It all goes down this weekend (Sat., Nov. 22, 2025) inside ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. In the main event, a heated Lightweight showdown between No. 1-seeded division contender, Arman Tsarukyan, and long-time fan favorite, Dan Hooker, tops the ESPN+-streamed card.

Regardless, we have a weekly series here at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in Doha when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so tell us your most confident UFC Qatar betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Qatar odds here).

Time to keep on, keeping on below:

On UFC Qatar’s “Prelims” undercard, the biggest betting favorite of the night steps into the cage when UFC Light Heavyweight rookie, AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev, meets struggling Brazilian, Raffael Cerqueira.

This week, I’m locking in Yakhyaev to Win by Knockout at -175.

Yakhyaev is a massive -1650 favorite for a reason. The matchmaking here screams “showcase fight,” and all signs point to a classic squash match. The 24-year-old comes in with an 86 percent career finish rate, split evenly between three knockouts and three submissions, and is coming off a first round knockout on Contender Series to earn a UFC contract (watch highlights).

“Hunter” is aggressive, explosive and once he smells blood, he unloads with the kind of pressure that overwhelms lower-tier opposition. When you combine that with his speed advantage, top control and ability to dictate pace instantly, he becomes extremely hard to survive against … especially for someone who hasn’t yet shown they belong at this level.

Cerqueira, unfortunately, has been awful inside the Octagon. He’s winless (0-3) in UFC, with two of the losses coming via first round knockout (watch here). He’s never been submitted, which is notable, but his defensive awareness and reaction time simply haven’t been UFC caliber. Against a finisher like Yakhyaev — who can blitz with combinations or explode from top position — Cerqueira is going to be forced into chaotic situations early, and he’s repeatedly shown that those are the moments where he falls apart.

With Yakhyaev’s power and efficiency, the knockout prop is the strongest angle with the best price attached, especially with him being a mega favorite.

If there’s one curveball, it’s that Yakhyaev also owns three submission victories, and Cerqueira’s only silver lining is that he’s never been tapped. If Yakhyaev decides to dominate on the mat and hunt for a quick choke instead of unleashing ground-and-pound, there’s a chance he becomes the first man to submit the Brazilian, which would obviously bust the KO ticket.

Still, given Cerqueira’s track record and Yakhyaev’s explosive striking, the knockout angle at -175 remains one of the safest plays on UFC Qatar.