1
Dodgers
Key free agents: IF/OF Kiké Hernández, RP Kirby Yates, RP Michael Kopech, IF Miguel Rojas … The champs stay on top, especially bringing back an incredibly stacked rotation along with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith leading the offense.
1
93-69
2
Brewers
Key free agents: RP Shelby Miller, I guess? That’s it. The Brewers are coming back intact and I’m done betting against them, at least in the regular season.
1
97-65
3
Blue Jays
Key free agents: IF Bo Bichette, SP Chris Bassitt, SP Max Scherzer, IF Isiah Kiner-Falefa … There’s an awful lot to like about what the Jays did this year and it’s not hard to believe it could carry over into next year. Surely they’ll get more from Anthony Santander, but I’d feel a lot better if Bichette had already extended.
2
94-68
4
Yankees
Key free agents: OF Cody Bellinger, CF Trent Grisham, RP Devin Williams, RP Luke Weaver, 1B Paul Goldschmidt … There’s retooling to be done this offseason for Brian Cashman, but the Yankees still have the best hitter in baseball and a good supporting lineup. The rotation has Max Fried and Carlos Rodón and gets Gerrit Cole back sometime early in the season.
—
94-68
5
Phillies
Key free agents: DH Kyle Schwarber, SP Ranger Suárez, C J.T. Realmuto … It feels like they’ll re-sign Schwarber, but we can’t be sure and without him, that lineup doesn’t look too scary right now. They’ll still have a great rotation and contend, though.
4
96-66
6
Cubs
Key free agents: OF Kyle Tucker, RP Brad Keller, RP Caleb Thielbar, RP Drew Pomeranz … The Cubs can mostly run it back and also will be getting catcher Miguel Amaya and frontline starter Justin Steele back. They look good, but not great.
1
92-70
7
Red Sox
Key free agents: 3B Alex Bregman … We can probably expect steps forward in full seasons from players like Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer. Will Lucas Giolito’s option be picked up? There are some questions, but good upside.
2
89-73
8
Astros
Key free agents: SP Framber Valdez, C/1B Victor Caratini … Better health in the lineup and rotation means this is probably the best team in the AL West. It’s a well-rounded roster, albeit not an elite one.
4
87-75
9
Mets
Key free agents: 1B Pete Alonso, OF Cedric Mullins, SP Griffin Canning, RP Tyler Rogers, OF Starling Marte, RP Ryan Helsley … There’s a lot of talent here. David Stearns can’t just decide to go cheap on the rotation again this offseason, though those talented young arms we saw late in the season sure help matters.
5
83-79
10
Mariners
Key free agents: 3B Eugenio Suárez, 1B Josh Naylor … I have concerns with the Mariners. The lineup isn’t nearly as powerful with those two players hitting free agency and we definitely can’t expect Cal Raleigh to come close to hitting 60 homers again. The worry (sorry, Mariners fans) was that everything had to come together this past October.
4
90-72
11
Braves
Key free agents: DH Marcell Ozuna, RP Raisel Iglesias … The Braves went 30-24 in the final two months last season and now have a much healthier rotation. We’ve seen enough warts from the offense to be concerned, but it could still end up looking loaded. This might be an aggressive bump, but I’m comfortable with it. They’ll be good.
10
76-86
12
Padres
Key free agents: SP Dylan Cease, SP Michael King, IF Luis Arraez, 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn … That bullpen is gonna be killer and Joe Musgrove will return to the rotation. They’ll need a bounce-back from Jackson Merrill and still, that lower half of the lineup is not scaring anyone. What does A.J. Preller have up his sleeve this offseason?
4
90-72
13
Guardians
Key free agents: OF Lane Thomas … As long as the Guardians don’t start selling to save money, they’ll return mostly the same team that made a late run to win the AL Central. They seem to always punch above their weight. What’s going to happen with Emmanuel Clase?
3
88-74
14
Tigers
Key free agents: 2B Gleyber Torres, RP Kyle Finnegan, SP Chris Paddack … They’d better not trade Tarik Skubal. That would be embarrassing. There have to be concerns about the second half of last season lingering too.
3
87-75
15
Royals
Key free agents: OF Mike Yastrzemski, RP Hunter Harvey … A full, healthy season from Cole Ragans gives a big boost to the rotation, but it would sure be nice to find more offense around Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino.
