT

Jack Miller described his crash out of last Sunday’s Australian Grand Prix at Phillip Island as being a “sh**ty situation”, after vision of the distraught Australian emerged on social media this week showing his devastation over his fall on lap five of his home Grand Prix.

The Yamaha rider, one day finishing just 0.066 seconds off the Phillip Island sprint race podium in fourth place for his best sprint result of the season, was in a comfortable fifth place when he crashed in Sunday’s 27-lap Grand Prix, his emotional download with his Pramac Racing team – “I’m such a f**king idiot, I don’t understand why I can’t do it” – being viewed over 101,000 times on X in the past three days.

Fifth, had it held, would have been Miller’s best result since he finished in the same position in the third round of the season in Texas; while he was more calm but still ruing his mistake on Thursday at Sepang, he’s optimistic of a better result at the track where he tested the 2025 Yamaha for the first time in February after crossing from KTM in the off-season.

“It’s sh**ty, it’s a sh**ty situation … it’s never nice crashing out, whether it’s your home Grand Prix or on the other side of the world,” he said.

“We put our all into this every weekend, and when it seems like you can’t catch a break and you’re beating your head against the wall, it gets tough. But I’m able to compartmentalise a bit, put that in the past and move forward afterwards. You have that moment and you try to understand why, how, and go forwards.

“Fortunately enough for me, I’ve done 250 of these [Grands Prix] now, so it’s one of those things you have to get used to and dig yourself out of the s**t and try to get yourself back up on top.”

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In eight previous starts at Sepang, Miller has a best result of sixth (for Ducati in 2022), and qualified fourth for Ducati in 2019; last year, he was involved in a scary first-lap accident when he was hit by Quartararo’s Yamaha and fell head-first into the rear tyre of the Frenchman’s bike, coming to rest on the track before his legs were run over by Honda’s Joan Mir.

Miller miraculously escaped injury in the sickening spill, and has his eye on converting his top-10 pace in the past two races in Indonesia and Australia into points 12 months on.

“Indonesia, I felt like we had better pace, better speed and more consistency over the laps, being able to repeat lap times time after time on our own,” he said.

“Yes, it’s true we need to stay on the bike more often … but I’m trying my absolute maximum and trying to push this thing to the edge, and sometimes mistakes happen and you come unstuck.

“We’ll try to build on Friday and try to get a clear run into Q2, because that can make a weekend bang-average or really positive. But I believe we’ve got good pace and our bike should work here well … it worked good in the [February] test here, and I was relatively new on it then.”

Yamaha will field a fifth bike this weekend in Sepang, test rider Augusto Fernandez competing on a YZR-M1 fitted with a V4 engine as part of Yamaha’s plans to race it full-time in the near future after a previous outing in Misano in September.

Miller’s pace at Phillip Island was up with the front-runners before his untimely crash in the Grand Prix after he finished fourth in the sprint. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

APRILIA BOSS WELCOMES ‘DIFFICULT’ 2026 WITH RIDER PAIRING

Aprilia took a giant step towards wrapping up second place in this year’s MotoGP constructors’ standings when Fernandez won for Trackhouse Racing in Australia, a result Aprilia Racing CEO Massimo Rivola says represents a good result for the Italian brand after a campaign of injury and tumult behind the scenes.

Aprilia’s signing of 2024 world champion Jorge Martin was expected to propel its factory team into title contention this season, but the Spaniard was injured in pre-season testing in Malaysia, injured again when he returned for Qatar in round four, and is again sidelined this weekend as he recovers from breaking his right collarbone in the sprint race in Japan, and has only started 13 of 38 races across sprints and Grands Prix this season.

Bezzecchi has produced career-best form in Martin’s absence – the Italian overtook Bagnaia for third in the standings when he finished third in Australia, his seventh Grand Prix podium of the season.

Speaking to Fox Sports’ ‘Pit Talk’ podcast, Rivola said Bezzecchi’s improved performance with added responsibility is Aprilia’s biggest gain this season.

PIT TALK PODCAST: Aprilia Racing CEO Massimo Rivola joins Pit Talk to review a successful yet tumultuous year in MotoGP, look at the growth of Marco Bezzecchi and his hopes for Jorge Martin, and discuss Liberty Media’s arrival while reminiscing about his F1 days working for Australian Paul Stoddart. Check out Pit Talk below.

“The expectations were higher than that coming into the season, but we should be happy about what was done with what we had,” he said.

“I’m very happy about the growth of Marco. We knew that he was super-fast, in terms of talent and in terms of natural speed, but we didn’t know him as a deep worker, and it was really good to see him growing together with us with a great attitude.

“He became a leader, because we were lacking on the other side of the garage when Jorge was missing. He became the leader, and this makes things even more interesting when Jorge will be back because I’m sure Jorge also wants to be the leader, so it will be a nice fight.”

Rivola’s leadership passed its biggest test when Martin agitated to get out of his two-year contract one season early while injured midway through the year, with the Spaniard recommitting to Aprilia after trying to use a performance clause in his contract to depart, likely to Honda.

Rivola and Aprilia held the line and eventually welcomed Martin back at a private test at Misano, and he’s hoping the 27-year-old can get a clear run at starting and sustaining a season in 2026.

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“I’m really looking forward to see Jorge in Sepang [for pre-season testing] next year to see what we didn’t start this year, and having him working on the bike,” Rivola said.

“In a way, I understand what happened in [Martin’s] mind. If you know him, you understand there is someone super-active, the way he is thinking is super fast, he’s always overthinking. I can’t imagine a guy like that stopped on a hospital bed wondering ‘what is going to be my future?’ or ‘maybe this bike is not for me?’.

“It makes sense, and at the same time he had opportunities from the bigger manufacturers, big offers … I totally understand. But at the same time we did a big effort to have him [at Aprilia], we choose him because we had the opportunity. When you have someone like that and you have another super fast rider [in Bezzecchi], the other one will learn.

“Now, we will find ourselves with the super fast rider who is now the leader, and the champion who needs to learn from the current rider, who the champion will have to beat.

“I think we’re going to have a more relaxed [2026] season in a way, but at the same time a difficult season to manage two riders who want to win.”