Rajesh Palviya shares his market outlook amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and sectoral supply pressure. He highlights key levels to watch for Nifty and Bank Nifty, warning of further downside if support levels break. While pharma remains under pressure, he sees resilience in healthcare stocks like Fortis and Medanta. Palviya recommends a buy on Jindal Stainless and a short on Adani Enterprises, advising caution in the near term with selective long-term opportunities.ET Now: Yes, there were a lot of uncertainties while we started the week, but at the end of the week, we have some clarity, but with the clarity, we still have the volatility in the market. What should be the strategy for the next week?
Rajesh Palviya: Looking at the supply pressure throughout the week, Nifty and Bank Nifty are now both trading below their 50-day moving average. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has created some nervousness in the market and supply pressure across sectors. As a result, Nifty and Bank Nifty are both trading below their important support areas.
Nifty has broken the 24,600 support level on a closing basis. If the index continues to trade below 24,600 in the coming week, we may see further unwinding pressure, with a possible down move extending towards the 100-day moving average, which is placed around the 24,380 zone. This could be the next level where Nifty may correct further from the current level.
On the higher side, until the Nifty does not manage to cross above the 24,750, 24,800 level, the trend is likely to exhibit on the bearish side for the near-term perspective. Even for the Bank Nifty, 56,000 is the crucial resistance area on the higher side. So, if at all we need to have some comfort zone in the Bank Nifty, it has to cross 56,000 level on a closing basis, then only we may see some short covering action, till we are not able to regain above 56,000, maybe some more supply pressure we could see in Bank Nifty also, 55,500 is the immediate put base support area. If it breaks, then a possible downside move can extend towards 55,200 also. Even on the rollover activity also we have seen that Nifty has witnessed around 75.7% rollover, which is lower than the last three months and six-month average. So, shorts are still carried in the system for the Nifty as well as for the Bank Nifty, which may create further pressure in the next couple of days. So, it is going to be a slightly bearish opening for the next week as well, based on the technical as well as the derivative setup.
Live EventsET Now: One more sector which I would like to discuss with you. The pharmaceutical space was doing really well over the last two weeks, and then came the news. Donald Trump again. He demanded that drug companies slash prices to blow to industries. Trump did escalate his campaign to pressure pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices to the extent that he was sending letters to 17 of the world’s largest drug makers demanding they charge the US what other countries pay for new medicines. Now, on the back of this, there was an impact in domestic pharma companies as well. We were waiting for an opportunity to enter in the pharma space. Does this feel like an opportunity and should the view be to enter the pharma space if we get an opportunity like this?
Rajesh Palviya: There is a selloff in most of the pharma stocks, but still, if you analyse, like healthcare sector is still holding the ground at a higher level. So, if anyone wants to bet on at this current juncture, healthcare would be the right bet in the pharma as well as in the healthcare space. So, stocks like Fortis, Max Healthcare, and Medanta these all stocks are looking attractive, but on the pharma front, one should wait because still there is no clarity on the tariff front on this, and what kind of impact would be there on the companies going forward. So, maybe some profit taking would be there in the pharma space and some of the stocks from the pharma, like you Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy’s, even Aurobindo Pharma all these stocks has broken their near-term support area. Though long-term trajectory is still intact, on the near-term chart, there is weakness, and even the Nifty Pharma index is now trading just below to the 50-day moving average also. So, maybe we could see some more profit taking in pharma space in the coming days till this uncertainty is there. So, some more downsides would be there. So, wait in the pharma space at this juncture to buy. But yes, those who are looking for an opportunity for a long-term perspective, they can use this decline as a buying opportunity, but not at the current level, wait for some stability in the stock prices, then one can look to buy stocks. Divi’s Lab is our preferred choice. Glenmark and Divi’s Lab these two stocks are looking attractive. Laurus Lab is also looking attractive. So, these three to four stocks are looking attractive on the long-term as well as on the medium-term chart. But healthcare is a space where one can try to buy stocks like Fortis, Max Health, and Medanta; these three stocks are the preferred choice from the healthcare space.
ET Now: So, what are your stock calls?
Rajesh Palviya: One is on the buy side and one on the sell side. On the buy side, Jindal Stainless is looking attractive. Stock is comfortably holding above all its near-term, short-term moving averages. And the way stock has shown buying action in the last couple of days, it clearly shows that stock is poised for giving a breakout on the near-term chart and possible target towards 735 we could see in the near-term to short-term perspective. So, Jindal Stainless one can buy with a stop loss of 692. On the short side, Adani Enterprises has broken its important support area on the daily as well as on the weekly time frame. So, looking at the structure, a short buildup is there in the Adani Enterprises and we believe that furthermore, supply pressure we could see in the coming days. So, a possible down move can extend towards 2285 to 2270. So, one can go short in Adani Enterprises’ future with a stop loss of 2375.