The sound of footsteps is so loud it’s almost deafening.
McLaren’s sensational double DNF in Las Vegas has brought Max Verstappen into title range. No longer a contender purely by mathematics, the form man of Formula 1 has a chance to really rattle the cage of the drives championship fight in the hope the title falls his way in Abu Dhabi.
Oscar Piastri, having looked out for the count before the disqualification, also has one last chance to revive his title hopes.
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Norris, having looked set for a Qatar cruise to the championship, must now defend his lead to claim the crown.
The margin has shrunk to just 24 points with two rounds remaining. Verstappen and Piastri are tied for second place.
Drivers championship standings
1. Lando Norris: 390 points
2. Oscar Piastri: 366 points (-24 points)
3. Max Verstappen: 366 points (-24 points)
Of course on the one hand he would benefit from Piastri and Verstappen taking points of each other, blunting their attacks.
On the other, though, is that he now has twice the chance of someone defeating him.
The margin is large but not comfortable, and while Norris is in good form, Verstappen has been the stronger performer in the second half of the campaign, with an unmatched four victories and four other podiums.
There are 58 points still up for grabs in the sprint and two grands prix still to run.
Points system
Grand prix: 1st, 25 pts; 2nd, 18 pts; 3rd, 15 pts; 4th, 12 pts; 5th, 10 pts; 6th, 8 pts; 7th, 6 pts; 8th, 4 pts; 9th, 2 pts; 10th, 1 pt.
Sprint: 1st, 8 pts; 2nd, 7 pts; 3rd, 6 pts; 4th, 5 pts; 5th, 4 pts; 6th, 3 pts; 7th, 2 pts; 8th, 1 pt.
It’s quite the set-up ahead of a potentially title-deciding weekend in Qatar.
PIT TALK PODCAST: McLaren left Las Vegas with no points after having both cars disqualified for running illegally low. With winner Max Verstappen now just 24 points behind Lando Norris is the drivers title at risk this weekend in Qatar?
HOW NORRIS CAN WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP
Mercifully the Qatar sprint can no longer decide the title. Norris, if he’s to win it, will not suffer the indignity of having to forgo celebrations to immediately commence a dead-rubber qualifying session.
All three contenders are guaranteed to make it to the grand prix on Sunday night.
Norris can still win the title this weekend, but he must score points on both his rivals rather than simply limit how many points are scored against him.
He can do so in one of two ways.
The first is by stretching his lead to 26 points. With only 25 points remaining after Qatar, that would guarantee him the championship.
The second is by stretching his lead to 25 points while also winning the grand prix.
Grand prix victory is crucial in this scenario because it would assure him success if the scores were tied at the end of the season.
If the scores are tied, the championship goes to whichever driver has won the most grands prix.
Victory count
Lando Norris: 7 wins
Oscar Piastri: 7 wins
Max Verstappen: 6 wins
If Norris wins in Qatar, he will guarantee that he ends the season with more wins than Verstappen, who would be eliminated.
It would also be enough to eliminate Piastri. Even if the Australian were to draw level on points and wins in Abu Dhabi, the countback process would then flow to second-place finishes.
Second-place count
Lando Norris: 8 second-place finishes
Oscar Piastri: 3 second-place finishes
Max Verstappen: 5 second-place finishes
Norris’s quiet accumulation of second-place finishes would put him in an unassailable position if the title went to a second round of countbacks.
The scenarios
What does all this look like in a practical sense?
While the sprint means a variety of permutations are possible, Norris will win the title in Qatar if:
– he finishes seventh or higher in the sprint and wins the grand prix;
– he scores in both the sprint and the grand prix and finishes ahead of both Verstappen and Piastri each time;
– he leads by 26 points or more with any combination of results.
It’s also worth nothing that if he finishes on the sprint and grand prix podium this weekend, third place in Abu Dhabi will be enough to clinch it.
Alternatively, Norris cannot win the title in Qatar if:
– Verstappen or Piastri win the grand prix; or
– he does not score.
McLaren duo disqualified | 03:26
HOW NORRIS CAN LOSE THE CHAMPIONSHIP
While 24 points is a healthy margin, the top-heavy nature of the F1 points schedule means it can be closed without a dramatic result.
