UFC 321 takes place this weekend (Sat., Oct. 25, 2025) inside Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event is Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane for UFC’s Heavyweight title. Aspinall will have a chance to defend his undisputed belt for the first time here, while Gane will look to pick up that hardware for the second time in his career (it didn’t go too well the first time around).
UFC 321’s “Prelims” are headlined Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld. Other fights on the undercard include Valter Walker vs. Louie Sutherland, Ikram Aliskerov vs. Jun Yong Park and Ludovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki.
I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 321 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you’ll find all the line movement between Monday and this time of writing (Friday morning).
UFC 321 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker
Ciryl Gane comes into UFC 321 as a big underdog. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Tom Aspinall (-391 +1.4%) vs. Ciryl Gane (+298 +0.8%)
There’s not a big difference between the opening and current lines for this fight. That’s not a consistent pattern for this card, though, as you’ll find out shortly.
Despite these lines being pretty consistent, there was some movement we can talk about.
Aspinall opened at -420 and Gane opened at +295, pretty close to where we are at now. Those lines came out on July 28. Immediately after that a lot of money came in on Gane, shortening his line to +287. That also lengthened Aspinall’s line to -394.
That spike was short lived, though. On September 17 Gane’s line jumped up to +363 — representing a potential big sum that went on Aspinall (his line shortened to -477 that day). A day later the line dropped to +302. So more money on Gane, perhaps?
So it looks like, overall, Vegas and the public are pretty aligned on how big a favorite Aspinall should be in this fight. However, there may be some power players who see value on Gane. And there may be opposing players who saw Aspinall’s line lengthen a little and viewed that as a good betting opportunity.
The public were technically right about Gane in his last fight. He opened as a -240 favorite against Alexander Volkov, but public backing shortened that to -325. Gane did win the fight, though it was because of a robbery at the hands of the judges. Before that Gane was slightly faded in his fight against Serghei Spivac. He opened at -200 and closed at -170 (before then winning the fight). That was his first fight since losing, rather pathetically, to Jon Jones.
For the Jones fight Vegas had him as the -166 favorite. Betters, rightfully, dived all in on Jones, though. That meant Gane closed at +155.
The public showed Aspinall a lot of love in his last fight. He opened as a -198 favorite, but closed at -400 for his fight with Curtis Blaydes. He then put away Blaydes in about a minute.
Surprisingly, Aspinall was faded in his fight before that. He opened at the -162 favorite against Sergei Pavlovich and then closed at -105. He then put away Pavlovich in about a minute.
So the public have had mixed results in calling fights with Aspinall and Gane. Vegas has called Aspinall’s fights correct lately, but they had that big miss on making Gane the favorite versus Jones.
If they are right about Aspinall on Saturday, we’ll hear “And still!” after the main event.
Virna Jandiroba wants to cap off her winning streak with a UFC title at UFC 321. Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Mackenzie Dern (-157 -61.3%) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+129 +36%)
This fight is extremely interesting. The line movement here is the most dramatic thing I’ve seen since I started tracking these (and I’ve done this for every pay-per-view since UFC 301). Dern opened as the +164 favorite for this fight, but the public have fallen in love with her this week, flipping her to the -157 favorite.
Jandiroba’s line has, of course, gone the opposite way. She opened as the -215 favorite.
This is great news for me, since those opening lines are about where I would handicap this fight. I don’t know exactly why Dern has gotten so much support this week. Though, she’s the far more popular fighter than Jandiroba and she’s become a bit of a fan and media darling very recently.
This support was not there for her in her last fight, against Amanda Ribas (someone who derailed her hype train back at the beginning of her UFC career). She opened at +140 for that fight and closed at +165. Dern then looked pretty dominant in beating Ribas and setting up this title shot.
In her previous win, against Loopy Godinez, her +124 opening line flipped to a -125 favorite line. So she got a lot of support there, too. Still, I find this shift ahead of UFC 321 still quite strange. Maybe Mark Zuckerberg put millions on his favorite fighter?
The public have been wrong on Jandiroba in the last three fights, lengthening her favorite lines against Yan Xiaonan and Amanda Lemos and lengthening her underdog line against Godinez.
If the public are wrong on Jandiroba for a fourth time in a row, then Jandiroba is going to be the champ tomorrow (I’m sure the UFC would love that).
Mario Bautista will now look to play spoiler at UFC 321. Elsa/Getty Images
Umar Nurmagomedov (-663 -7.1%) vs. Mario Bautista (+464 +29.1%)
Nurmagomedov opened at -430, but the public think Vegas are being far too conservative with that line. The money coming in on the Dagestani has transformed him from a big favorite to a huge favorite against Bautista (who opened at +300).
