COP30 and the Paris Agreement

Australia and other governments are currently meeting in Brazil for COP30 to determine just how much the world is willing to do to address the threat posed by climate change, as the pact signed 10 years ago in Paris faces its own existential crisis.

Government representatives have travelled to Belém in northern Brazil for the latest round of the United Nations Climate Change Conference that began on Monday, at a time of global political uncertainty and massive investments in new fossil fuel infrastructure.

Under the Paris Agreement, 195 parties pledged to take measures to keep global average temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Last week, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)’s latest “Emissions Gap Report” suggested the world was “very likely” to breach this threshold within the next decade.

Australian climate scientist Bill Hare says negotiations in Belém will be a “test about whether the world is serious about fixing the projection where we’re heading now, which is towards 2 and 3 degrees”.

“My feeling is that the Paris Agreement is at stake in this COP,” Hare says. “If you can’t deal with this central problem where the world has agreed on a temperature goal … it’s missing it by a mile and a half.”

If countries live up to their commitments, global average temperatures are expected to rise between 2.3 and 2.5 degrees by 2100 – a reduction on previous forecasts – but without further ambition the world is still on track for 2.8 degrees of warming.

“The magnitude and duration of this overshoot must be limited as much as possible. Each year of delayed action locks in carbon-intensive infrastructure,” the UNEP report said. “It results in greater losses for people and ecosystems, higher adaptation costs and a heavier reliance on costly and uncertain carbon dioxide (CO2) removal.”

UN Secretary-General António Guterres lashed leaders in a pre-COP speech for their “moral failure – and deadly negligence”.

“The hard truth is that we have failed to ensure we remain below 1.5 degrees,” he said. “After decades of denial and delay, science now tells us that a temporary overshoot beyond the 1.5 limit – starting at the latest in the early 2030s – is inevitable.”

Even as the need for action becomes more pressing, global efforts to address climate change have come under attack, particularly from the United States, where President Donald Trump has repeatedly described global heating as a “hoax”.

Since withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement on the first day of his second term – as he did during his first term – Trump has sought not only to lock in the extraction and consumption of new fossil fuels but also to disrupt any international negotiation that would frustrate this push.

The Trump administration announced it would not send personnel to the climate talks in Brazil. It is already working to derail any firm commitments to emissions reduction.

When the International Maritime Organization (IMO) met last month to vote on a framework to curb shipping emissions, Trump threatened its 176 member countries with a range of measures including new tariffs.

“I am outraged that the International Maritime Organization is voting in London this week to pass a global Carbon Tax,” he posted on social media. “The United States will NOT stand for this Global Green New Scam Tax on Shipping, and will not adhere to it in any way, shape, or form.”

The vote was subsequently delayed.

“There are substantial risks that natural gas could crowd out investments in renewable technologies or delay the broader adoption of zero-emission energy systems. These risks must be carefully managed to ensure natural gas serves as a true bridge fuel rather than a long-term dependency that hinders progress toward decarbonisation goals.”

Brown University political economist Mark Blyth said the Trump administration has been pursuing a “strategy of carbon dominance” to protect the US fossil fuel industry, which now produces 22 per cent of the world’s oil and a quarter of its gas. It faces a growing challenge from cleaner, cheaper and more efficient renewable energy – the solar, wind and battery manufacturing that is dominated by China.

For the US, says Blyth, “the direction of travel is clear – carbon dominance is the goal”. He says the deferral of the shipping emissions deal shows the US is “still the critical actor”.

“But the real emissions frontier is China, and East and South Asia,” he says. “They can do much on their own and Chinese exports are giving them the tools.”

The positive news is that this year for the first time, renewables overtook coal as the generator of most of the world’s energy.

Speaking to reporters the week before COP, the former head of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and architect of the Paris Agreement Christiana Figueres said the world is “walking in the same direction, if too slowly”.

Figueres said renewables now meet four-fifths of global electricity demand growth, solar is being deployed 15 times faster than predicted a decade ago, and one in every five new vehicles sold worldwide is electric.

The situation poses trouble for Australia, with its economy still reliant on fossil fuel exports – despite Treasury modelling projecting the value of that coal and gas trade almost halving over the next five years. Australia’s commitment to the gas industry was further entrenched this year by the approvals of major projects in the north of the country.

For years the Australian government has insisted its gas exports could act as a “bridging fuel” for South-East Asian countries looking to move away from coal, but a report prepared by consulting firm Deloitte for the Western Australian government contradicted that characterisation.

The report – which was delivered last December and not released despite multiple freedom of information requests – suggested that while China, India and others would provide new markets for Australian gas, they were already moving to install renewables at scale and these exports might actually delay decarbonisation.

“There are substantial risks that natural gas could crowd out investments in renewable technologies or delay the broader adoption of zero-emission energy systems,” it warned. “These risks must be carefully managed to ensure natural gas serves as a true bridge fuel rather than a long-term dependency that hinders progress toward decarbonisation goals.”

These challenges underscore Australia’s own lack of engagement with the process, even as this country has campaigned hard to host COP31, in a joint effort with Pacific nations.

Speaking at a press conference in the lead-up to the negotiations, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he is “prepared to travel” to Belém for a meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the president of rival bidder Türkiye. Erdoğan has not confirmed his attendance.

Australia is represented at COP by Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Assistant Minister for Climate Change and Energy Josh Wilson. South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas, who declared his readiness to advance Adelaide’s case to host, said he had bought a refundable ticket to Brazil, but “it’s a long way to go to not make a difference”.

If neither Türkiye nor Australia reaches a deal to secure the event by the time COP30 ends, next year’s conference will default to the German city of Bonn.

Both Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong, who has previously served as climate minister, and Jan Adams, the current head of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, are understood to be wary of hosting COP31. Both were involved with the Copenhagen summit in 2009 – which failed to secure any commitments to emissions reduction – and are aware of the intense global scrutiny the conference brings to host countries. Meanwhile, a lukewarm response from the prime minister has raised concerns about a lack of momentum.

The COP bid, however, has been integral to Australia’s re-engagement with its Pacific neighbours in recent years, amid broader tensions with China. This dynamic has only sharpened following an advisory opinion delivered by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in July that found countries could be held liable for continuing to approve fossil fuel expansion.

Though wealthy countries, including Australia, have approached this year’s COP with a sense of business as usual, Vanuatu’s climate change minister, Ralph Regenvanu, has insisted the ICJ opinion makes this impossible.

Speaking to reporters ahead of COP, Regenvanu called out Australia explicitly, noting that Australia allowed Türkiye to exclude representatives from Pacific countries from talks about hosting COP31. He said approvals for new fossil fuel extraction run directly counter to the advisory opinion, which Vanuatu is pushing for the UN General Assembly to adopt.

“Unfortunately, we have low expectations of COP again,” he said. “And we are expecting some of that frustration … will add to the support for our resolution at the UN GA.”

This article was first published in the print edition of The Saturday Paper on
November 15, 2025 as “Bad COP, worse COP”.

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