Bailey Dale and Jake Riccardi during the round seven match between GWS and Western Bulldogs at Manuka Oval, April 26, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

THE RACE for top-four spots and a critical double chance is set to go down to the wire as the clubs sitting in the top half of the ladder mostly continue on their winning ways.

Brisbane was the only genuine finals contender to suffer a defeat last week, but can claw back to within a win of top spot when the reigning premier faces Collingwood on Saturday night.

The top eight will already be shaken up by then after old foes Western Bulldogs and Greater Western Sydney open round 21, while Adelaide and Hawthorn meet in a mouthwatering clash on Friday night.

Here is what to look for during round 21 as well as a tip for each match.

Western Bulldogs v Greater Western Sydney, Marvel Stadium
Thursday, July 31, 7.30pm AEST

GET YOUR SEATS Buy your tickets for Bulldogs v Giants HERE

Last time: Western Bulldogs 17.11 (113) d GWS Giants 12.9 (81), R7 2025

What it means

The Western Bulldogs (11-8) continue to punish the lesser lights with a hammering of Essendon just the latest in six wins by more than 70 points. The Dogs have found it harder to get over the line against fellow finals contenders, although the Giants are the one side they have beaten from the top half of the ladder this season as they seek to find a way back into the top eight.

Greater Western Sydney (13-6) sent a warning to the rest of the competition as it unleashed a nine-goal blitz for the second-heaviest scoring term of the season in a stunning turnaround that all but ended Sydney’s finals hopes. The Giants have now won six in a row to climb into top-four contention, though their arch-rivals the Dogs have proven to be a nemesis, allowing GWS only one victory from their past nine clashes.

Game shapers

Aaron Naughton has gone a long way to answering his critics during a superb second half of the season, but hit new heights with a career-best seven goals against the undermanned Bombers. The high flyer has booted 26 goals in seven matches as the Bulldogs launch a late charge toward finals, while also taking plenty of heat off emerging star Sam Darcy.

Finn Callaghan is completing his rise to be among the leading midfielders in the competition as he puts together a superb season and becomes a key part of the way the Giants play. The 22-year-old is averaging a career-high 28.3 disposals and 4.6 clearances, and does most of his damage in the forward half as his exquisite kicking sends the ball into the Giants’ attack 5.7 times a game.  

Early tip: Western Bulldogs by 11 points

Finn Callaghan during the round 20 match between GWS and Sydney at ENGIE Stadium, July 25, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Adelaide v Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval
Friday, August 1, 7.10pm ACST

GET YOUR SEATS Buy your tickets for Crows v Hawks HERE

Last time: Hawthorn 6.11 (47) d Adelaide 5.14 (44), R14 2025

What it means

Adelaide (14-5) placed itself right among the premiership contenders as it blew away bitter rivals Port Adelaide for the greatest margin in Showdown history a week after thumping Gold Coast. The healthy percentage boost has helped lift the Crows to within touching distance of top spot, while a victory over top-four hopeful Hawthorn would be a huge step toward locking in a double chance.  

Hawthorn (13-6) can keep eyeing a double chance after comfortable wins over Carlton and Port Adelaide but will have to earn its prime position, with Adelaide the first of three encounters with top-four contenders still to come. The Hawks can turn to an ominous record against the Crows that stretches over more than a decade with 15 wins in their past 19 matches, including the past three.

Game shapers

Jake Soligo is continuing his steady rise in his fourth season with Adelaide as he lifts his impact whether playing near goal or adding muscle to the engine room. The 22-year-old gathered a career-high 35 disposals against the Power while showing that he can also do damage in parts of the ground with 13 contested possessions, nine score involvements and two goals.

James Sicily has been below his best for much of the year but after spending time on the sidelines to get his body right appears ready to have a huge say on the Hawks’ run home as well as a possible finals campaign. The skipper showed that he has returned to form in his fourth game back from injury with a season-high 25 disposals against the Blues as he again looms as a weapon at either end.

