Christian Watson’s chances at a breakout game against Minnesota
After his two touchdown game against the Giants last week, you may have snatched up Christian Watson in your fantasy league … only to find he has a “red matchup” in the Vikings this week and hesitate. Here’s the good news: while Minnesota has been generally good against wide receivers, they have a glaring weakness against the deep ball. They’re NFL Pro’s 31st-ranked defense on deep passes, allowing a 143.8 passer rating that’s easily the highest in the league, more than 12 points higher than the Commanders (next-highest). Opponents have completed 60% of deep attempts against Minnesota (highest in the league), with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Jameson Williams all had 35+ yards and at least one TD on deep throws against this defense, with both Eagles topping 100 such yards in their Week 7 meeting.
Meanwhile, Watson has seen 20+ air yards on a whopping 47.1% of his targets, the second-highest rate in the league by any receiver with 15+ total targets (Tyquan Thornton is number one). With his consistent weekly target count since getting healthy in Week 8, that statistically translates to two deep targets a game, and against Minnesota at least one of those should hit for a big play. If that big play goes for a 30- or 40-yard touchdown, Watson would instantly validate anyone bold enough to start him. If he can put together a few more plays in an offense looking for a spark (and possibly missing Josh Jacobs), Watson could be a sneaky WR2 with upside this weekend.
Fantasy Fallout: You’re not forcing Watson into lineups this week, but if you have a need in a WR3 or flex spot, I believe you can play him with unusual confidence in this matchup. He’s also a good DFS option in tournaments where you’re looking for upside.