—
82-80
16
Rangers
Key free agents: SP Merrill Kelly, SP Tyler Mahle, SP Patrick Corbin … It’s top-heavy with star power. There’s certainly enough here to jump back into contention and win another World Series, but there are concerns all over the place.
3
81-81
17
Reds
Key free agents: RP Emilio Pagán, SP Nick Martinez, SP Zack Littel, IF/OF Miguel Andujar, UT Santiago Espinal, IF Jeimer Candelario … They’ve got to find a way to inject some power into this offense, especially in order to take advantage of their home ballpark. That rotation could be special.
4
83-79
18
Diamondbacks
Key free agents: SP Zac Gallen … The rotation needs to be dealt with and the lineup could use some rounding into shape with better supporting cast for Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll.
1
80-82
19
Giants
Key free agents: SP Justin Verlander … There’s a good foundation here both in the lineup with Willy Adames, Rafael Devers and Matt Chapman and then in the rotation with Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. It’s a big offseason for Buster Posey, starting with his outside-the-box managerial hire.
3
81-81
20
Athletics
Key free agents: RP Sean Newcomb and a few others who aren’t major needle-movers. There is so much to love about this offense. Is the front office going to equip them with enough pitching to contend? Something to keep in mind: the A’s lost 24 of 27 between May 5 and June 5 last season but still finished 76-86. If they were just not historically bad for that small stretch, they’d have contended. Something else to consider? They went 36-45 in home games last year. That has to take its toll on a team. Still, they might be my sleeper next season.
3
76-86
21
Orioles
Key free agents: SP Tomoyuki Sugano, SP Zach Eflin … I love what Trevor Rogers seems to have become down the stretch and the return of Kyle Bradish also helps the rotation, but you need more than two reliable starters. Is the offense actually good or does it just have a few good (or better, in the case of Gunnar Henderson) hitters? I’m not quite as bullish on a bounce-back here as I am with the Braves.
3
75-87
22
Rays
Key free agents: SP Adrian Houser … There are also club options on Brandon Lowe and Pete Fairbanks, though this probably means they’ll pick those up and trade them. This is overall a similar but lesser operation to the Guardians and even Brewers. They’ll punch above their weight, but they just aren’t very good right now.
—
77-85
23
Marlins
Key free agents: None. … Very interesting offseason on tap here. Do the Marlins trade players close to free agency? They ended up only four games out of a playoff spot this past season. They are interesting.
5
79-83
24
Twins
Key free agents: C Christian Vásquez … After what we saw at the trade deadline and knowing what we know about ownership, methinks it’s about to get ugly in Minnesota. If I was ranking based on who I thought would get traded, the Twins would be lower, but they still have some dudes here.
3
70-92
25
Pirates
Key free agents: OF Tommy Pham, OF Andrew McCutchen …The return of Jared Jones means the Pirates should have a great rotation behind Paul Skenes, Jones, Mitch Keller and Bubba Chandler by the second half of the season. Alas, the offense is awful and I don’t see that changing this offseason. Owner Bob Nutting should be embarrassed, but the problem is he’s not. He doesn’t care. I hate this situation for you, Pirates fans.
—
71-91
26
Cardinals
Key free agents: SP Miles Mikolas … The front office has changed hands now and the Cardinals are in a rebuild, even if it’s only a short one. They aren’t going to totally bottom out, but it’s hard to trust that they’ll be good yet.
6
78-84
27
Angels
Key free agents: SP Kyle Hendricks, RP Kenley Jansen, 3B Yoán Moncada, SP Tyler Anderson, IF Luis Rengifo … There are interesting young players like Zach Neto and Jo Adell along with veteran presences in Mike Trout and Jorge Soler. I like Yusei Kikuchi leading the rotation. They just don’t seem close to winning.
1
72-90
28
Nationals
Key free agents: 1B Josh Bell … I was actually thinking there was a chance the Nats would be a pesky non-contender last season. Instead, they were just bad. And now, it looks like a failed rebuild that might need to start over. They are awful. At least they won it all in 2019! So many teams go through cycles of contention and don’t win championships (ask the Guardians).
—
66-96
29
White Sox
Key free agents: None, really. … The White Sox went through waves of looking somewhat competent last year, but it’s still a long road back to contention. They probably have a few pieces from their next contender, but not many. They aren’t ready yet.
—
60-102
30
Rockies
Key free agents: SP Germán Márquez, SP Austin Gomber … I don’t know if I can think of anything positive to say. Pathetic franchise right now.
—
43-119