As the federal Coalition pitches what it says is the “Australian way” of lowering emissions, a new global report details how China’s way has transformed it into a global economic powerhouse, and delivered significant milestones on pollution reduction.
The Global Carbon Project (GCP), headquartered in Australia at CSIRO, has released its annual Global Carbon Budget, including an estimate of greenhouse gas emissions from key sources, broken down by sector and country.
Results this year are mixed, with the latest data showing that carbon emissions look likely to rise again very slightly in 2025 – putting the world on a trajectory that could hit the 1.5°C warming limit within just four years.
The report projects emissions from fossil fuel use – which account for about 90 per cent of all emissions – will rise by 1.1 per cent in 2025, reaching 42.2 billion tonnes in the atmosphere, although emissions from land-use are expected to decrease.
But there are some bright spots, including that emissions in China – currently the world’s biggest polluter, responsible for 32 per cent of global emissions – are likely have reached a peak, or at least started to plateau.
“We’ve certainly been very pleased to see a confirmation of incredibly slow [emissions] growth in China,” said Pep Canadell, GCP executive director and chief research scientist at CSIRO, in a briefing ahead of the report’s release.
“I think that from the China point of view, the peak emissions that we talk about – and it could be a plateau more than a peak – it is really about to happen, if it’s not really happening already,” Canadell said.
Frank Jotzo, head of energy at the Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions and director at the Centre for Climate and Energy Policy at The Australian National University, says China efforts at decarbonisation have been driven by a “unique” mix of motivating factors.
“China really has grabbed the economic and business advantage from clean energy,” Jotzo told the briefing on Wednesday.
“China is by far the largest investor in in clean energy domestically, and by a very long way the largest global producer of clean energy kit …be it solar panels, …wind turbines, now also electric cars and various other componentry for grids, etc, etc.
“And so China has been successful in positioning to make this really their business, and that was aided both by industrial strategy and a strong desire to clean up China’s domestic energy supply system, including because of air pollution.
“If you’re in Beijing now, for the first time, actually, in decades, on many, many days, you actually see the surrounding mountains in Beijing… which has a really important quality of life and not to mention health effect.
“And so China has a vital interest in actually pushing the world towards more clean energy,” he adds. “I mean, the amount of wind turbine, solar transmission investment in China is staggering.”
But Canadell stresses that unless every country and government does its part in cutting emissions and supporting the technologies required for the task, then we will not fix the problem of dangerous global warming.
“There’s absolutely no doubt the structural changes going on in China are so massive, the growth of renewable energy … is just absolutely out of this world. No one is matching this,” Canadell says.
But “the task is enormous,” he adds. “It’s not that we’re trying to stop [emissions] growth, we’re trying to stop growth and then go to net zero.
“So yeah, everyone has to contribute, otherwise we will certainly not fix the problem.”
And Jotzo warns against falling for the argument currently being prosecuted by ‘moderate’ Liberals like Tim Wilson that Australia’s climate policy should not be “tied” to international standards, but proportionate to its fractional contribution to global emissions.
“I mean, this is the oldest argument in the ‘let’s not do anything playbook,’” Jotzo said on Wednesday. “And it’s complete nonsense.
“Because… for example, China could say, ‘oh, we consist of however many provinces …and each province only accounts for, on average, 1% of global emissions. So why should any of our provinces do anything?’
“Australia is roughly in the area of 1% of global emissions, a bit over 1% of global GDP, less than 1% of global population.
“So [we’re] small, but we’re very highly visible …not just because of the koala factor, but because among the rich countries, we have some very, very specific circumstances.
“There were 10 years or so where we as a nation seemed to work very hard to attain climate pariah status, right? And that has changed.
“The world 1763012048 knows that Australia is really tremendously successful in that transition to renewable energy,” Jotzo says.
“For a country that is heavy on fossil fuels to say the future is renewable really matters.”
And then there is the huge economic opportunity that a shift to renewables can deliver.
“What can we learn from [China]? Well, deploy, deploy, deploy,” says Jotzo.
“Australia is one of the many countries that actually benefits from what China has done … I mean, solar panels are now so cheap you might as well use it as a fencing material.
“That would not have happened without China’s tremendous manufacturing effort and policy to support it
“So now, that’s the lesson: Let’s make use of those cheap opportunities for zero emissions energy.”
