The winter meetings are in the rearview mirror, and the Seattle Mariners lineup looks a whole lot like it did before they started. They found a new reliever (Jose Ferrer) that should help, but they opened up a new hole on the bench.

With a tweak, Jose Ferrer could be special in Mariners’ bullpen

What do we know, what do we think, and what is left to be determined about this offseason?

We know they want to bring in one more bat. Not two or three. Just one. And it sure seems like they are focused on an infielder rather than someone to play right field.

That makes sense, right? They seem relatively comfortable letting Victor Robles and Dom Canzone handle the open spot in the outfield knowing that could be a spot to upgrade at the trade deadline. And with three young infielders pushing for playing time, adding two outside bats would take away valuable opportunities.

We know they need a backup catcher. The organization has never been comfortable with Harry Ford’s future as a catcher and has been willing to deal him for quite some time. They could be wrong and he might turn into a quality big leaguer at that position. But they needed another leverage arm in the ‘pen and, perhaps just as important, they are cognizant of not breaking in too many rookies at one time.

With Cal Raleigh serving as the designated hitter as often as he does, the backup will find themselves in the lineup often. Penciling in Ford for those at-bats would have put even more pressure on Cole Young, Colt Emerson and Ben Williamson.

We know they still like current free agent Jorge Polanco… at the right price. Again, this makes perfect sense. He is a known quantity, which is a quality that has eluded this team for a while. Their track record in bringing in outside bats has been spotty at best, so having real data on Polanco and his ability to handle T-Mobile Park is valuable. He still fits their need for a veteran that can play second base, DH and switch hit.

But this all gets complicated by what we think.

We think Polanco wants (and could get) somewhere between $45-50 million on a three-year contract – at least those were the numbers speculated on by ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan. And at 32 years old with a lengthy injury history, those numbers would scare me off.

But we also think there are a lot of options to fill that role if Polanco finds that kind of offer elsewhere. From Ketel Marte to Brendan Donovan to Brandon Lowe, or Jake Cronenworth, Jeff McNeil, infield bats are plentiful on the trade market. Add in premier free agents Bo Bichette and Alex Bregman (and even Eugenio Suárez), and teams looking to acquire infield help have lots of choices, while the sellers may need to drop their asking prices.

I think that is what is holding everything up: no one wants to blink first. The players and sellers want what they believe they are worth, but the high supply is balancing out the demand for their services. Maybe that means Polanco will lower his price and the stalemate ends with him back in Seattle. In fact, recent rumors that the Pirates have pivoted to exploring a trade for Lowe would shrink Polanco’s market considerably and make it more likely he returns.

I also think that if the Mariners have an opportunity to improve their roster, they should take it. More than any other option, Marte offers that chance. He is a star-level player who is under a reasonable contract, especially if Polanco could receive $15 million per year.

Can the Mariners give up what Arizona wants in Ketel Marte trade?

Marte is due just $15 million in 2026 and $12 million in 2027, followed by a year at $20 million and two more at $22 million before a player option at just $11.5 million. If the Mariners made a deal with Arizona for him, I would think a package could start with Cole Young (who would be less valuable with Marte on the team), and one of the top minor league pitchers (Jurrangelo Cijntje, Ryan Sloan or Kade Anderson).

It would be hard to swallow, but it would also put the M’s in prime position to compete for the World Series in the next few seasons.

What’s left to be determined? Almost everything!

I still believe that Polanco is the keystone. Once he makes a decision, everything else will fall into place. If he ends up back in Seattle, the M’s can go find a backup catcher (Mitch Garver or maybe Jonah Heim?), maybe another veteran reliever and wait for July. They can spend the first few months of the season learning about their young infielders and then see what the trade deadline holds for them.

It would be a good offseason. They would have retained their top two free agents while strengthening their ‘pen and providing chances for the next generation to grow and still retaining flexibility to add at the deadline.

But if Polanco leaves, or they get tired of waiting, they have tons of options. Do they want to sacrifice some long-term assets for the immediate help that Marte would offer? Do they want to add some power with Lowe? Are they more interested in the contact skills of Donovan? All three players make them better – and in some cases, better than with Polanco – but hurt their ability to add at the deadline.

The meetings may be over, but the fun is just getting started.

Seattle Mariners offseason coverage

• Mariners pick two, lose one in minor league phase of Rule 5 draft
• The one move Passan says could make Mariners the AL favorites
• Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto named Baseball America Executive of the Year
• A reunion with Mitch Garver now makes perfect sense for the M’s
• Was Harry Ford trade the best return Seattle Mariners could get?