This weekend (Sat., Nov. 22, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena in Al Rayyan, Qatar for UFC Qatar. The promotion’s first-ever visit to Qatar is stacked with talent! Finally, Arman Tsarukyan is back in action for the first time since April 2024, and Dan Hooker can absolutely be trusted to take the fight to the ace wrestler. In the co-main event, yet another potential Welterweight title eliminator will go down between Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Garry, and the rest of the card promises skilled collisions of quality combatants.
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the co-main event:
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – JUNE 14: (L-R) Alonzo Menifield punches Oumar Sy of France in a light heavyweight bout during the UFC Fight Night event at State Farm Arena on June 14, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC)
Lightweight: Volkan Oezdemir (-250) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+190)
Best Win for Oezdemir? Johnny Walker For Menifield? Dustin Jacoby
Current Streak: Oezdemir lost his last bout, whereas Menifield has won two in a row
X-Factor: Both men are serious knockout threats
How these two match up: This bout ends quickly or is a grueling wrestling match — there’s no inbetween.
You can trust that “No Time” will not be the man shooting. Oezdemir is a kickboxer first and foremost, though his defensive wrestling has come a long way over the years. He has clubbing power, particularly in close range exchanges, but he’ll also kick the legs off a stationary opponents. Menifield, conversely, is more of a brawler. He swings wildly and has ran straight into counter shots as a result, but Menifield also has more than once switched it up and ground out a wrestling match to pick up a close decision.
Wrestling is probably his best bet here, because Oezdemir historically is quite durable, hits very hard himself, and is the sharper technical striker. Menifield’s best chance is to make this a physical and exhausting wrestling match, which will leave both men incapable of knocking the other out. He’s a big 205-pounder with underrated conditioning, so it is possible … if not likely.
Menifield’s defense is too porous to safely take on Oezdemir. Likely, he’ll get some clinch time but get smashed from close quarters or clipped as he tries to press forward another time. Generally, Oezdemir has only lost to true Top 10 talent, and Menifield isn’t really that guy.
Prediction: Oezdemir via knockout
BAKU, AZERBAIJAN – JUNE 20: Myktybek Orolbai of Kyrgyzstan poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night ceremonial weigh-ins at Baku Crystal Hall on June 20, 2025 in Baku, Azerbaijan. (Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC)
Welterweight: Myktybek Orolbai (+186) vs. Jack Hermansson (-245)
Best Win for Orolbai? Uros Medic For Hermansson? Ronaldo Souza
Current Streak: Orolbai won his last bout, while Hermansson lost his most recent fight
X-Factor: Both men are changing weight classes in opposite directions
How these two match up: This is one of the most bizarre matchups in recent memory.
At 27 years of age, Orolbai should still be considered a bluechip prospect after four UFC fights. He’s a mauling wrestler with nasty top control, but the Kyrgyz athlete can also put together combinations of dangerous power punches. Hermansson, conversely, is a tricky distance striker with a violent top game of his own. The longtime Middleweight contender will be making his first-ever appearance at 170 pounds after a 15-year professional career at the age of 37 — which doesn’t necessarily feel like the greatest decision in the world.
I am reminded of when Thiago Alves unsuccessfully dropped to Lightweight for an ugly one-off performance against Jim Miller. This matchup also brings up memories of Dan Hooker’s ill-fated return to Featherweight, which promptly saw him flattened by Arnold Allen. In short, this drop in weight isn’t going to go well for Hermansson, particularly since he was brutally knocked out less than six months ago by “Robocop.” He’s going to drain himself severely and look very slow on the feet in comparison to the former Lightweight, who is going to either exhaust Hermansson’s emptied gas tank with takedowns or just find his chin inside a couple minutes.
Forget the style matchup here: Hermansson has no business at Welterweight, and Orolbai will teach him why.
Prediction: Orolbai via knockout
SHANGHAI, CHINA – AUGUST 23: (R-L) Waldo Cortes-Acosta of the Dominican Republic punches Sergei Pavlovich of Russia in a heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Shanghai Indoor Stadium on August 23, 2025 in Shanghai, China. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Heavyweight: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Shamil Gaziev
Best Win for Cortes-Acosta? Serghei Spivac For Gaziev? Martin Buday
Current Streak: Cortes-Acosta just won his last bout earlier this month, while Gaziev has won two in a row
X-Factor: Cortes-Acosta accepted the fight yesterday!
How these two match up: Holy crap, I just learned that Gaziev is currently ranked No. 11 in the world at Heavyweight. Truly, that’s a dire indictment of the division as a whole.
It took a little while, but I’m warming on Cortes-Acosta. He’s been very active this year against a tough class of competition, and he’s won more often than not. He’s not always the most entertaining fighter, but “Salsa Boy” is a competent boxer with better cardio than most. Comparatively, Gaziev feels like the harder hitter. He’s a decent boxer himself, capable of firing hard shots on the counter or exploding from the front foot.
I’ll confess that I don’t think much of Gaziev generally. He fell apart so badly against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and the rest of his UFC competition has come opposite men who don’t really deserve to be on the roster. He’s shown some good hand speed and power, but that’s pretty much the bare minimum required to be even a half-decent Heavyweight.
Cortes-Acosta, conversely, operates at a higher pace, has a great jab, and can take a shot like nobody’s business. Provided he hasn’t gotten tremendously fat since his November 1 victory over Ante Delija, he should be able to wear down and outwork Gaziev. The short-notice nature of the booking makes it a taller task, but even so, I’m siding with “Salsa Boy” to pick up his fourth win of 2025.
Prediction: Cortes-Acosta via decision
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JUNE 15: Alex Perez prepares to face Tatsuro Taira of Japan in a flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on June 15, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images) Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Flyweight: Alex Perez (-230) vs. Asu Almabayev (+176)
Best Win for Perez? Jussier Formiga For Almabayev? Matheus Nicolau
Current Streak: Perez lost his last bout, while Almabayev returned to the win column
X-Factor: Perez is cursed
How these two match up: This should be an excellent Flyweight scrap … if it’s not cancelled in the final 48 hours.
Perez has a truly abysmal history of last-second injuries and ailments, surely affected by his hefty weight cut. If he can show up to the cage in top form — and that’s a massive if given how rarely it happens — the former Flyweight title contender is a collegiate wrestler with genuine knockout power and slick submission skills. He’s lost four of his last five, sure, but those defeats break down to a pair of champions and arguably the two best young prospects in the weight class.
He’s not losing to scrubs.
Almabayev is still a relatively new face at 125-pounds. He’s a bit small for the division, but “Zulfikar” makes up for that flaw with elite wrestling and an endless gas tank. He’s high-activity on the feet as well, though he doesn’t carry a ton of pop in his punches.
This is an annoying fight to predict in that Perez really should win if we compare skill sets. He’s the better and more impactful striker, and he’s a good enough wrestler to keep this thing upright. He’s generally fought a higher level of competition — win or lose — and should still be in his prime at 33 years of age.
Unfortunately, momentum and activity are just as valuable as technical skills. Perez only has one victory in the last five years and hasn’t fought since June 2024, a loss which produced a knee injury. Conversely, this will be Almabayev’s sixth fight in the last two years, so his timing and gas tank are much more likely to be on point. Perez has the potential to make an upset happen, but the most likely outcome here is a wrestling match that increasingly favors the Kazakh talent.
Prediction: Almabayev via decision
‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2025: 56-34