Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season wraps up with the NFL finally getting back to basics with a single Monday Night Football game, featuring the Washington Commanders and the Kansas City Chiefs. The doubleheaders were fun, but they were long.  

We’re getting a little robbed of some fun this week, because the Chiefs, newly healthy and minted once again as the best team in football, are hosting the Commanders — but the tasty Jayden Daniels vs. Patrick Mahomes matchup is off the table with the Commanders’ quarterback missing this game.

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Obviously Daniels matters a ton to this game’s spread, but he also massively impacts player props as well. A word of warning — if you think the Chiefs are going to win this game easily, be cautious of player props, because we saw Kansas City park the bus in the second half against the Raiders. It’s been an Andy Reid special for a long time now. He isn’t afraid to drain the life out of a second half if he’s sitting on a lead. 

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Best bets for Monday Night FootballChiefs -11 vs. Commanders

Yeah, that’s right. We’re laying the big number. It is a little surprising the Chiefs haven’t seen this go out further with the news about Daniels  lingering over this game all weekend, but it’s also a ton of points and  capable backup quarterback in Marcus Mariota. 

But while Mariota has a solid floor, he also limits the Commanders offensively. No offense to him, that’s just always the case when you’re replacing an athletic freak like Jayden Daniels. 

We saw what Mahomes wants to do with this full complement of weapons on hand. He came out shredding against the Raiders and was slinging touchdown passes to Rashee Rice like he was a pizza delivery guy. 

The one concern I’d have if I’m taking this number against the spread is the Chiefs’ willingness to pull the plug on the offense with anything resembling a safe lead, which is exactly what they did against Las Vegas last week. 

Monday Night Football player propsBrashard Smith Over 16.5 receiving yards

Smith’s easily eclipised this number in the Chiefs’ last four games, which is why it’s sort of surprising not to see this line higher. He’s still developing as a key part of the Kansas City offense, but it’s clear Andy Reid likes him to be involved on a weekly basis and is scheming up plenty of looks for him in the passing game.

Sixteen targets over the last four games is nothing to sneeze at, and I’d fully expect Smith to pick up four more in this game. He only sees his carries spike up if the game is a blowout, so if you like the Chiefs to roll by double digits, Smith’s carry total and rushing yard props would be correlated.  

Travis Kelce Over 3.5 receptions

The juice on this number is pretty steep (-136) but I don’t think it’s that steeep compared to what kind of deal we’re getting here with this number. Kelce caught just three passes against the Raiders last week so maybe there’s some concern about his lack of involvement with Rice back on the field. 

I get that, but I don’t think it’s necessarily a thing. Kelce is going to have plenty of games where he eats and it’s Monday night. He loves the spotlight and he’s going to get four catches in this one. The Commanders will put up some kind of fight, unlike the Raiders, and the Chiefs offense will be out on the field for a lot longer than it was during last week’s blowout. 

Marcus Mariota Over 28.5 rushing yards

Mariota’s still one of the more mobile quarterbacks in the game, at least in terms of the cagey veterans around the NFL  He’s cleared 30 yards in two of the three starts he’s made this season and was into the 20s in the other one. Against a Chiefs defense that will put pressure but probably play two safeties high to prevent any big shots, Mariota could be picking up medium chunks with his legs early and often. 

With the Chiefs explosive on offense and KC likely to hold a lead, he’ll be forced to improvise more as well, so there’s a decent chance we can get here on a single early rush. 

Anytime touchdown picksMarquise Brown +350

Don’t want to go full-blown chalk here with Rice and Kelce being so absurdly priced. Hollywood took a backseat last week with Rice returning. But he still got into the end zone and profiled as someone who the Chiefs want to keep engaged, happy and involved in the offense even with Rice back. 

The Chiefs will probably limit Brown’s snaps some moving forward because they want to keep him healthy, but they’re still going to make sure he gets his. He’s a reliable red zone threat for Mahomes, and at this price I’m willing to nibble. 

Zach Ertz +260

Ertz has scored in back-to-back games now, developing a pretty good rapport with both Daniels and now Mariota when he’s forced under center. Ertz doesn’t have the same explosiveness he used to, but he’s still a crafty veteran who is excellent at getting open underneath and in the red zone. 

With 13 targets in the last two games and a pair of scores, I’m willing to trust the usage here and look for Ertz to score.Â