After three successive days of profit, Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s semi-finals at the Nitto ATP Finals. Can another Alcaraz v Sinner final be prevented?

Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals

1.5pts under 20.5 games in Jannik Sinner v Alex de Minaur at 4/5 (BoyleSports)

1pt under 22.5 games in Carlos Alcaraz v Felix Auger-Aliassime at 10/11 (BoyleSports)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Jannik Sinner v Alex de Minaur (1330 GMT)

I wrote at the start of this tournament about how Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have been well ahead of the rest of the ATP Tour this season and Saturday provides the pair with a good chance to underline that.

Both are heavily odds-on to win their matches and thus set up another final meeting – it would be their sixth of 2025.

The question here is how does De Minaur win this? He’s 9/1 for a reason. Or rather several.

One of them is the head-to-head record which stands at 12-0 in Sinner’s favour. The Italian has won 24 of the last 25 sets they’ve played and dropped only two in total. He’s also got plenty of experience of playing De Minaur indoors – seven of those matches have been played under a roof.

The Australian will try to utilise his big strength – his speed and defensive abilities – but it’s hard to see that being enough.

Sinner hits the ball harder off the ground, while his serve is in majestic working order right now. He’s yet to be broken this week and has held serve throughout 11 of his last 16 matches. He’s not faced a break point in seven of those.

De Minaur did impress against Taylor Fritz in his final group match, showing some of the aggression he’s added to his game, but it should be remembered he lost his first two here in Turin and is the first player to qualify for the semis after doing so since David Nalbandian in 2006.

In short, he’s rather fortunate to still be here and it’s hard to see him going any further.

With a straight-sets Sinner win just 1/3, the best value here looks to be to back under 20.5 games at 4/5 with BoyleSports.

That’s been the outcome in four of their last five meetings on indoor hard and I just expect Sinner to be way too good.

Carlos Alcaraz v Felix Auger-Aliassime (1930 GMT)

My pre-tournament assessment that Auger-Aliassime could have a say in the Bjorn Borg Group proved spot on.

He’s been in impressive form of late but will it be enough against a player who appears to have found his best level when needed?

Alcaraz suffered an early defeat in Paris ahead of this event but he’s improved as this tournament has worn on, fending off Taylor Fritz in a high-quality match before dismantling Lorenzo Musetti on Thursday.

Auger-Aliassime was well below his best on Friday night when beating a pretty awful Alex Zverev and I’d suggest he’ll need to play much better to stand a chance here.

He’s clearly capable of doing so with his serve and forehand combination a potential route to victory.

However, history shows he’s struggled to deal with Alcaraz in recent times.

Don’t be fooled by the overall 4-3 record (in the Spaniard’s favour). FAA’s last win came in 2022 with Alcaraz having won all four since in straight sets.

There have been some really one-sided scorelines in those four Alcaraz victories and he’s broken serve 18 times to two across those matches.

OK, some came on his favoured clay and the quicker conditions of Turin will assist the server a bit more but it’s still an impressive record which shows how much better FAA is going to need to be.

Sadly, for the Canadian, he’s also got a quick turnaround to deal with – he’s had a rest day between all his matches so far, but not this time.

He didn’t create a break point against Jannik Sinner in the group stages and I’m not sure he’s going to enjoy a lot more success here.

My betting approach is similar to the first semi-final – go under the total games line which is set at 22.5.

For those seeking something bigger, maybe under 8.5 games in the first set – a 9/2 shot with Sky Bet – is for you. That’s occurred in four of the last seven sets these two have contested.

Preview posted 0820 GMT on 15/11/2025Safer gambling

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