Early tip: Adelaide by 13 points

James Sicily in action during the R20 match between Hawthorn and Carlton at the MCG on July 14, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Melbourne v West Coast, Marvel Stadium
Saturday, August 2, 1.20pm AEST

GET YOUR SEATS Buy your tickets for Demons v Eagles HERE

Last time: Melbourne 16.12 (108) d West Coast 11.10 (76), R8 2025

What it means

Melbourne (6-13) must take the opportunity to immediately put its late horror show against St Kilda behind it as it faces the bottom-placed West Coast. The Demons should have little trouble brushing aside the Eagles to improve on their recent run of one win in eight matches, though they also need to overcome a poor record at Docklands with only one win at the venue in more than three years.

West Coast (1-18) continued its recent stretch of improved form when, for the third week in a row, it kept pace with its opponent before Fremantle put the foot down for a comfortable Derby win. The Eagles might like their chances better against a Demons outfit now under the blowtorch, as they search for a second win of the year before a run of games against sides still in the finals race.

Game shapers

Max Gawn was imperious as Melbourne pulled away to a comprehensive lead over St Kilda as he gathered 17 disposals with seven clearances as well as 45 hitouts. But the Demons skipper would want his time over again and will be especially keen to bounce back after losing his head when the Saints were awarded a free kick with eight seconds on the clock and somehow snatched the win.

Tim Kelly has had a season to forget as he has been unable to have the impact he would like in leading a young West Coast midfield and has even been dropped from the side. The 31-year-old finally showed signs of returning to form, gathering 26 disposals and booting two goals as a shining light as the Eagles fell short against the Dockers.

Early tip: Melbourne by 33 points

Max Gawn and Melbourne players ahead of the round 20 clash with St Kilda. Picture: AFL Photos

Gold Coast v Richmond, People First Stadium
Saturday, August 2, 4.10pm AEST

GET YOUR SEATS Buy your tickets for Suns v Tigers HERE

Last time: Richmond 12.8 (80) d Gold Coast 9.15 (69), R6 2025

What it means

Gold Coast (12-6) has shown few signs of the inconsistencies that plagued it in previous years with five of its six defeats this time around coming against fellow top-four contenders. The outlier is a shock loss to the Tigers that could still prove costly in the race for a double chance, though the Suns went a long way to proving they are a different side with a crushing win over their nemesis Brisbane.

Richmond (5-14) escaped with its reputation intact after it backed up a pair of victories with another performance filled with promise as it kept Collingwood within sight rather than being blown away. The Tigers have arguably already overachieved this season, but completing the double over the Suns would be icing on the cake before eyeing off a couple more winnable games.

Game shapers

Alex Davies was widely expected to burst onto the scene with Gold Coast as he had a body built for top-level football when he joined as a highly-touted academy graduate. The 23-year-old was made to bide his time before playing a first game in his fifth season but presented his case for a regular place in the side as he gathered 30 disposals while offering valuable support to the Suns’ onball brigade.

Nathan Broad continues to grow in stature as he perfectly plays the part of the elder statesman and sets the tone in defence, helping to guide the Tigers’ rebuild. The three-time premiership player remains as reliable as he has always been, whether putting opposition forwards in his pocket or hurting them the other way while averaging 14.8 disposals and three rebounds a game.  

Early tip: Gold Coast by 39 points

Ben Long and Nathan Broad during the round six match between Richmond and Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, April 19, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Sydney v Essendon, SCG
Saturday, August 2, 4.15pm AEST

GET YOUR SEATS Buy your tickets for Swans v Bombers HERE

Last time: Essendon 11.5 (71) d Sydney 8.15 (63), R9 2025

What it means

Sydney (9-10) has finally paid the price for its stuttering start to the season after being on the receiving end of the Greater Western Sydney tsunami that surely ended its finals hopes. The Swans are left crunching the numbers on the most unlikely of mathematical possibilities, though they might appreciate turning the tables on a side now suffering its own injury crisis.

