The Indianapolis Colts still have the AFC South lead, but if they lose to the Houston Texans this weekend, the race for the division title becomes a lot more interesting for the final stretch of the season.

Let’s take a look at the latest odds for Sunday’s game, and then I’ll do my best to predict what the final score will be.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Moneyline

Total

The spread has moved one point towards the Texans this week, from +4.5 to +3.5. The total has remained steady at 44.5.

In this week’s edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I wrote about why I’m taking the points with Houston:

I think it’s time to sell some stock in the Indianapolis Colts. The play of Daniel Jones has been concerning of late, and they can only do so much by running the football. He has fourth in EPA+CPOE through the first five weeks, but has been 11th in that metric since Week 6. Their offense is still good enough to produce at a high level against poor defenses, but now they have to take on arguably the best defense in the league.

The Texans’ defense ranks second in opponent EPA per play, third in opponent success rate, third in opponent yards per play, and second in defensive DVOA. That good of a defense has a chance to wreak havoc against Jones.

C.J. Stroud is also expected to start this week, and he’ll get to face a regressing Colts defense that has not been as good as it was early in the season. All signs point toward the Texans at least covering this spread on Sunday.

The path to victory for the Texans is a dominant performance by their defense. That’s why, in my opinion, if you’re betting on the Texans, then you should consider betting the UNDER as well. I think the Colts squeeze out the win in a low-scoring affair.

Final score prediction: Texans 20, Colts 23

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain’s bets here!