In Canada, the Saturday game in Toronto is the feature game of the week. Fans from other cities can complain about the Maple Leafs playing at home on Saturday nights, but it’s a national convention in three-hour form and has been since television came north. The massive ratings mean that if any player does something special in that game, it’s breaking news.
On Saturday in Toronto, Edmonton Oilers winger Vasily Podkolzin scored two goals. One was a net-front tally, with Podkolzin tipping the puck and getting lucky on a couple of bounces. He gets credit for going to the tough areas and showing good hand-eye coordination. The second was a lovely tip on a hard pass from Leon Draisaitl, again showing plus skills.
Podkolzin’s eight goals in 33 games this season match his 82-game total from one year ago. He’s blossoming as an offensive player and is perhaps finding the extra gear predicted for him on draft day. It’s been a long road, but Podkolzin has arrived. How close could he get to his draft day promise?
The draft day scouting report
To answer the question, let’s go back to the beginning. The 2019 draft had a wide range of rankings and specific issues in scouting reports. Here’s a cross-section.
Scott Wheeler at The Athletic had Podkolzin No. 19. Wheeler: “He gets to his top speed quickly and his top speed is a lot to handle in transition (more north-south than east-west), he’s physical, has excellent hands and he can really — and I mean really — shoot it (though his drawback is a little too long for my liking). Teams don’t want to use a top-10 pick on a player who may become a checking third-liner who can play with pace and irritate teams but doesn’t actually produce all that much.”
That’s a splendid scouting report and foretells the difficulties faced by the Vancouver Canucks in drafting, then developing Podkolzin. He does have tremendous tools, but has struggled offensively in his NHL career. Even last season, with Edmonton, he scored just eight goals while playing substantial minutes with high skill linemates.
Corey Pronman at The Athletic ranked him No. 12: “Podkolzin can make the flashy plays to deke defenders, but he rarely does that off a standstill or along the walls. He has hard skill. Podkolzin is typically full speed ahead to the net; and if he needs to go around or through you, he will. He’s also a very good playmaker and finisher who can take advantage of space if defenders make off him by making a pass or sniping from a distance.”
Pronman’s line about “hard skill” matches Podkolzin’s strengths. His goals against the Maple Leafs on Saturday indicate the player has successfully graduated from talent to production. He’ll need to prove it over the rest of this season, but Pronman’s description of the range of skills remains there and is now being successfully deployed in the NHL.
Red Line Report are notoriously hard markers, but loved Podkolzin on draft day. He was No. 3 on their list. Red Line: “Great combination of skill, shot and nasty demeanor. Always intense and plays with great effort. Wins all his battles. Rips cannons for goals.” Red Line called him a “first line sniper with toughness” and compared him to Vladimir Tarasenko. We’ll count that as the outer marker for Podkolzin’s ceiling, and agree he isn’t there yet.
Wait five years
The prevailing wisdom for draft picks is to wait five years after they are chosen to make the call. For a team like Vancouver, annually invested in making the playoffs and being relevant in the standings, patience is a difficult thing to muster. In fairness to Canucks management, Podkolzin was playing a depth role (bottom six) and getting passed often by other Vancouver prospects.
The five-year rule is worth looking at in Podkolzin’s case. Was he any good in Vancouver?
YearAgeGPPts-60Goal Pct
2021-22
20
79
1.47
57
2022-23
21
39
0.96
43
2023-24
22
19
0.62
36
2024-25
23
82
1.43
49
2025-26
24
32
1.99
62
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
This is Podkolzin as an NHL player. He arrived at 20, was inserted directly into the lineup and performed well in the role deployed. His goal share was strong, and he played about 26 percent of his five-on-five minutes against elites. That’s bottom six, but at 20, he was impressive in all areas but individual offence. His 1.47 points per 60 in 2021-22 ranked No. 258 among the more than 400 forwards who played 400-plus minutes that season. That’s third-line offence as a 20-year-old rookie. Add in a 57 percent goal share, and his first season was solid.
He didn’t build on it, though, as happens when a team is changing coaches often. Vancouver went from Travis Green to Bruce Boudreau to Rick Tocchet in the first two seasons of Podkolzin’s NHL career. He got lost in the flood. In his last two seasons with the Canucks, Podkolzin played 72 AHL and 58 NHL games. His value was reduced from his draft number (No. 10 in the 2019 draft) to the No. 117 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft. That selection would eventually be returned to Edmonton for Evander Kane.
Podkolzin in Edmonton
Last season, Podkolzin started on a line with centre Derek Ryan and winger Corey Perry. The line didn’t score, but outshot the Winnipeg Jets 3-2 with an expected goal share of 67 percent five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick. As the season evolved, Podkolzin was linked most often with Draisaitl and scored 1.43 points per 60 with a 49 percent goal share. His points per 60 ranked No. 234 among forwards who played 400-plus minutes at five-on-five. That’s third-line offence, and he was almost 50 percent in goal share. The downside comes in the knowledge that he played with Draisaitl, where he scored 2.17 points per 60 with a 59 percent goal share. He wasn’t getting much done away from the second line. This year, things are looking better.
Stat2024-252025-26
Pts-60 overall
1.43
1.99
NHL rank
234 of 395
108 of 388
Level
third line
second line
Pts-60 w/29
2.17
2.23
NHL rank
54 of 395
71 of 388
Level
first line
first line
Pts-60 w/o 29
0.71
1.52
NHL rank
381 of 395
198 of 395
Level
fourth line
third line
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The numbers show Podkolzin has been highly productive with Draisaitl in both seasons. He’s getting zoomed by Draisaitl, of course, but that’s universal for all wingers. The big news this year is his increased production when playing on another line. He isn’t a driver of a unit individually, but the improvement year over year is impressive. Let’s answer the question.
How close could he get to his draft day promise?
The Canucks took him at No. 10, so the Red Line scouting report from 2019 is probably close to what the Vancouver draft room believed when taking Podkolzin. That’s a ceiling he’s unlikely to reach as an NHL player. However, if he can produce around 2.00 points per 60 at five-on-five, with the goal share staying at current levels, it would be reasonable to state Podkolzin is a legit second-line winger. That’s a valuable player. Oilers general manager Stan Bowman bought low on Podkolzin, and it has paid off handsomely. The Oilers have paid more in trade for less production many times over the last decade.