Major League Baseball wastes no time getting to its offseason. A mere five days after the conclusion of a whirlwind World Series, free agency formally opens Thursday.
But there’s a hurry-up-and-wait feel to the free-agent process, which can drag all the way into spring training in February. That dynamic could be exacerbated this winter by labor unrest, with the sport’s collective bargaining agreement set to expire after next season.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the big issues at play this offseason — the big names, the big issues, the timeline to consider and the teams with the most to gain.
Free agency opens today. Will any players be left by tomorrow morning?
Oh no, you’re thinking of how free agency often operates in the other North American sports, with an initial flurry of activity in the first 24 to 48 hours. Because baseball doesn’t have a salary cap, there is far less urgency for teams and players to come to immediate agreements. There’s generally very little action the first few days of free agency, with the possible exception of some players re-signing with their 2025 teams.
When does the real action start?
Typically not until the final week of November, in the lead-up to the sport’s Winter Meetings. This year, those take place Dec. 7 to 10 in Orlando. In a normal year, a big name or two comes off the board ahead of the meetings, and the cascading reaction starts to take shape that week. For instance, Juan Soto’s agreement with the New York Mets last winter was initially reported the night before the Winter Meetings started.
How does labor unrest and the impending expiration of the collective bargaining agreement affect the market?
I’d say that’s the billion-dollar question, but both sides are still haggling over its specific value. The CBA expires at the end of the 2026 season, and the industry expectation, fueled by comments from commissioner Rob Manfred, is that the owners will lock out the players the same way they did after the 2021 season. The winter before that lockout, we did see more one-year deals signed in free agency, though the COVID-shortened 2020 season likely had as much to do with that as incipient labor unrest.
In the face of a lockout in late November 2021, there was a flurry of free-agent activity, much of which was for serious money: Max Scherzer set a new record for annual average value, and the Rangers signed Corey Seager and Marcus Semien for a combined $500 million. So it’s hard to argue that the lockout was a serious impediment at the time.
The likelihood this winter is that several teams point to the potential lockout as a reason to avoid longer-term commitments; those may or may not be the same teams that already avoid longer-term commitments anyway. Four teams have yet to sign a free agent to a three-year contract this winter; four more have failed to do so over the last three offseasons.
How good is this free-agent class?
This class probably ranks in the middle of the last decade; it lacks MVP and Cy Young talent at the very top, but it boasts more depth than most classes. If you’re shopping for a mid-rotation starter, a closer or a first baseman, you have your share of options. If you’re looking for a corner outfielder, you might prefer the trade market.
Who are the top names?
There is no Soto or Shohei Ohtani at the very top of the market. However, outfielder Kyle Tucker, formerly of the Chicago Cubs, has a reasonable chance of landing a contract worth more than $400 million. (Jim Bowden predicted Tucker will get $427 million, I suggested $460 million.) Shortstop Bo Bichette, near-hero of the World Series for the Toronto Blue Jays, could get more than $200 million.
On the pitching side, the Astros’ Framber Valdez, Padres’ Dylan Cease and Phillies’ Ranger Suárez could all net deals in excess of $150 million. The Mets’ Edwin DÃaz and Padres’ Robert Suárez are the top relief pitchers available.
Most of the time, the market at an individual position moves in tiers, and really gets going after the top name in a tier comes off the board. Don’t expect Cody Bellinger — probably the second-best outfielder available — to sign until after Tucker does, for example. But players further down the outfield hierarchy don’t need to wait on Tucker to the same extent.
Framber Valdez was 13-11 with a 1.24 WHIP and 3.66 ERA for the Astros last season. (Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
Who are the unfamiliar names who can alter the market?
Just about every year now, the free-agent market is infused with talent from Japan and Korea. Slugger Munetaka Murakami has been on major-league teams’ radar for half a decade; he broke Sadaharu Oh’s long-held single-season home run record for a Japanese-born player with 56 long balls in 2022. Kazuma Okamoto has posted similar production in Japan, though he’s four years older than Murakami and owns less raw power. While both have played both first base and third base in Japan, the expectation is they’re better suited to first base in the majors.
And don’t overlook starter Tatsuya Imai, who is the youngest starter available in this market. (He turns 28 next May.) He throws in the high 90s despite standing less than six feet tall — the latter perhaps less a concern after the 5-10 Yoshinobu Yamamoto dominated the World Series for the Dodgers.
Who might take longer to sign?
Agent Scott Boras is known for being especially patient in the market; it’s not unusual for some of his biggest-name clients to sign just before or even into spring training. (This happened last year with the Mets’ Pete Alonso, who is a free agent again this winter.) Boras’ other top clients this winter include Cease, Ranger Suárez, Alex Bregman and Bellinger.
A final decision on whether Imai, another Boras client, will be posted by his NPB team, the Seibu Lions, has yet to be made. That could mildly delay the market for front-line starters.
What teams are in position to be the most aggressive?
You always start with the two-time defending champion Dodgers, who signed a combined 12 players off our top-40 big boards over the last two years — double the number of the next closest team, their rival San Francisco Giants. The Giants figure to be aggressive again this winter as former MVP catcher Buster Posey remakes the roster.
The Mets and Phillies will also continue to spend in the National League. We could see a revival of the old spending wars in the AL East: The pennant-winning Blue Jays are in line to bring back much of their core group, the Yankees and Red Sox each made the postseason, and the Orioles need to rebound from as disappointing a season as any team had in 2025. And the Detroit Tigers could be a real fulcrum of the offseason. Their Cy Young starter, Tarik Skubal, is only a year away from free agency himself. So the Tigers can either spend to build the best possible team around Skubal now, or trade the ace away and attempt to reload.