NFL Playoff picture: Week 16 shakes up the AFC and NFC standings

Week 16 saw several teams clinch playoff spots, and changed the pecking order in both the NFC and the AFC.

In the NFC, we have a new team in the No. 1 spot, and just two playoff spots left up for grabs as five teams have now clinched.

In the AFC, the race for the No. 1 spot remains tight, as six teams remain alive in the chase for the bye week.

Let’s break it all down.

NFL Playoff Picture

Here is the full state of play in the NFC ahead of Monday Night Football:

Seattle Seahawks (12-3) – x

Chicago Bears (11-4) – x

Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) – xy

Los Angeles Rams (11-4) – x

San Francisco 49ers (10-4) – x

Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)

Minnesota Vikings (7-8) – e

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)

Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) – e

Atlanta Falcons (5-9) – e

New Orleans Saints (5-10) – e

Washington Commanders (4-11) – e

Arizona Cardinals (3-11) – e

New York Giants (2-13) – e

x – Team has clinched a playoff spot
y – Team has clinched their division
e – Team has been eliminated from playoff contention

Thanks to Sunday’s action, only two playoff spots are left up for grabs in the NFC.

Let’s start at the top of the conference. Seattle’s huge overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams not only punched the Seahawks’ ticket for the playoffs, but it put them in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed in the conference. Seattle now controls their destiny in the chase for the top spot, as wins in their final two games (over Carolina and San Francisco) would give them the No. 1 seed.

The Philadelphia Eagles became the first team to clinch their division, as they wrapped up the NFC East with their win over the Washington Commanders on Saturday night. Philadelphia also became the first team to win the NFC East in back-to-back seasons since … the Eagles accomplished that feat back in 2004.

Speaking of the Panthers, Carolina moved into a playoff spot with their win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If the postseason began today the Panthers would be in as the No. 4 seed. Tampa Bay’s loss dropped them out of the playoffs, and behind the Minnesota Vikings in the standings. The two teams have matching 7-8 records, but the Vikings have a better conference record.

Tampa Bay can still win the division, however, as they play Carolina in Week 18.

Chicago’s win over the Packers moved the Bears one step closer to an NFC North title, while putting Green Bay’s playoff chances onto shakier ground. Still, with the Lions losing to the Steelers on Sunday afternoon, the Packers still have some breathing room.

Chicago also clinched a playoff spot with the Lions’ loss, as did the 49ers.

Here is what the NFC Wild Card matchups woulkd look like if the playoffs started today:

No. 7 Green Bay at No. 2 Chicago

No 6 San Francisco at No. 3 Philadelphia

No. 5 Los Angeles at No. 4 Carolina

Seattle would have the No. 1 seed and the bye week.

AFC Playoff Picture

Here is the state of play in the AFC:

Denver Broncos (12-3) – x

New England Patriots (12-3) – x

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4)

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)

Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)

Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) – e

Miami Dolphins (6-9) – e

Cincinnati Bengals (5-10) – e

New York Jets (3-12) – e

Cleveland Browns (3-12) – e

Las Vegas Raiders (2-13) – e

Let’s start at the bottom of the playoff teams. Houston’s win over the Raiders gives the Texans a two-game lead over Indianapolis in the win column, ahead of the Colts’ game tonight against the San Francisco 49ers.

The Los Angeles Chargers and the Buffalo Bills have matching 11-4 records, but the Chargers have a better AFC record (8-2 vs. 8-3) than the Bills, so the Chargers slot into the No. 5 slot while the Bills settle for No. 6. Los Angeles has two more AFC games remaining (Houston and Denver) while the Bills just have the Jets remaining on their list of AFC opponents.

Denver’s loss to Jacksonville, coupled with New England’s win over the Baltimore Ravens, tightened things at the top of the AFC as both teams have matching 12-3 records. The Broncos remain in the top spot due to a better record in common games (6-0 versus 4-1), and Denver has clinched that tiebreaker. However, in addition to the Patriots and Broncos, the Jaguars, Chargers, Bills, and Texans are all alive in the chase for the No. 1 pick.

Here is what the AFC playoffs would look like if they began today, with Denver having the bye week:

No. 7 Houston at No. 2 New England

No. 6 Buffalo at No. 3 Jacksonville

No. 5 Los Angeles at No. 4 Pittsburgh

What about Colts-49ers?

There are going to be some new fans around the league rooting for the 49ers tonight.

First, let’s start with what this game means for the teams playing on Monday Night Football. The 49ers clinched a playoff spot when the Lions lost to the Steelers, and are now jockeying for position in the NFC pecking order. If the 49ers defeat the Colts, they will improve to 11-4, tying them with the Los Angeles Rams. But the 49ers would move into the No. 5 spot and drop the Rams down to the No. 6 spot, thanks to San Francisco’s better division record. San Francisco is 4-1 in NFC West games, while the Rams are 3-2.

It is worth noting that the Seahawks are 3-2 in NFC West games as well, and they play San Francisco in Week 18 having already lost to the 49ers back in Week 1.

If the 49ers lose, they will remain in the No. 6 slot.

As for the Colts, they enter Monday Night Football on the outside looking in. A win would not move Indianapolis into a playoff spot, but they would close to within one game of the Texans for the No. 7 spot.

But if the Colts lose, they will be eliminated from AFC South title contention, and they would drop two games behind the Texans in the race for a playoff spot with two games remaining.

In addition, if the Colts lose, the Chargers, Bills, and Jaguars all clinch playoff spots.

NFL Playoff picture: Week 16 shakes up the AFC and NFC standings

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