Why the Bills will win the Super Bowl
Because it’s Josh Allen’s time, and he’s going into the playoffs relatively healthy. The Bills are basically a one-man show, and they’ve had a ton of success over Allen’s career but always fall short in the playoffs — usually against the Chiefs. But Mahomes and the Chiefs are nowhere to be found this postseason, so now it’s Allen’s time. If the foot injury is healed, there probably is not a quarterback in the AFC you’re taking over Allen. While the Bills aren’t the best team in the AFC, per my model, they don’t have to be if Allen can put on his superhero cape, pull the Bills to a Super Bowl and cement himself as the best in the game.
Why they won’t
Because outside of Allen, this team isn’t very good, and if Allen isn’t 100 percent healthy, they don’t have the horses on either side of the ball to make a run. The running game is awesome, but how much of that is a product of Allen’s mobility? What happens to their ground game if he cannot use his legs as much? Through the air, their pass-catching group is one of the worst in the playoffs. Meanwhile, on the defensive side of the ball, the Bills ranked 31st in rush EPA/play and 25th in success rate. It’s the playoffs, and if you can’t stop the run, how are you supposed to get off the field? We’ve seen that with the Bills giving up at least 23 points in five of their final 10 games.