Following the announcement of Scott Robertson’s All Blacks team to face Wales, here are our winners and losers from his selection.
The head coach has made 12 changes to his starting line-up, and one positional change, from the side which was defeated by England last week, as New Zealand closes out the 2025 international season at the home of Welsh Rugby.
Only three times in the history of the 37 meetings between these two nations have the All Blacks failed to emerge victorious, and Robertson will be hoping that record remains intact.
Without further ado, here are our winners and losers.
Winners
Rieko Ioane
For the first time this November, Rieko Ioane will turn out for the All Blacks. It’s been a challenging year for the 87-Test cap veteran who was shunted to the wing against the French, losing his number 13 jersey – his preferred position – and was later released to Auckland to play a round of NPC rugby.
This weekend will be the seventh time that Ioane will feature for the All Blacks in 2025, which is hardly a poor tally, but it pales in comparison to 2024, when he played 12 times.
The largely changed team to face a lowly Wales team lacking confidence suggests that Robertson is giving fringe players in the squad the opportunity to impress ahead of next year, and whilst Ioane has been a regular starter for much of his career, he is squarely in that category now.
He will hope that his stint at Leinster results in an uptick of form and takes his game to another level, like it did for Jordie Barrett. Otherwise, we might see a further decline and fewer minutes in 2026.
Anton Lienert-Brown
Anton Lienert-Brown fits into a similar category as Ioane, earning just his fourth appearance of the year and second start.
Once a regular starter for the side, the Chiefs star has fallen down the pecking order with his clubmate Quinn Tupaea rocketing back into the selection frame.
His experience and ability to dovetail between inside and outside centre seamlessly make him a real asset in the squad, but he has hardly set the world alight when given the opportunity in black – not only this year but in recent seasons.
Last chance saloon? Maybe not just yet, but for ALB and Ioane, that’s fast approaching. Robertson hasn’t been a ruthless selector during his tenure so far, but with a new attack coach coming in next year, that may well change.
Ruben Love
Finally, Robertson has shown Ruben a bit of love. The Hurricanes star is one of the most talented rising stars in New Zealand rugby, but has hardly got a look at the matchday squads.
Sure, injuries have curtailed him at points in his career, but it is bizarre to see such a talented Kiwi only boast four Test caps over his two-year involvement with the All Blacks. In stark contrast, Ethan Hooker only debuted in July for the Springboks but could win his eighth Test cap this weekend.
While it’s always incredibly difficult to break into the All Blacks back-three and fly-half stocks, it’s not like the players that have been playing in those roles have been producing performances that make them undroppable.
Will Jordan is perhaps the only exception to that, but Robertson could have absolutely done what he has this weekend previously by shifting the truly world-class Crusader to the wing and give Love a fair shot at full-back.
Christian Lio-Willie
Back in from the cold. Christian Lio-Willie played the house down in the latter stages of the Super Rugby Pacific season, earned a call-up to the All Blacks squad and started the first two Tests of the year and came off the bench in the third.
Then, the return to fitness of Simon Parker meant that he was unceremoniously dropped from the squad.
The injuries to Luke Jacobson and Peter Lakai, paired with the heavy rotation, gives him one final crack at impressing in 2025, that’s IF he comes off the bench.
Wales
It’s very, very unlikely considering the run of results Wales have endured over the last 24 months, but Steve Tandy and his charges will be slightly more confident of claiming an upset of epic proportions than they would have been yesterday.
There will be an element of rustiness and lack of cohesion in this All Blacks team, with many of the players having not played since the Rugby Championship.
Since being dumped out of the 2023 Rugby World Cup by Argentina, Wales have only managed to beat Japan and by small margins. However, they could issue a stunning statement that they are back by knocking over the All Blacks for the first time at the Principality Stadium.
It cannot be understated just how unlikely that is, given their recent performances and inexperience in the squad, but there is still a chance.
The absence of stars like Ardie Savea, Codie Taylor, Ethan de Groot, Lakai, Jordie Barrett and others significantly weaken the All Blacks and this is by no means a weak team but one that COULD be knocked over.
Sir John Kirwan: Scott Robertson’s All Blacks are just not good enough and it’s really upsetting me
Losers
Injuries
Injuries have certainly played a role in Robertson’s selection too, with Cam Rogiard and Beauden Barrett both dropping out of the matchday squad. The latter produced one of his worst performances in the All Blacks jersey in a very, very long time last week, with Robertson explaining that he was carrying an injury.
Meanwhile, Roigard also suffered a setback during the match. It’s hardly a controversial take that the All Blacks have been their best when the scrum-half has been on the pitch, and that was plainly obvious with the momentum swing once he departed the Twickenham turf.
Joining the duo in having their seasons cut short by a match is the excellent Lakai, as well as prop Tevita Mafileo.
Luke Jacobson
After a strong Super Rugby season, Jacobson was primed to continue that form into the black jersey, but not once did he get the chance to do so as he was a nigh-on permanent inclusion on the ‘unavailable for selection’ list on the All Blacks team releases.
Robertson and his staff clearly rate the versatile back-rower, keeping him in the mix throughout the year, but the luckless loosie just suffered setback after setback.
The likes of Lakai, Wallace Sititi, Parker, Du’Plessis Kirifi and Lio-Willie have impressed in his absence, and hopefully Jacobson will have more luck fitness-wise next year.
Quinn Tupaea
The wholesale nature of the changes from Robertson makes it rather difficult to pick out clear losers, but Tupaea will feel rather hard done by, as he would have loved to produce another statement performance.
The centre has been nothing short of fantastic for the All Blacks this year and looks to have cemented a place in the squad for 2026. However, when Jordie Barrett returns from injury, he is bound to slot right back into the number 12 jumper and could be partnered with Billy Proctor, who he will have a full Super Rugby season with, or even Leicester Fainga’anuku, who has been outstanding since his return.
Playing against Wales could have given him one final shot at emphasising his worth, but it was not to be.
Scott Robertson
One has wonder how much the defeat to Steve Borthwick’s men played in Robertson’s thinking around selection. Would so many changes have occurred if they had won last week? Possibly not.
They had the shot at a historic Grand Slam, and that is no dead in the water, and such an opportunity will be incredibly rare in the years to come, with the Nations Championship coming into play.
There is an element of ‘Well, we’ve fallen short of our goal, let’s give everyone a run’ with this selection, particularly because drastic changes of this nature have been few and far between during Robertson’s tenure.
It’s a bit of a gamble from the head coach, who risks another historic defeat but one more akin to betting on black at the roulette table than on zero.