The future of China’s energy portfolio is uncertain due to its ever-increasing reliance on renewable energy from wind, solar, and hydrogen. However, fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas continue to play an important role in China’s energy mix. Through the first half of this decade, the energy landscape in China will change significantly, and whether those changes will help the country achieve its clean energy goals or hinder them depends on what energy sources are ultimately abandoned by government policymakers.
The rising paradox: Balancing clean energy gains with fossil-fuel dependence
China has invested heavily in renewables over the last number of years. However, it’s clear from recent Chinese government policy statements that the overall strategy is actually much more complex than simply building wind and solar farms, as it embraces several so-called ‘green fuels,’ such as hydrogen (green), hydrogen-containing ammonium, and sustainable aircraft fuel (SAF). FuelCellsWorks has described it as “the most diverse pivot” regarding green fuels for the country.
It’s not a case of greenwashing. It’s a bold statement. Green hydrogen produced using renewable electricity to split water can be fed into many different types of industries. It can be converted into ammonia for fertilizer and shipping, as well as fuel for aircraft, enabling cleaner travel for planes.
According to an analyst, China’s momentum towards green hydrogen has the potential to revolutionize heavy manufacturing and transportation in China’s upcoming 5-year plan (2026–2030).
Inside China’s uneasy transition to clean hydrogen
There is a paradox hidden within those numbers. The energy transition report from Agora illustrates that while the amount of renewable hydrogen produced in China is steadily increasing, the majority of hydrogen produced in the country still comes from coal. While the old dragon may have awakened and taken notice of its surroundings, it still hasn’t completely gone to sleep! There remains a risk that China locks itself into a fossil fuel dependency cloaked in a ‘green’ label.
Workers of change: Coal miners, engineers, and everyone in between
The lives of everyday Chinese people are impacted by the various plans and policies being created. For those who live in areas rich in coal, the fossil fuel industry is their source of employment, income, and identity, such as this adorable megaproject, smashing the global hydrogen race. The phased-out approach toward coal from an environmental viewpoint is seen as a threat to the way of life of these people.
Other parts of China see something less flashy but just as important happening right now. Engineers, along with their technicians, are creating some very large green hydrogen-to-ammonia complexes. In Inner Mongolia, many companies are constructing wind and solar systems to produce green ammonia, which will be used as either shipping fuel or even aviation fuel.
When clean energy masks coal and gas dependence: The hidden costs of a seemingly green transition
The year 2026 will be significant, as it coincides with China’s future Five-Year Plan that aims to change the role of green hydrogen, ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel from R&D projects to strategic focal points.
China faces a political gamble as investors who are heavily invested in fossil fuels continue to push for fossil fuel projects. Without strong federal regulations in 2026 and beyond, while the “green” economy may be expected to thrive, it could be founded on a dirty foundation or contribute to long-term increases in greenhouse gas emissions.
The future of energy in China remains uncertain and fraught with tension. The country has made progress in developing hydrogen fuel cells and ammonia fuel, but it still relies on fossil fuels. Over the next few years, the world will see if China will abandon its historical roots or simply mask them with a “green” approach, like this groundbreaking, massive solar giant invention with strange effects.
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