DBTB –
Well, another Draft is long gone and in the books. And given the atrocious presentation of the “remote Draft” and the calls for it to return to its roots, I’m hoping this year’s Draft was merely a one-off. Not that the original is this wonderful spectacle like the NFL Draft, but it was better than that fiasco I just witnessed.
Anyways, as everyone here knows at this point, the Sabres selected big right-shot defender Radim Mrtka with their first choice. And I would argue it was a good one, but not for those inclined to short-term gratification. Mrtka will take time. He’s huge (6’6 1/2) and only came over to North America for the first time at mid-season last year. He’s got a lot to learn on and off the ice. I’m guessing he’s on the same timeline as someone like Nikita Novikov, maybe a half-year quicker just due to his raw (but impressive) talent. Defensemen always take a little longer to figure it out, especially big kids. So let me be clear: this is nothing to panic about. The Sabres have a wealth of young D-Men…Dahlin (still young!), Power, Byram, even Kesselring…plus a treasure trove of young defenders in the pipeline. So they can afford to be extra patient with Mrtka. If he turns out the way I expect him to, we’ll all be pleased with the choice in about 5 years. And the Sabres draft, to my eyes, was pretty solid. Nothing spectacular, but in terms of value, I think they got some really good quality with everyone from Mrtka to Meloche to Bedkowski to Schultz. Hardly a reach in the bunch. So a good depth builder for BFLO.
You might be wondering at this point…who cares what this guy thinks about the value the Sabres landed? What does he know? A fair question.
Judging by my performance this year, not much.
So here’s a rundown of my showing relative to my Final Mock Draft. I can say for the most part, it was not pretty. But in the interest of accountability, I will share with those of you who care how I did in the prognostication game.
In the first round, I managed to get 26 of my first rounders selected. That’s out of 32 players. That’s not very good. Over the years, I’ve typically gotten 28-30 of my first rounders chosen in Round One. Not this year. I did manage to nail several at the exact spot they were chosen, including Mrtka to the Sabres. So that was a bit of bright light in the darkness of my performance.
Round Two, I didn’t even get half right. 15 of my 2nd rounders out of 32 selected in Round Two. Usually I’m over half right. Not this time. Of note, I did have the Sabres’ 3rd round choice, David Bedkowsky, in my Round 2. So that’s value IMO. As you will remember, the Sabres did not have a Round Two selection, as they had traded it away. Unfortunately, I had Ben Kindell at #42 overall, but in reality, he went at #11 overall to Pittsburgh. So a big whiff on that one!
Round Three was, again, a disappointment. Only 7 of my 3rd rounders were selected in the actual 3rd Round. On a good note, I had future Sabres’ draftee Melvin Novotny in my 3rd round (he later went to the Sabres in 7th round). On a really bad note, I had 5 players who didn’t even GET DRAFTED in my 3rd round. So..bleh.
Round Four turned out quite well, considering where things were trending. I matched my Round Three with 7 out of 32, AND I managed to get the Sabres drafting goaltender Samuel Meloche in Round Four. Now, to be fair (and this is a bit tough to follow), I had the Sabres choosing Meloche at #103 overall. Instead, they selected him at #116 overall. So a small reach. But they selected Matous Kucharcik at #103, and I had him in that same range at #107 overall. Considering there’s some rumblings that Meloche could be one of Canada’s goalies on their World Junior team this winter, that might turn out to be a nice move by Buffalo.
Round Five reverted back to normal, as the Draft starts to typically venture far afield at this point. I only managed 4 out of 32 here. The Sabres selected LHD Noah Laberge from the Q with their 5th round choice. I did not have Laberge getting drafted…he was just outside of my 7th round (basically, he was the 5th guy out). So I did not shower myself with glory in this Round.
Round Six went a bit better. Again, a meager 4 out of 32, so essentially the same as Round Five in terms of overall performance. This time, I had forward Ashton Schultz going as the top pick in Round Six…the Sabres later selected him with the 7th choice in Round Six. So I was pretty close again! Sadly, in the totality, it was a dud, as nearly half the players I had going in Round Six were not selected anywhere in the Draft.
Round Seven was surprising for a number of reasons. This was easily my best performance in the final round of the Draft since I’ve been doing this here at DBTB, with 8 (EIGHT!) players placed in the correct Round. I stunned myself! As far as the Sabres go, I did not have them selecting Melvin Novotny (had him going in the 3rd round…oops!), Yegeny Prokhorov (although this could be a real strong sleeper of a choice), or Ryan Rucinski (I did not have him being drafted). So I finished strong!
