1h agoTue 29 Jul 2025 at 9:59pmMarket snapshotASX futures: -0.1% to 8,657 pointsASX 200 (Tuesday close): +0.1% to 8,704 pointsAustralian dollar: -0.2% to 65.1 US centsWall Street: Dow Jones (-0.5%), S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq (-0.4%)Europe: FTSE (+0.6%), DAX (+1%), Stoxx 600 (+0.3%) Spot gold: +0.4% to $US3,326/ounce Oil (Brent crude): +3.8% to $US72.69/barrel Iron ore: +3.1% to $US103.90/tonne Bitcoin: -0.5% to $US117,455

Prices current around 7:45am AEST

12m agoTue 29 Jul 2025 at 11:33pm

Market recap: Alan Kohler’s finance report

It’s possible you might need a refresher on where markets markets are at (before the trading day begins).

If so, I can certainly recommend watching Alan Kohler’s finance report.

Alan has some interesting graphs on job vacancies and some worrying trends in China’s economy (particularly in relation to births and marriages).

Loading…25m agoTue 29 Jul 2025 at 11:21pmAussie dollar may be volatile if there are surprises in ABS inflation data

The Australian dollar might experience some volatility today, depending on what the latest ABS inflation figures reveal.

This morning, it fell slightly to 65.1 US cents.

The local currency “will be sensitive to a stronger than expected” June quarter inflation result because “it would make an August [interest rate] cut less certain,” according to Commonwealth Bank FX strategist Kristina Clifton.

Here’s a quick recap of what to expect:

Markets are anticipating headline inflation will be 0.8% in the three months to June (taking the annual rate to 2.2%). This is the inflation metric that consumers care more about.However, the Reserve Bank pays more attention to trimmed mean inflation, which strips out the most volatile price movements (as it’s a better measure of the long term trend).The RBA’s preferred measure of inflation is expected to come in at 0.7% for the June quarter (taking the yearly rate to 2.7%).

RBA’s economics team’s prediction of the ‘trimmed mean’ result is largely in line with market expectations.

Ms Clifton says that that “should be enough to support expectations” of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut by the RBA at its next meeting, in two weeks.

(In case you’re wondering, the RBA’s cash rate target is currently 3.85%, its lowest level in two years)

Meanwhile, NAB’s senior FX strategist Rodrigo Catril says his bank is expecting the cash rate to be slashed in August, November and February (down to 3.1%).

His forecast for quarterly ‘trimmed mean’ inflation (0.7%) is in line with what markets are thinking.

AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver said whether the RBA board decides to cuts rates on August 12 could be a fine line:

“In terms of sensitivity, we would regard a 2.8% yoy [year on year] rise in trimmed mean inflation or less as consistent with an August rate cut as it will still be consistent with forecasts for inflation to head back to the mid-point of the RBA’s target,” Mr Oliver wrote in a research note to clients.

“But 2.9% yoy or more would mean a high risk that the RBA will remain on hold again.”

50m agoTue 29 Jul 2025 at 10:55pmThe ATO traded people for programs and is still grappling with the consequences

A decade ago, the Australian Tax Office (ATO) management faced a tough choice. Confronting government demands to cut costs, they made a simple trade-off: people for programs.

The ATO would slash staff numbers and instead rely on automated systems and slick computer algorithms to process returns and pick up tax fraud.

Between 2013 and 2019, the ATO shed close to 6000 people — almost a quarter of its staff. Some of the hardest hit were those sections that detect fraud and chase up debt.

The cost of that decision is only now being revealed, in half a dozen scathing reports by the auditor-general, the inspector-general of taxation, the Australian Public Service Commission (APSC) and others, which provide a sweeping account of how the ATO is failing.

For more, here’s the latest analysis by Neil Chenoweth:

1h agoTue 29 Jul 2025 at 10:34pmBYD battles Tesla for dominance as Australian EV sales hit a new record

Sales of electric cars sales in Australia hit a record high in June, but they’re still just over 10% of the overall new car market.

Tesla still had the highest number of pure EV sales, but BYD sold more vehicles when hybrids were included.

