New Zealand rugby supporters are a hard lot to please. They are like heavy metal groupies at a rock concert, standing with folded arms, ready to clap only when strictly necessary. Fawning fans they are emphatically not.
Nobody in New Zealand is congratulating Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson after his first two seasons in charge of the All Blacks came to an end at the Principality Stadium on Saturday. His team had just won handsomely against Wales but there was only a muted smattering of applause to be heard. Razor’s second season finished with 10 wins out of 13 and his overall record stands at 20 wins from 27 attempts.
A 74% return may be respectable for New Zealand and the aspirational pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for most top-tier rugby nations, but it remains stubbornly 10-15% below the astonishing win rate of the three wise men, Graham Henry, Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith. From most New Zealanders, the arms remain folded, the bravos are muffled and there are no stars in the eyes. It is not enough.
The pattern of the two most significant defeats, to South Africa in Wellington in September, and to England at Twickenham two months later, was disturbingly similar. Both sides ultimately cracked the All Blacks in the aerial battle and at scrum time, and they ran away with the game in the second half.
It is not a formula which can be copied and pasted by any old team, but it works for those at the very top end of the game. The All Blacks are not bulletproof and they are not invulnerable. There is a clear path to victory against them.
All Blacks leadership is not so much a one-man affair as a partnership between coach and captain, and Robertson’s chosen skipper is his old mucker at the Crusaders, Scott Barrett. While coaches have come and gone, the captaincy has remained in the hands of Robertson’s mate in Christchurch whenever he has been available.
With the first instalment of ‘The Greatest Rivalry’ due in 2026, the composition of the tight forwards in general, and Barrett’s spot in the second row, will come under more intense scrutiny than ever before. The very thought of that tour of South Africa raises the spectres of the Cake Tin, and it left New Zealand forwards coach Jase Ryan momentarily speechless and scrambling for a response in conversation with The Breakdown’s Taylah Johnson.
“We came over here to win a Grand Slam [beating all four of Ireland, Scotland England and Wales] but that never happened,” he said. “The England Test [which the All Blacks lost 33-19] will hurt for a while – and through the summer.
“We can’t look past our inconsistencies and we have to be really honest about it. I know I have made a few mistakes this season and I’ll have to learn from them pretty quick.
“But it’s 19 new All Blacks in two years and we’ve got nearly 200 caps in the forward pack sitting at home, so I am proud of the young fellas we have brought through in the forwards and we will be better for it. But 2026? That Greatest Rivalry’s going to be… Whoomph!”
When pushed by Johnson, who asked “Is it bad we don’t know who our top 23 are, or is it good we are blooding new players?”, Ryan could not be anything other than candid in his response: “I think it’s a mix of both.”
‘We don’t know who are top 23 are’. The situation in the middle row of the scrum is symptomatic. With Tupou Vaa’i and Patrick Tuipulotu putting their feet up at home, the second row on tour was filled by a mix of newly-crowned World Rugby breakthrough player of the year Fabian Holland, 6ft 8ins Chief Josh Lord and ‘Scooter’ the skipper.
The problem for Robertson is 6ft 9ins, 124kg Holland is competing directly for Barrett’s spot. As time goes by, he will become more ‘Guzzler’ than ‘Gandalf’. The shape of his game will mirror Brodie Retallick more than closely than Sam Whitelock, as a classically mobile Kiwi enforcer. As Stephen Donald observed on The Breakdown: “I remember at the start of the year someone mentioned him as a comparison to Brodie and I almost fell off my chair! How can you compare someone who hasn’t played for the All Blacks to the greatest [second row] to have done it?
“He’s not there yet, but there are some striking similarities – in his core work, in his open play. You talk about dominant tackles, out of five in a game, he probably equates to three and a half of them. In the last month on tour, he has been physically big on D.”
At the Rugby Championship, Barrett and Holland were top of the pops for dominant tackles among New Zealand forwards with four apiece, and that stat as well as any illustrates how the pair will be running neck and neck entering the final furlong of New Zealand’s World Cup preparation over the next season and a half. Only the captaincy may be keeping Scooter a nose ahead, and that could just be ripe for a change too.
The number five ‘Whitelock’ spot should be managed efficiently by a combination of either Vaa’i and Lord by 2027, while Tuipulotu has already shown his aptitude as a specialist bench lock, so it is not inconceivable 32-year-old Barrett could find himself frozen out completely by the time the World Cup spins around.
A table of key performance stats culled from the November tour highlights some interesting areas of comparison. The following figures all represent production averaged over an 80-minute game.
Holland can justifiably claim to be the most reliable source of lineout possession anywhere in the current international game. He averaged eight takes per game on tour, and nine at the Rugby Championship, roughly twice as many as any other starting second row in the tournament. In terms of pure lineout production, he is literally head and shoulders above everyone else.
Vaa’i and Lord can play the role of the slightly looser, ball-handling second row, and Vaa’i posted similar figures on the carry to Lord in TRC with five carries for 27m. Lord was one of the hidden success stories of the November tour, averaging five tackles more per game than either of the other locks while making 100% of the stops he attempted. Against Scotland he also showcased his natural talents as a footballer.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 24, 2025
That kind of intuitive offloading ability and nose for a gap are instincts that cannot be bought, or faked. That snapshot alone hints that Lord could yet become New Zealand’s answer to RG Snyman.
Where does Barrett fit into the overall picture? It is not to be found in his lineout work or scrummaging prowess, or in his carrying ability. The understated point of difference is in that fifth column, it lies in his ability to get to places in cleanout support other tight forwards can only watch with a measure of envy.
Against Wales, he was usually first forward up in support on kick-chase, and the first one back in defence when danger threatened.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 24, 2025
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 24, 2025
In both cases it is Scooter’s support work at the breakdown which confirms the turnover; first to latch on to the aerial reclaim by Will Jordan and first to nail Pasilio Tosi into the breakdown and ensure the turnover penalty in the second.
Barrett’s penchant for double involvements was a keystone of the All Blacks’ attacking breakdown work in Cardiff. The All Blacks won 137 rucks and lost none to would-be-Welsh pilferers on the deck.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 24, 2025
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 24, 2025
In the first clip Barrett cleans out both Welsh locks in the space of 15 seconds on separate plays to save the turnover, in the second he is the first tight forward around the corner to the second phase of attack from lineout, playing in the twilight zone between a loose and a tight forward, and ensuring there is that ‘pearl of great price’ in the modern game – continuity.
The captain’s work in the grey areas helped Tamati Williams to a try as the first half drew to a close.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 24, 2025
The power of Williams on the short-range carry is undeniable, and it needs to be starting to make its mark. But who is the bloke up in support, peeling gargantuan 140kg Welshman Rhys Carre away from the tackle attempt on Tamaiti? That’s right, it is Scooter the Skipper.
Do Razor Robertson and his assistants really know the make-up of their top 23-man matchday squad? Right now, probably not. Forty-nine players have been tried in 2025, with varying degrees of success. There will be debates ahead of the ‘Greatest Rivalry’ tour about the bench split and the best fit for starting and finishing profiles.
With the Springbok spectre looming, there will discussions around the area of Ryan’s speciality in the tight forwards. There is a distinct possibility the captain may lose his place in the 23 entirely. Holland is fast becoming an irresistible force at four in the line, while Vaa’i and Lord will be disputing five and Tuipulotu looks a natural impact operator from the bench. Most Kiwi fans will be asking the same question: where now for Scott Barrett?