Essendon (6-12) is showing all the signs to suggest that it is ready to ring the siren on its season as the heavy defeats continue to mount up almost as high as its injury list. The Bombers can at least take the opportunity to test fresh talent and get games into their kids, with the Swans perhaps even ripe for the picking after falling out of the finals race.

Game shapers

Errol Gulden has had one of the more decorated starts to a career with an All-Australian blazer, club champion award and a fourth-place in the Brownlow Medal before he reaches 100 matches this week. The 23-year-old has not been able to hit the same heights this year after breaking an ankle in the pre-season, but since his return has shown how important he is to the Swans with 24.6 disposals a game.

Archie Roberts has been a shining light in what has turned into a dark season for the Bombers as he cements a critical spot in the defence in just his second season. The 19-year-old can lock down on dangerous opposition forwards or find plenty of the ball himself while playing with an edge that makes a likely duel with Swans firebrand Tom Papley one worth tuning in for.

Early tip: Sydney by 47 points

Errol Gulden celebrates a goal during round 19, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images

Collingwood v Brisbane, MCG
Saturday, August 2, 7.35pm AEST

GET YOUR SEATS Buy your tickets for Magpies v Lions HERE

Last time: Collingwood 16.9 (105) d Brisbane 7.11 (53), R6 2025

What it means

Collingwood (15-4) bounced back from a mini slump that included a pair of defeats as it kept Richmond at arm’s length before gradually pulling away. The Magpies can go a long way to locking in a critical top-two spot that can open up the path to two home finals with a fifth win in as many clashes with its old foes the Lions.

Brisbane (13-1-5) will be out to respond to a crushing defeat to its increasingly noisy neighbours Gold Coast last week, while also aiming to climb back to within half a win of Collingwood in top spot. The Lions have turned around their horror record at the MCG with their only defeat at the ground in the past two seasons coming against the Pies late last year by the narrowest of margins.

Game shapers

Nick Daicos is closing on a first Brownlow Medal as he builds on his journey from being one of the most damaging defenders in the competition to joining the very top midfielders. The 22-year-old showed that he can be just as potent in the front half when booting an equal career-high three goals against Richmond while gathering 40 or more disposals for the ninth time in his 89 games.  

Josh Dunkley is often the key to the Lions’ engine room as the midfielder setting out to contain the most threatening opposition onballer while also hurting teams going the other way. The two-time premiership player has averaged 26 disposals and 14 tackles a game in the past three weeks, and can expect to be handed another critical role against the Pies.

Early tip: Collingwood by nine points

Nick Daicos and Josh Dunkley during the round 23 match between Collingwood and Brisbane at the MCG, August 17, 2024. Picture: Getty Images

St Kilda v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium
Sunday, August 3, 1.40pm AEST

GET YOUR SEATS Buy your tickets for Saints v Kangaroos HERE

Last time: St Kilda 15.13 (103) d North Melbourne 10.5 (65), R8 2024

What it means

St Kilda (6-13) must still be riding a wave of emotion after coming from the clouds to chase down Melbourne and set a record for turning over the greatest three-quarter time deficit in history. Perhaps most importantly, the win helped the Saints snap a six-match losing streak that was putting down clouds over their season, while they can climb further from the bottom four with a second win in a row.

North Melbourne (4-1-14) is at real risk of giving up much of the gains it has made this season after it conceding at least 18 goals in four of its past five matches across a month of demoralising defeats. The Kangaroos have an opportunity to start to rebuild hope even with an eye on next season against a Saints outfit that has had its own concerns despite a stunning final term last week.

Game shapers

Rowan Marshall played one of the more critical bit-part roles in recent times as he helped hatch the plan to make the most of a 6-6-6 infringement, then unleashed a pinpoint pass to set up Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera’s match-winning goal against the Demons. The Saints ruck continues to brush aside speculation around his future as he averages 18 disposals and 27 hitouts this year.