As you can see, I am no better or worse than any of you out there who take in a few prospect games every year. So don’t rely on my meandering commentary, search out your own favorite junior team(s) and get comfy in your own Big Chair and watch away. In no time, you will surpass me in Draft knowledge!
Interesting how the twists and turns of this past Draft took me on a trip. At this time last year, I was feeling pretty confident that about 8-10 centermen – many with size – would dominate the Draft and challenge James Hagens for #1 overall. But things happen. Guys get hurt, players have a hard time adjusting to a new league, a new continent, new expectations. And most of the time, it’s just that I whiffed in my estimation of that player. I thought Roger McQueen for sure would be a Top 3 choice; Ivan Ryabkin would be Top 5. Players like Florian Schenk, Mikkel Erikssen, Mike Misa, Anton Frondell, Will Moore, David Lewandowski, Caleb Desnoyers, and Jan Chovan would all make a run for a lottery spot. And Matthew Schaefer wasn’t even on my radar as a contender for the #1 slot. So while this draft coming up seems heavy on wings and D-Men, and light on centers (very light on goalies), by June of 2026 it might be completely flipped on its head.
Next year’s Draft year will be incredibly interesting. Gavin McKenna is the runaway #1 overall at this point, and to many people’s surprise, he’s off to the NCAA after shattering records in the WHL last season. This is the biggest change in competition since Auston Matthews went to Switzerland in his Draft year, so it will be interesting to see how McKenna performs. Likely, very well. No one is really close to McKenna, so he stands alone at the top without any real challengers at this point. Then it’s kind of a jumble. In these earliest stages of the Draft, it looks like a rebound year for the Russians with some really talented kids – some staying in Mother Russia, others making the jump to North America – and the Canadians and Swedes with several talents that could be First Round selections. The US is light again this season, and the Finns look to be better after a rock-bottom year when only one Finn went in the top 2 rounds, but still not great. The Slovaks and Czechs continue to churn out some really talented kids, although not approaching the Big Four hockey nations…yet.
The draft season will really start on August 11th with the Hlinka tournament, this year in both Czechia and Slovakia (including at the Pavol Demitra Ice Stadium, named after the dearly departed former NHL star!). Former Sabre legend Kevin Porter will be coaching Team USA’s entry. The teams haven’t been determined as of yet, so more to come on that.
Speaking of which, here’s my Watch List, in no particular order, for next season’s draft:
Gavin McKenna, 6’0 C/LW, NCAA
Keaton Verhoeff, 6’4 RHD, WHL
Viggo Bjorck, 5’10 C/W, SWE
Olivers Murnieks 6’1 C, USHL
Daxon Rudolph, 6’1 RHD, WHL
Ryan Roobroeck, 6’4 C/W, OHL
Tynan Lawrence, 6’0 C, USHL
Elton Hermansson, 6’1 RHD, SWE
Maddox Dagenais, 6’4 C, QMJHL
Ivar Stenberg, 6’0 W, SWE
Lavr Gashilov, 6’2 C, RUS
Xavier Villeneuve, 5’11 LHD, QMJHL
Simon Katolicky, 6’4 W, FIN
Casey Mutryn, 6’2 C, US NTDP
Adam Novotny, 6’1 W, CZE
Ryan Lin, 5’11 RHD, WHL
Viktor Fyodorov, 5’11 C, RUS
Landon Nycz, 6’2 LHD, USHL
Colin Fitzgerald, 6’2 C, OHL
Chase Reid, 6’2 RHD, USHL
Adam Valentini, 5’11 W, USHL
Joe Iginla, 5’10 W, WHL
Caluum Croskery, 6’0 LHD, USHL
Oscar Holmertz, 6’0 C, SWE
Luke Schairer, 6’2 RHD, US NTDP
Lars Steiner, 5’10 RW, QMJHL
Yegor Shilov, 6’1 C, RUS
Tobias Tomik, 6’1 C/W, SVK
Nikita Ovcharov, 6’2 RW, RUS
Oscar Hemming, 6’4 LW, FIN
Will Hakansson, 6’4 LHD, SWE
William Yared, 6’2 RW, QMJHL
Enjoy, my DBTB friends! Here we go! A new draft season is upon us.