Now that the Denver Broncos are in the thick of the race for the top seed in the AFC, the team’s schedule down the stretch carries significant weight. The Broncos (7-2) still have to play the nine-time defending AFC West champion Chiefs twice in their last eight games. Denver also has matchups against the NFC North-leading Packers (5-2-1), the playoff-contending Jaguars (5-3) and the second-place Chargers (6-3) left on the schedule.

With that slate of games ahead, Thursday night’s matchup against the 2-6 Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field in Denver seems like a meaningless contest against a struggling squad that has lost six of its last seven. But it actually carries huge significance. 

According to SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team and Projection Model, the Broncos’ AFC West title hopes would take a major hit with a loss the Raiders on Thursday. Denver enters Week 10 with a one-game lead over Los Angeles, which already has beaten the Broncos this season, with Kansas City (5-4) another game back. The Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, says Denver has a 54.0% chance to win the division, which is greater than the Chiefs’ (27.3%) and Chargers’ (18.8%) chances combined.

But if the Broncos lose to Las Vegas, their probability crashes 17.9% to 36.1%. According to the model, only one other team could do more damage to its division title chances with a loss in Week 10 more than Denver: the Los Angeles Rams (6-2), who are tied for the lead in the NFC West but face the 49ers (6-3) on Sunday. 

TeamCurrent chance to win divisionChance with Week 10 lossDifferentialRams40.1%21.1%19.0%Broncos54.0%36.1%17.9%Bills58.6%43.2%15.4%Seahawks42.3%28.4%13.9%Lions39.4%26.5%12.9%

Conversely, the Broncos would increase their chances of winning the AFC West with a win on Thursday by just 2.8%, from 54.0% to 56.8%.

Translation: Denver has much to lose and virtually nothing to gain against the Raiders.

“To us, first, we’ve got to win [these division games],” Broncos quarterback Bo Nix said earlier this week. “These are the ones that have the most weight to them. These are the ones that you’ve gotta go in there and win to set yourself up for the playoffs. So as a team, these are the most important for us.”

Denver is a 9.5-point favorite against Las Vegas.

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On the other hand, the Projection Model gives Las Vegas a 0.04% chance to even make the playoffs. That percentage would inch up to 0.13% with an upset of Denver.

However, the significance of a Raiders win would impact the other end of the standings. Las Vegas enters Week 10 with a 5.0% chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft and a 33.0% chance for a top-three pick. 

TeamCurrent for No. 1 pickChance for top-three pickTitans47.2%81.4%Saints16.8%46.9%Jets14.5%42.2%Dolphins9.2%36.5%Raiders5.0%33.0%

Those numbers would be impacted negatively — or positively, depending on your point of view — by a Raiders victory on Thursday.

But Las Vegas coach Pete Carroll is focused on winning.

“[The Broncos] are playing great football,” Carroll said this week. “We’re going to have to answer in all phases. We have to take care of the football on offense, we have to stop them and get off the field on third down. We can’t have no issues on special teams and keep this thing clean to have a chance. When you play a big-time team like these guys are, that’s how you have to play. And so we take this as a championship opportunity for us.”