Charlie Comben has been used to plug a hole in the Kangaroos’ forward line with spearhead Nick Larkey sidelined, but he quickly showed his worth to the defence when he was finally sent back to try to contain the Cats’ Jeremy Cameron. The 24-year-old is putting together a solid season as he finally gets a relatively injury-free run while growing into a key piece of the Roos’ long-term puzzle.

Early tip: St Kilda by 21 points

Rowan Marshall during the round 18 match between St Kilda and Sydney at Marvel Stadium, July 13, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Geelong v Port Adelaide, GMHBA Stadium
Sunday, August 3, 3.15pm AEST

GET YOUR SEATS Buy your tickets for Cats v Power HERE

Last time: Geelong 17.13 (115) d Port Adelaide 5.9 (39), R10 2025

What it means

Geelong (13-6) barely stepped out of cruise mode as it dismantled North Melbourne with slick and skilful ball movement for the highest winning margin of the season. The Cats have little option but to keep the foot down as they try to fine-tune for a likely finals appearance, chasing a top-four finish while facing several teams already out of contention on the run home.

Port Adelaide (8-11) is out to bounce back from the greatest defeat in Showdown history while searching for a third scalp from the top of the ladder to help build hope for next year. The Power have at least been more competitive at the Cats’ home fortress in recent years and snatched a narrow victory last year to snap a 16-year losing streak at the venue.

Game shapers

Bailey Smith continues his stunning rise to join the top midfielders in the competition as much as the Brownlow Medal fancies since moving to Geelong. The 24-year-old has been a ball magnet in his first season with the Cats and eased to an equal career-high 43 disposals against the Kangaroos, with his tireless running looming as a weapon as his new side prepares for a finals campaign.

Miles Bergman had a Showdown to forget after gathering the ball at the opening bounce and launching it the wrong way in what turned out to be the greatest defeat in the history of the clash. But the 23-year-old has shown that he has more strings to his bow than being an attacking half-back, with regular stints in the midfield helping him to average a career-high 17.8 disposals and 1.6 clearances.

Early tip: Geelong by 41 points

Miles Bergman during the round 20 match between Adelaide and Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval on July 26, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Fremantle v Carlton, Optus Stadium
Sunday, August 3, 3.10pm AWST

GET YOUR SEATS Buy your tickets for Dockers v Blues HERE

Last time: Carlton 10.13 (73) d Fremantle 9.9 (63), R4 2024

What it means

Fremantle (13-6) keeps piling pressure on the sides sitting above it on the ladder, with a comfortable victory over cross-town rivals West Coast making it nine wins from the past 10 matches as it chases a top-four spot. The Dockers’ rise is allowing them to build a fortress with nine wins in their past 10 matches in Perth, and they can start to cast an eye toward locking in a home final.

Carlton (7-12) did a lot right against top-four hopefuls Hawthorn without being ruthless enough in its forward thrusts, before slumping to a fifth defeat in the past six matches as its season peters out. The Blues can hope to build on having one of the better recent records of visitors to Perth, though only one of their stretch of five wins at the venue has come against the Dockers.

Game shapers

Hayden Young has quickly proven to be the icing on the cake for Fremantle since returning from a long absence due to a hamstring injury to play a crucial role in a pair of victories. The 24-year-old is still to play significant game time in either of his two matches back, but showed how important he will be on the run home with 23 disposals and three goals to be voted best afield against the Eagles.

Charlie Curnow has not had the season he would have wanted, with 32 majors from 18 matches being his lowest goalscoring average since an injury-riddled 2021 campaign. After a rare lean patch of four matches without a goal, the dual Coleman medallist is showing early signs of a return to form with five majors in the past two weeks ahead of reaching 150 games.

Early tip: Fremantle by 27 points

Hayden Young celebrates a goal during round 20, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos/Getty Images