Having a sprint round this weekend certainly adds jeopardy.
Consider the point swings at the last two sprint weekends.
Verstappen outscored Piastri by 23 points in Austin.
Norris outscored Piastri by 23 points in Sao Paulo.
Those two events took place in only the last six weeks. It would therefore hardly be unprecedented for Norris to suffer a big swing against him this weekend.
The swings against Piastri in Austin and Sao Paulo were underpinned by the Australian crashing out of both sprints.
The crucial second element was that the same driver then won the sprint and the grand prix — Verstappen in Austin, Norris in Sao Paulo — to maximise the damage.
A 23-point swing against Norris would instantly put the title on the precipice. The Englishman’s lead would be cut to one point without one round remaining. The winner would take it all in Abu Dhabi.
But it’s possible for Norris to be overhauled without an outcome as dramatic as him failing to finish a race.
Scenario 1: Norris succumbs to increasing pressure
Let’s chart out one example. We’ll use Verstappen as his main contender, but of course the mathematics would work equally well for Piastri.
Qatar sprint: Piastri wins, Norris finishes second. Gap: 23 points.
Qatar Grand Prix: Piastri wins, Norris finishes third. Gap: 13 points.
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Piastri wins, Norris finishes fourth. Gap: 0 points; Piastri wins on countback with nine victories.
It’s completely believable that Norris could finish second to Piastri or Verstappen in the sprint, and if we’re assuming all three drivers are roughly equally matched in Qatar, it’s hardly unbelievable that he would finish behind both in the grand prix.
If Norris is to finish fourth in Abu Dhabi — assuming Piastri and Verstappen are both in the mix at the front — we’d have to have a second team involved in the battle.
There have been eight three-team podiums this season, including at five of the last six grands prix — although most of them have been down to underperformance from one or both McLaren drivers or a technical problem.
That said, Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s improving form could see the second Mercedes more regularly in the mix. The Italian rookie is on a two-race podium streak and held back Piastri in Las Vegas.
Ferrari is unlikely to be helpful beyond potential nuisance value during the races themselves given the team’s lacklustre tally of seven podiums for the season so far.
Scenario 2: Verstappen capitalises on McLaren’s no-team-order stance
The quiet risk for Norris is that Piastri gets in the way of him taking the fight to Verstappen.
We could also call this the 2007 scenario, after Kimi Räikkönen’s come-from-behind title win after McLaren drivers Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso cost each other too many points battling one another.
Qatar sprint: Verstappen wins, Piastri finishes second, Norris finishes fifth. Gap: 20 points.
Qatar Grand Prix: Verstappen wins, Piastri finishes second, Norris finishes third. Gap: 10 points.
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Verstappen wins, Piastri finishes second, Norris finishes third. Gap: 0 points; Verstappen wins on countback with eight victories.
This scenario would rely on Norris finishing outside the top four in the sprint in Qatar — possible but improbable.
But with Piastri’s underlying pace in the last two rounds hinting at a return to form, and with the Australian now racing with nothing to lose while Norris can only lose, nothing can be discounted.
Oscar on start: “Barged out of the way” | 01:56
FORM GUIDE
The beauty of this title run-in is that the last two circuits, based on everything we’ve learnt in the final part of the season, should see an even contest between McLaren and Red Bull Racing.
Qatar Grand Prix
On paper the Lusail International Circuit is an ideal layout for McLaren’s cars, which love long-duration high-speed corners.
It’s been competitive here since the track returned to the calendar in 2023 and has won the last two sprints, although it’s yet to win a grand prix.
That’s because Verstappen is the form driver here. He’s the only multiple grand prix winner in Lusail, and Red Bull Racing proved last year that it could get its car into a sweet spot that could control the race.
2024 sprint qualifying: Norris (1) ahead of Piastri (3) and Verstappen (6)
2024 sprint race: Piastri (1) ahead of Norris (2) and Verstappen (8)
The sprint was a close battle with George Russell, whose Mercedes was unexpectedly strong out of the blocks in Lusail. Norris led from pole but handed victory to Piastri to pay him back for doing the same in Sao Paulo earlier in the year.
