Even as the Kansas City Chiefs regain more of their playmakers at wide receiver, Travis Kelce remains that consistent, reliable, comfortable option for Patrick Mahomes as the future Hall of Fame tight end has more than 50 receiving yards in five straight games. Defenses are aware Mahomes is looking for Kelce, and yet, they still can’t do much to completely remove him from the game plan, and the SportsLine model projects Kelce to have another efficient showing on Sunday, backing his Over 44.5 receiving yards as one of its Week 11 NFL player prop best bets for tight ends at DraftKings. The Chiefs play the Broncos, and although Denver has one of the best defenses in the NFL, Kelce has gone Over this total in four of his last five games against the Broncos. 

The model also sees value in two other prominent tight ends in Week 11 for NFL player props. It’s backing Ravens TE Mark Andrews to go Over 28.5 receiving yards, while projecting Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts to finish Under 48.5 receiving yards in Week 11 NFL TE props at DraftKings. Andrews has gone Under this total in back-to-back games, but the Ravens play the Browns, and Andrews has gone Over this number in five of his last six games against Cleveland, making it a top play for the model when looking over Week 11 NFL props at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 on a 47-32 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three Sunday NFL TE prop picks for NFL Week 11 at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

Travis Kelce, Chiefs, Over 44.5 receiving yards (-109)Mark Andrews, Ravens, Over 28.5 receiving yards (-115)Kyle Pitts, Falcons, Under 48.5 receiving yards (-113)

Combining the model’s three picks into an NFL parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +575 (risk $100 to win $575):

Travis Kelce, Chiefs, Over 44.5 receiving yards (-109, DraftKings)

Rashee Rice’s return hasn’t led to the drastic decrease in production to Kelce that many feared/predicted, as the future Hall of Fame tight end has more than 50 yards in each of their three games together. Kelce is averaging 73 yards per game in those contests. Sunday against Denver is a pivotal matchup for Kansas City coming off a loss, and Patrick Mahomes seems to rely on Kelce even more in those uber-important contests. The 36-year-old tight end has gone Over this total in four of his last five games against the Broncos, and the model projects Kelce for 48 yards on Sunday.

Mark Andrews, Ravens, Over 28.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)

Andrews isn’t the same pivotal pass-catcher to Baltimore’s offense he was a few years ago, but he remains an effective part of the offense. The 30-year-old has at least three receptions in three of his last four games, and at 8.4 yards per reception on the season, those averages put him right at the 28.5 receiving yards number. Now, combine with the Ravens playing the Browns, who have allowed 59 points over the last two weeks, and the Baltimore offense could find offensive success on Sunday. Andrews has gone Over this total in five of his last six games against the Browns, and the model projects Andrews for 32 receiving yards on Sunday.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons, Under 48.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings)

Pitts has gone Under this total in each of his last two games, finishing with exactly 38 yards in each contest. He’s also finished Under this number in five of his last eight games heading into a matchup against the Panthers. Pitts had 39 yards in his first meeting against Carolina this year. He’s been the third-most targeted pass-catcher on Atlanta in each of the last two weeks with Drake London back on the field, compared to at times being the No. 1 option with London out. London is averaging 11.6 targets over his last five contests. The model doesn’t project the opportunities to be there for Pitts to finish Over 48.5 receiving yards, projecting him for 44 yards on Sunday.