Prime Tire Newsletter | This is The Athletic’s twice-weekly F1 newsletter. Sign up here to receive Prime Tire directly in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday.
Welcome back to Prime Tire, where we’re all still processing what happened in Vegas over the weekend. I hear that’s normal?
I’m Patrick, and Madeline Coleman will be along shortly. And, oh, look, this championship, that looked dead two weeks ago, is suddenly very alive. Lando Norris leads. Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen are tied 24 points back. We have a lot to talk about. Let’s dive in.
Las Vegas Was … A LotI survived the Las Vegas GP Fan Zone
Well, after a missed connection delayed me a bit, I finally made it to the sensory overload capital of America in time for qualifying and the race.
By now, you know what happened.
Rain made qualifying a sloppy affair that brought out the best of F1’s drivers. And, as is tradition in Las Vegas, things got messier the longer F1 stayed there. Verstappen won, both McLaren drivers were disqualified, and we’ve got ourselves a whole new ballgame (tire game?) for the championship. You can read about that here, but first, let me share with you a tiny glimpse of the fan zone behind the main grandstand.
Before the race, we reported that the Las Vegas GP wanted to go bigger and cheaper in 2025. I can’t speak to how different this fan zone was from previous years, but I think what I saw qualifies as “bigger.”
There was an acrobat spinning inside a literal ring of fire, or someone taking Johnny Cash songs too seriously. One of the two. I saw two performers doing some kind of gravity-defying, roller-skate couples routine. And then there was an LED robot stalking toward me, dancing to Shaggy performing nearby. I can’t forget the other neon robots falling off a giant scaffolding structure into a trampoline and back to the scaffolding again. (This was actually kind of sick.) But … most important … was the Doritos claw machine:
You simply haven’t lived until you’ve watched adult humans bob for bags of Doritos while Shaggy sings “It Wasn’t Me” somewhere behind you.
Here’s what Luke said about it in our blog:
💬 “I wrote about how the Las Vegas Grand Prix has the freedom to be creative and do things a bit differently compared to other F1 races. Well, I’ve just gone and put that to the test — by becoming a human claw that was dropped into a pit of Doritos. Yes, really. It’s in the fan zone behind the main grandstand, and it’s free for anyone to have a go … I managed 58, but the record is 200! The secret is in the legs, apparently. Only in Las Vegas, eh?”
Truly. Here’s our story on how Vegas trying new things is becoming a blueprint for other F1 races.
What Happens Now?The double disqualification resets everything
Since the Dutch GP at the end of August, the entire championship has flipped on its head; Verstappen went on a wild run with 179 points across eight races.
That’s how you erase a 104-point deficit. The other way of doing it is seeing your two title rivals both (!!) get disqualified in the Las Vegas GP.
Norris’ and Piastri’s disqualifications were stunning. It would always take just one moment to reset the F1 championship completely. You’d just expect it to happen on-track. Not a double disqualification in the dead of night over about 0.07 mm of plank wear. Let me explain …
The DSQ explained. Briefly. Very briefly
Every F1 car has a wood-composite plank (aka, skid block) on the underside. It’s there to prevent teams from running their cars too low to the ground, which would give them an aerodynamic advantage. The rules say you can’t wear it down by more than 1 millimeter during a race.
Vegas has an incredibly smooth track surface, meaning teams can run lower ride heights without bottoming out and damaging this plank. Lower ride-heights mean more speed. So naturally, McLaren got aggressive.
Post-race inspection found both McLarens exceeded the wear limit by the width of a human hair. Or a speck of dust. Or my patience during a Phish concert. For the full breakdown of the disqualifications, check out Luke’s immediate reaction and Madeline’s follow-up.
Norris and Verstappen tangled in the Las Vegas GP (Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images)
Five scenarios for the championship
We did something similar a few weeks ago, but we should try again for the sake of, oh, the entire thing being different now. With the Qatar GP this weekend, let’s sift through some scenarios.
Scenario 1: Norris clinches it in Qatar
Probability: Relatively high
This is what we’re probably getting. Norris needs to leave Qatar with at least a 26-point lead (since Abu Dhabi’s season finale a week later offers 25 points maximum). He’s currently up 24. So he needs to outscore both Piastri and Verstappen by at least two points across the entire weekend — Sprint and GP combined.
He can’t win the title in the Sprint on Saturday, but he can in the Qatar Grand Prix the following day.
But it’s tight.
Norris essentially needs to beat Verstappen and Piastri on-track. Given that McLaren has had the fastest car for the second half of the season, this should happen. But Qatar is a Sprint weekend. If Verstappen wins the Sprint (8 points) and Norris takes second in it (seven), Norris loses ground before Sunday even dawns.
