South Africa will lose the number one ranking if they suffer a repeat of their 2015 defeat to Japan, with Ireland or New Zealand ready to take their place.
The Springboks famously succumbed 34-32 to the Brave Blossoms at the Rugby World Cup a decade ago and Eddie Jones’ men have another opportunity to inflict more misery on their opponents.
Should they go down to the 13th-ranked Japanese, they would lose at least two ranking points, taking them down to 90.20.
Even a draw would see their total decrease, opening the door for either Ireland or the All Blacks to move to the summit when they face-off in Chicago.
The impact of Ireland v All Blacks clash
Should the Boks win, however, then neither the Irish or Kiwis can usurp them, irrespective of what happens at Solder Field.
The highest points Andy Farrell’s men can reach this weekend is 91.36 should they win by more than 15, while Scott Robertson’s side can reach 91.49 with the same margin of victory.
Either way, those top three teams are in a good position when it comes to the Rugby World Cup draw, which takes place at the end of the year following the November internationals.
Countries are aiming for a top-six placing in order to avoid the biggest nations in the pool stages.
Neither the Springboks, All Blacks or Ireland can drop to fourth after this round of matches, with France and England too far behind to take advantage.
Les Bleus do not play this weekend, while Steve Borthwick’s outfit are at home to the seventh-placed Wallabies.
England are currently on a healthy 87.64 points and could break the 88-point barrier – and fourth place in the standings – with a win by more than 15 points at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham, but a loss would increase the jitters with the World Cup draw looming.
A victory for Australia by 15 points or less would still see the Red Rose ahead of them, but a large triumph would see them overtake the English.
The Wallabies have shown plenty of improvement under Joe Schmidt over the past 12 months and they would be on 85.90 should they hammer England on Saturday.
ENGLAND (5) 87.64 v AUSTRALIA (7) 83.30
England win by 15 points or less – England 87.91, Australia 83.03
England win by more than 15 points – England 88.04, Australia 82.90
Draw – England 86.91, Australia 84.03
Australia win by 15 points or less – England 85.91, Australia 85.03
Australia win by more than 15 points – England 85.04, Australia 85.90
SOUTH AFRICA (1) 92.20 v JAPAN (13) 73.25
South Africa win by 15 points or less – South Africa 92.20, Japan 73.25 (No change)
South Africa win by more than 15 points – South Africa 92.20, Japan 73.25 (No change)
Draw – South Africa 91.20, Japan 74.25
Japan win by 15 points or less – South Africa 90.20, Japan 75.25
Japan win by more than 15 points – South Africa 89.20, Japan 76.25
SCOTLAND (8) 81.57 v USA (15) 67.40
Scotland win by 15 points or less – Scotland 81.57, USA 67.40 (No change)
Scotland win by more than 15 points – Scotland 81.57, USA 67.40 (No change)
Draw – Scotland 80.57, USA 68.40
USA win by 15 points or less – Scotland 79.57, USA 69.40
USA win by more than 15 points – Scotland 78.57, USA 70.40
IRELAND (3) 89.83 v NEW ZEALAND (2) 90.02
Ireland win by 15 points or less – Ireland 90.85, New Zealand 89.00
Ireland win by more than 15 points – Ireland 91.36, New Zealand 88.49
Draw – Ireland 89.85, New Zealand 90.00
New Zealand win by 15 points or less – Ireland 88.85, New Zealand 91.00
New Zealand win by more than 15 points – Ireland 88.36, New Zealand 91.49
Latest World Rugby rankings
As of 31/10/2025
1 South Africa 92.20
2 New Zealand 90.02
3 Ireland 89.83
4 France 87.82
5 England 87.64
6 Argentina 83.82
7 Australia 83.30
8 Scotland 81.57
9 Fiji 81.16
10 Italy 77.77
11 Georgia 74.69
12 Wales 74.05
13 Japan 73.25
14 Spain 69.12
15 USA 67.40
16 Samoa 66.94
17 Chile 66.72
18 Tonga 66.66
19 Uruguay 66.59
20 Portugal 66.44
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