The public aren’t unanimous when it comes to Nurmagomedov, though. On October 9 there was some money that came in on Bautista. That shortened his line to +255 and moved Nurmagomedov’s odds to -329. Those lines have shifted, slowly, in opposite directions since then, though.
Nurmagomedov is used to big fan support. He opened at -170 and closed at -250 before dropping a close decision to Merab Dvalishvili. He also saw his line shorten from -278 to -340 before he beat Cory Sandhagen.
Bautista was the underdog against Patchy Mix in his last fight. His +165 closing line was pretty much what he opened at, though a big bet on him did make that line dip to +135 in the middle of fight week — is it the same person who bet big on him here on October 9?
Jailton Almeida could make a big statement at UFC 321. Harry How/Getty Images
Alexander Volkov (+159 -19.7%) vs. Jailton Almeida (-194 +7.5%)
Volkov opened at +210 for this fight, but the public like the tall Russian. His line is shrinking and it’s, right now, at +159. If you like him, too, you better get on that quick. This is quite a sizeable fall in the odds. Maybe lots of people agree with Daniel Cormier and his assessment of Almeida.
This is the first time the public have backed Volkov in recent times. His underdog line lengthened in his match-ups with Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich. He, unofficially, won both those fights.
Almeida opened at -250 for this fight. Seeing his line shrink is new for him. He went from -230 to -435 before beating Serghei Spivac and he went from -286 yo -333 before beating Alexandr Romanov.
Azamat Murzakanov will get plenty of fan support at UFC 321. Elsa/Getty Images
Aleksandar Rakic (-110 -12.6%) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-111 +8%)
We’ve got another flip on our hands here.
Rakic opened as the slight underdog with +115 odds and Murzakanov was -135. But now we’ve got a pick ‘em, with the public thinking this is a much closer fight and that the more battle-tested Rakic deserves some more respect. I’m totally with them on that.
Rakic had public support in his last fight. He opened at -170 against Jiri Prochazka and then closed at -104. He was doing really well against Prochazka, until he wasn’t.
Murzakanov has gotten lots of support lately, seeing his line shrink against both Brendson Ribeiro and Alonzo Menifield. He did open as a +170 underdog against Dustin Jacoby, though. The public were right to bring him down to +140 in that fight, which he won by decision.
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UFC 321 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
The Iron Turtle returns at UFC 321. Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC
Ikram Aliskerov (-237 +9.6%) vs. Jun Yong Park (+191 -32.3%)
This is another fight where the underdog is getting a lot of public support.
The Iron Turtle Park opened at +285, but now he’s fallen to +191. At one point during the last week his odds were as low as +180.
Aliskerov opened at -350, but that immediately lengthened to -200 due to money on Park. His line then jumped to -300 before slowly moving towards where we are now.
Aliskerov was faded mightily in his last fight. He opened at -649 against Andre Muniz, but closed at -400. He then stopped Muniz in the first round.
Vegas had him at -105 when he stepped up on short notice to fight Robert Whittaker. He closed at +120 before getting stopped, quickly.
Park was faded in his last fight. He opened as a -225 favorite against Ismail Naurdiev, but closed at -175. He then took a decision (after suffering a big illegal blow).
How much damage will Mateusz Rebecki take at UFC 321? Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Ludovit Klein (-136 -32.5%) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+111 +21%)
Klein opened as the +130 underdog for this fight, but was immediately bet down to become the -136 favorite. This meant that Rebecki, who opened as the -150 favorite quickly became the +111 underdog.
This reflects my thoughts on the fight. I know both are coming off losses, but Rebecki’s loss involved far more punishment and was a lot more recent.
Klein was dominated, but not that badly hurt, against Mateusz Gamrot in his last fight. He opened at +118 and was correctly pushed to +140. Before that the public guessed right again, turning him from a -649 favorite to a -950 favorite against Roosevelt Roberts.
Rebecki has been faded ever since his loss to Diego Ferreira, where Ferreira came from behind to TKO him. Since then he’s seen his line against Myktybek Orolbai go from +100 to +250 and his line against Chris Duncan go from -240 to -225. He beat Orolbai and lost to Duncan, but took massive amounts of damage in each bout.
Nathaniel Wood draws a rising prospect at UFC 321. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Nathaniel Wood (+121 +15.4%) vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (-147 -16.2%)
Guess what? Another flip.
Wood opened at -115, but he’s now got plus odds at +121. Delgado opened at -105, but he’s now a bigger sized favorite at -147. Vegas had this as a pick ‘em, but, as you can see, the public are really liking what they are seeing from Delgado. The youngster has looked flawless through two fights, but even his biggest boosters have to admit this is his toughest test to date.
This kind of movement is new for Wood. In his last fight, a comfortable decision over Morgan Charriere, he opened at +140 but close at -102. Before beating Daniel Pineda his opening line of -350 closed at -400.