Australia’s new vehicle emissions standards (NVES), introduced this year, are expected to boost EV sales further.

From this month, penalties will apply for car makers that don’t meet the new fleet-wide emissions targets.

To avoid fines, manufacturers will need to balance the sales of high-emission models (ie. utes and 4WDs) by selling hybrids and EVs to reduce their overall fleet emissions.

Industry observers say those rules act as a powerful incentive for car makers that continue to sell petrol vehicles to shift to EVs and hybrids, even at a loss.

Here’s the latest story by Rhiana Whitson:

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1h agoTue 29 Jul 2025 at 10:15pm

Scott Farquhar to speak at National Press Club today … and on The Business

Atlassian co-founder and former CEO Scott Farquhar is making an appearance at the National Press Club today.

He has also done an interview with The Business, highlighting some key elements of his speech, which will air on the program tonight.

You’ll be able to watch that interview on-demand this afternoon, along with my write-up of Farquhar’s vision for Australia’s future in an AI-powered world, which will go live after he starts speaking about 12:30pm AEST.

1h agoTue 29 Jul 2025 at 10:15pmIMF says global and Australian economy showing resilience against tariffs

Australia’s economic growth forecasts have been revised upwards by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) despite ongoing uncertainty around Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Since April, the agency has upgraded Australia’s projected GDP growth from 1.6 to 1.8 per cent in 2025, and from 2.1 to 2.2 per cent in 2026.

But it was still warning of a slowdown in global growth compared to the last few years.

“Overall, risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside,” the IMF’s report warned.

Among the biggest boosts to this forecast, and largest unknowns in the future, was Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, as US firms sought to bring forward imports to beat the president’s August 1 deadline.

You can read more about it here:

1h agoTue 29 Jul 2025 at 10:05pmInflation data will determine whether the RBA cuts rates in August

In a few hours, we’ll get some clarity on whether the Reserve Bank is likely to cut interest rates at its board meeting in two weeks (or keep rates on hold again).

The latest inflation figures will be released at 11:30am AEST, and the RBA will be paying close attention to the details.

The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to have risen 0.8% in the June quarter (taking the yearly increase to 2.2%), according to a Reuters poll of economists.

However, the central bank pays more attention to a measure called “trimmed mean inflation”, which strips out the most extreme price changes (for example, petrol, fruits and vegetable prices are usually ignored).

According to that economist poll, quarterly trimmed mean inflation is likely to come in at 0.7% (taking the yearly rate to 2.7%).

If the figures come in as expected (or lower), the RBA will almost certainly reduce the cash rate at its next meeting on August 11-12.

That’s after the central bank shocked everyone by keeping rates on hold at its last meeting (a few weeks ago) — despite Australia’s leading economists and the Big Four banks predicting a July rate cut was guaranteed to happen!

RBA governor Michele Bullock indicated her colleagues wanted to see more evidence of inflation coming down before cutting rates again. So it’s possible we might see that evidence today.

1h agoTue 29 Jul 2025 at 9:59pmASX to slip, Wall Street retreats with US-China trade talks in limbo

Welcome to the ABC’s business and finance blog! I’ll be your guide this morning.

Australian shares are likely to start their day slightly lower (or flat), given ASX futures are down 0.1%.

It follows a weak lead from Wall Street, which slipped from its record highs after US negotiators ended trade talks with their Chinese counterparts in Stockholm with no final agreement.

Both countries have expressed willingness to extend their “trade truce”, potentially for another 90 days (to avoid a situation where they re-impose crippling tariffs of more than 130% on each other’s imports).

The final decision on whether to extend the US-China truce rests with US President Donald Trump, who can be notoriously challenging to predict.

In the end, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.4%.

Meanwhile, the biggest moves were seen on oil markets. Brent crude futures, in particular, jumped 3.5% to $US72.51 a barrel.

That’s after Mr Trump warned he would start imposing tariffs and other measures on major oil producer Russia “10 days from today” if its president, Vladmir Putin,,does not make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine.

For those who’ve noticed, the US president has been rather “soft” on Russia (and hesitant to criticise Putin until recently), they’ll have to see it to believe it…