2024 qualifying: Verstappen (1) ahead of Norris (3) and Piastri (4)
2024 race: Verstappen (1) ahead of Piastri (3) and Norris (10)
Red Bull Racing made swingeing set-up changes after the sprint and hit the jackpot. Norris had been running a competitive second before copping a big penalty for ignoring yellow flags that dropped him to the lower reaches of the points.
What to expect in 2025
Even if this should be a McLaren circuit on paper, there are some interesting question marks for the team to answer.
The first is the fallout from Las Vegas. Reports suggest McLaren has been flirting with the limit of legality with plank wear in recent races as it seeks to shut Verstappen out of the title hunt. Will it have to be more conservative this weekend to ensure it makes it through, and what will that cost in performance?
The second is that Pirelli has mandated a maximum of 25 laps per tyre to avoid the tyre failures of last season at this high-energy circuit.
It will guarantee every driver makes at least two stops. That in turn will mean the pace of the race will be higher than usual.
That feeds back into the plank problem. A race run at a faster pace, at faster speeds, will see the plank take more of a beating — or require more conservatism.
Further, given one of McLaren’s key strengths is tyre management, mandating two stops could eliminate this as a differentiator given everyone will run pretty much the same strategy.
It’s a big chance for Red Bull Racing, but it’s also a big test. At the last sprint, in Brazil, the team failed to find a workable set-up until it pulled Verstappen off the grid after he qualified a dismal 16th. He ended up with ferocious race pace that would have won him the race had he qualified in position.
It was a similar story in Qatar last year, though the team struck a workable configuration before qualifying rater than after the fact.
Verstappen cannot afford another repeat of either. If the Red Bull Racing car isn’t quick immediately, there’ll be simply too much to do to recover that lost ground.
Analysing pivotal Piastri lap 1 hit | 04:52
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
McLaren has long been optimistic about Yas Marina as a favourable circuit. The set-up compromise required to balance the fast bends of the first sector, the long straights of the second sector and the slow corners of the final sector is something the MCL39 is very good at.
But it’s also fair to say the RB21 has been competitive at almost every circuit since its upgrade at the Italian Grand Prix. Mexico City was an outlier due to its high-altitude setting, while Sao Paulo was more about set-up misdirection than a fundamental mismatch.
Red Bull Racing is unlikely to fear this circuit.
It’s the most successful team here, with seven victories. Verstappen claimed four of those, putting him behind only Hamilton with his five Yas Marina victories.
2024 qualifying: Norris (1) ahead of Piastri (2) Verstappen (5)
2024 race: Norris (1) ahead of Verstappen (6) and Piastri (10)
Norris collected McLaren’s first Abu Dhabi win in more than a decade last year with a convincing performance from a dominant pole position, though we’ll never know if teammate Piastri could have challenged him after the Australian was punted out of the race at the first turn by Verstappen.
What to expect in 2025
If the championship is live and close in Abu Dhabi, especially if it’s between Norris and Verstappen, you have to wonder how much this becomes a question of McLaren and its English star holding their nerve.
Verstappen will feel neither nerves nor pressure. He’s been he multiple times before, and already twice this season he’d come to terms with not winning the championship. Everything from here on in is a bonus.
Norris, though, has everything to lose from what is currently a comfortable position on the title table. He’s yet to prove he can handle that pressure. There’s only one way for him to put his steel beyond doubt.
And that’s before considering what Piastri’s role may be here. Would McLaren have the bandwidth to manage both drivers in a three-way showdown? Are there elements of the pit wall that would be at risk of tensing up?
Alternatively, if Piastri were on the outer, how would a potential team order go down on his side of the garage and in the cockpit, especially if he were almost but not quite mathematically out of contention?
This could be a race won as much between the eyes as it is behind the wheel. McLaren may prove its accelerated rise to the top in Formula 1 was enough to prepare it for this moment — or it may be found wanting by the battle-hardened Red Bull Racing and Verstappen.
If the title gets here — and we should hope that it does — we could be in for a hell of an ending.