In Delgado’s last fight, a very quick win over Hyder Amil, Delgado was actually faded slightly. He opened at -132 and closed at -125. In his proper UFC debut, the public were all in on him. Vegas had him at -170 to beat Connor Matthews, but his closed as the big -480 favorite.
Hamdy Abdelwahab will try and show his bite is as bad as his bark, at UFC 321. Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Hamdy Abdelwahab (-490 -19.2%) vs. Chris Barnett (+365 +36.6%)
This fight has some of the most extreme movements on the card. Abdelwahab opened as a decent sized -230 favorite against the +195 Chris Barnett. But the public think Beast Boy is in a lot of trouble in Abu Dhabi. They have been pounding Abdelwahab to make him a very big -490 favorite.
Abdelwahab has had support in his past two fights, too, a loss to Mohammad Usman and a win over Jamal Pogues (with questionable scoring).
In his last fight Barnett opened as the +475 underdog to Kennedy Nzechukwu. He closed at +550 and was TKO’d in the first round.
At UFC 321 Mitch Raposo gets yet another tough assignment. Louis Grasse/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Azat Maksum (-462 -15.2%) vs. Mitch Raposo (+348 +30.8%)
Maksum goes into UFC 321 as the biggest favorite of his UFC career. This is despite coming off a loss. The reason for all the support is probably how good he looked in that loss, to Tagir Ulanbekov.
He opened at -250 for this fight, but that has shortened tremendously since then. Raposo opened at +210. The public were wrong on him last time out, turning his +150 to a +122 before he lost a decision to Sumudaerji.
Mizuki Inoue’s BJJ will need to be on point at UFC 321. Zhe Ji/Getty Images
Jaqueline Amorim (-432 -1.5%) vs. Mizuki Inoue (+329 -0.2%)
Amorim opened as one of the biggest favorites on the card and the public seem totally fine with that. Some big money came in on her quickly after the line opened, dropping her to -520. She quickly popped back up to -432, though.
Will Nasrat Haqparast be part of another war at UFC 321? Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Nasrat Haqparast (-108 -19.4%) vs. Quillan Salkilld (-113 +11.6%)
We have a pick’em here between the relative newcomer Salkilld and the veteran Haqparast. However, that’s only because the public were skpetical about Salkilld opening as a decent -150 favorite. Haqparast opened at +130.
After being faded slightly by the public (who didn’t buy his -410 opening odds against Anshul Jubli), the public backed Salkilld in his second UFC contest. Against Yanal Ashmouz he opened at -305 but closed at -395, before picking up his second impressive win in the Octagon.
Mackenzie Dern is getting crazy support at UFC 321. Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
UFC 321 Biggest Line Movements
TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 321:
Mackenzie Dern: From +164 underdog to -157 favorite (-61.3%) (B)Chris Barnett: From +195 underdog to a +365 underdog (+36.5%) (A)Virna Jandiroba: From -215 favorite to a +129 underdog (+36%) (D)Ludovit Klein: From +130 underdog to a -136 favorite (-32.5%) (B)Jun Yong Park: From +285 underdog to a +191 underdog (-32.3%) (C)
Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.
A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 7-43.
B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 10-10.
C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 2-7.
D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 6-4.
E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-3.
F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 2-0.
Doubt Jun Yong Park at your peril! Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC
UFC 321 Best Underdogs Bets
There’s a lot of interesting underdogs on this card. Jandiroba opened as the favorite, but betting on Dern means you can get nice plus odds on her now. I’m taking that bet, since I rate Jandiroba’s finishing higher than Dern’s and I think Dern might struggle to go five rounds in the heat with her more muscley frame.
I also think Volkov and Bautista are worth a little look. I think there’s a chance they could avoid takedowns and hurt their opponents on the feet.
My favorite underdog is Jun Yong Park, though. I think Ikram Aliskerov’s takedown defense is very untested and the Iron Turtle is the kind of man who can test that. If Aliskerov is taken off his feet, I think his chances of winning the fight reduce dramatically.
Enough about me, though, which underdogs do you like the most? Tell me in the comments below.
UNDISPUTED HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE FIGHT! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to pay-per-view (PPV) action on Sat., Oct. 25, 2025, with a blockbuster title fight set to headline UFC 321 from inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. In UFC 321’s PPV main event, Heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall, defends his title against top-ranked contender, Ciryl Gane, in a high-stakes, five-round bout. UFC 321’s PPV co-main event features a women’s Strawweight title showdown between Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern. UFC 321 will also showcase a Bantamweight clash between Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista, a Heavyweight bout pitting Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida, a Light Heavyweight matchup featuring Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov, and much more! UFC 321’s start time is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET (“Early Prelims”), 12 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard), and 2 p.m. ET (PPV main card).
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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 321 fight card, starting with the ESPN+/Disney+/FX “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. ET, before the main card start time at 2 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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