When you’re in charge of a wildcard playoff team and don’t have the same capability to improve as those below you, there’s typically room for concern. However I don’t think Ottawa Senators GM Steve Staios has to worry all that much, seeing as how their performance down the stretch was more impressive than a mere wildcard team.

“New” Additions

A 14-5-2 record after the trade deadline yields the 4th-best points percentage in the league during that span, and given what we know about the newer additions that yet to play a full season, I don’t see taking the Atlantic this year as an unreasonable goal.

Dylan Cozens had 5 goals and 11 assists in 21 games. Over a full season, this should equate to 19 goals and 43 assists, for 62 points.Fabian Zetterlund’s production with San Jose over the last two seasons scales to 45 points over 82 games. That’s on the low end of second-liners but still better than what Ottawa had for most of the 2025 season (Amadio, Greig, Gaudette)I’m lumping David Perron in here too, as for reasons beyond his control, he wasn’t really around before February. In spite of his age, Perron increased his rate of production as the season went on, and 16 points in 34 games since his return from injury is respectable third-line production.A League-Wide Gorge on Cap Space

Due to a high volume of entry-level deals, along with the difficulty of acquiring NHL-ready talent, basement dwellers such as Chicago ($18.7M) and San Jose ($20.7M) seemingly have more cap space than they know what to do with. It’s not just them, however. Bubble teams like Detroit ($12.1M) and Columbus ($16.3M), and even a contender in Carolina (10.6M) still have a lot more than you typically need in August.

It’s usually a good problem to have, but what’s the point of saving your cash for a rainy day if you’re living in the desert? There aren’t any clubs in a desperate position to move a big contract, and most of the top free agents (Sam Bennett, Brock Boeser, and Aaron Ekblad) re-signed with their old teams. The only UFAs remaining that should get more than $1-2M are forward Jack Roslovic and defenseman Matt Grzelyck.

Looking ahead to next season, there are a ton of big names currently set to hit the open market – led by Conn Smythe McDavid, but with the cap rising to $104 million, and the Oilers having over $44 million to work with, we’re probably going to see contract extensions finalized before the trade deadline, provided those teams are in a playoff position. Which will leave a bunch of other teams with loads of space scrambling for the leftovers.

Learning Your CBAs

The new Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn’t kick in until next season, but keep it in mind – it’s clear that the value of cap space is rising.

Starting in September 2026, you can’t have multiple teams retain salary on the same player in the same deal. This effectively doubles the amount of space you’ll need to acquire a given player. Teams will be restricted even further by the $3.82M upper limit on Matthew Tkachuk/Nikita Kucherov LTIR relief shenanigans, along with the ban on sending players up and down to bank cap space without having them travel to the AHL city and play a game in the minors.

I don’t care if Matthew Schaefer’s leading the Calder Trophy race. If the Islanders are in a pinch, they’re boomeranging him and his ELC to Bridgeport. Hope he likes the, uh…*quick google search*…Barnum Museum.

What does all of this mean for the Senators? Nothing unique – they just need to keep as much room as possible to be in the running for key additions at the deadline, in their case, on the right wing, which is their weakest position. The more space they have, the easier it will be to facilitate deals with sellers.

Why Claude Giroux Won’t Necessarily Decline This Season

Despite no longer being the same player he was back when he became a Senator, Claude Giroux has retained several key attributes that continue to make him a viable option. Awareness at both ends of the ice, leadership qualities, and faceoff prowess – with a career-best 61.5% success rate in the circle this past season. Folks may look at the decline in points per game over the last three years, from 0.96 in 2023, to 0.78 in 2024, and finally to 0.62 in 2025, as a sign that he’s no longer fit to play in the top-six.

However, I don’t think the age curve is telling the full story, considering a 25-year-old Brady Tkachuk has posted a 1.01, 0.91, and 0.76 over that same span. An effect that applies to both players? The coaching change from D.J. Smith, who for all his faults, has run Sens teams that have ranked among the league’s best in generating rush chances, to a much more low-event Travis Green, whose first act led the league both in shutouts for and against.

Now that they’ve figured out how to defend, we could see the forwards including Tkachuk and Giroux rediscover what they’ve previously lost. The structure is in place, now it’s time to paint the walls and furnish the interior. I don’t think it’s unreasonable for this to counteract Giroux being another year older. Would it be a hot take to say his production this year will increase, if only by a point or two?

Pinto’s Potential Path to a Plethora of Points

We’ve been waiting for Shane Pinto to take that big step forward offensively from his career-high pace of 27 in 41 back in 2023-24, and with Tim Stützle and Cozens occupying the top two center positions, it’s going to be hard for Pinto to eke out a larger role.

It’s also true that in spite of Giroux still being capable, this won’t last forever, and newfound scouting efforts to add some promising wingers to the prospect pool won’t see any results until 3-5 years down the road. They’ve got space for an Alex Tuch or even a Kirill Kaprizov next summer, but those are extremely low-percentage outcomes.

So, an experiment I’d like to try this season would be letting Ridly Greig take the 3C role, and moving Pinto to the right wing. He’s hit the 20-goal mark in both of his full seasons, but runs into the same issues Josh Norris did as a driver of play and distributor of the puck at 5-on-5. He’s still a threat on the penalty kill, but perhaps a move to Stützle’s wing would allow Pinto to reach new heights as a goal-scorer.

This would also solve an issue with Greig – he’s better suited for the center position than the wing, as he’s more of a playmaker, and while he hasn’t been able to produce at a top-six pace with Stützle, he’s had successful stints with both Claude Giroux and Vladimir Tarasenko in the past.