The Vegas DQs prove that McLaren is susceptible to operational errors, even this late in the season. Norris needs a clean weekend. A single bad pit stop or another technical oversight pushes this on to the final race of the season.
Scenario 2: It goes to Abu Dhabi
Probability: Quite decent
The one Netflix is hoping for. This requires Qatar to get messy for Norris, but not catastrophically so. Verstappen is tenacious, and the Red Bull RB21 has often performed well in high-speed, limited-braking zones such as Qatar’s sectors 2 and 3.
Maybe Verstappen wins both sessions while Norris struggles to P3/P4 in each, cutting the lead to 10 to 15 points. Or maybe Piastri continues his strong run of form at Qatar (his first sprint win was as a rookie there at Lusail, where he has 49 points and two podiums).
A 15-point gap heading into Yas Marina on Dec. 7 is exactly the kind of stress Norris is trying to avoid.
Scenario 3: Verstappen’s miracle comeback
Probability: Still low
Verstappen is impossibly good at this. But even if he wins both GPs and the Sprint — maximum 58 points, bringing him to 424 — it still doesn’t automatically win him a fifth straight championship. He still needs Norris to fall into disaster, finish outside the top five and score no more than 33 total. Verstappen also needs Piastri to be strong but not dominant, and finish behind him but ahead of Norris.
In other words, the reason Verstappen is so alive right now is because of the Vegas disqualification. Is that skid block issue a fundamental design flaw McLaren can’t fix in one week, leading to a conservative (slow) setup in Qatar? Unlikely. Imagining Verstappen winning every remaining session isn’t hard. It’s his rivals stumbling simultaneously again.
Scenario 4: Piastri’s redemption
Probability: Nah
I’m including this because it’s technically possible, but I am not expecting it. Piastri is tied with Verstappen, but his situation is worse because he shares a garage with the leader.
After the Vegas DQ cost the team a 1-2 finish, McLaren should be in full lockdown mode. If Verstappen is near the front, allowing Piastri to take points off Norris in Qatar could make both McLarens vulnerable. “Papaya Rules” might mean “Lando First” at some point in the next two weeks.
Basically, for this scenario to happen, Piastri would need to win both the Qatar GP and the Abu Dhabi GP (at minimum). Norris would need two DNFs or to score fewer than 10 points total. Verstappen would need to finish second in everything but never overtake Piastri. And McLaren would need to avoid using team orders to favor Norris.
I think it’s safe to call Piastri’s championship challenge a blown opportunity.
Scenario 5: George Russell un-eliminates himself, wins
Probability: High, in the multiverse
Using the time-bending abilities we’ve previously discussed.
My vote: It goes to Abu Dhabi
While Norris has the car to wrap it up, the pressure of a Sprint weekend combined with Verstappen’s new life portends a mixed result in Qatar. Norris plays it safe (or, safer than he did into Turn 1 in Vegas) to protect his lead rather than risk a crash to extend it, meaning he leaves Qatar with a lead of around 18 to 20 points, dragging this circus to Yas Marina for one final showdown.
But I want to hear from you. Vote for which scenario you think is most likely here. We’ll reveal which won on Friday.
Now let’s throw it to Madeline in the paddock.
Inside the Paddock with Madeline ColemanNo radio, no probl… OK, some problems
Alex Albon had to take an old-school approach to his Las Vegas GP.
Williams reported early on in the race that it was experiencing “issues with radio communications to Alex’s car”, and the pit board needed to be used to communicate with Albon. That meant he was flying solo and by instinct other than the one time each lap he’d pass the board that would emerge through the catch fence behind the pit wall.
“If you think about it, no radio, no awareness of blue flags. (All) kinds of things can happen,” he said later. “Even just some little things like safety cars and debris on the track, kind of having to discover it myself.”
Given the Las Vegas GP is run on a street circuit at night, Albon said, “It’s not ideal on a track like Vegas. It’s a bit dangerous.” He did suffer damage to the car, when he collided with Lewis Hamilton on the Strip, and he knew it, just not “if it was safe to (continue to) drive.” He was handed a five-second time penalty for the incident, which he served, but doesn’t understand why. Albon eventually had to retire the car.
A radio-less Alex Albon in Las Vegas! 😳
The Williams driver had to resort to pointing to his damaged front wing after losing all radio communication with his team 🫵 #F1 #LasVegasGP pic.twitter.com/C9jjlD8XZ7
— Formula 1 (@F1) November 24, 2025
Outside the points
🎰 Luke’s deep dive on how F1 finally got Vegas right in year three is worth your time. Spoiler: It stopped trying so hard.
🏆 Madeline wrote about the process of designing the Vegas GP trophy, which involved blowtorches! The result is genuinely cool.
📫 Love Prime Tire? Check out The Athletic’s other newsletters.