Former Phillie Ranger Suárez is now a member of the Boston Red Sox after signing a five-year, $130 million contract. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
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Last, but certainly not least. The Boston Red Sox, who were the last MLB team to sign a free agent this off-season, did so with aplomb, inking left-hander Ranger Suárez to a five-year, $130 million deal the day after they lost third baseman Alex Bregman to the Chicago Cubs.
In Suárez, Boston gets that number two starter – to line up behind ace Garrett Crochet – that they have been desperately seeking. Last season, as measured by ERA, the Red Sox tied with the Guardians for the fourth best in MLB (3.70). However, those numbers belie the fact that their bullpen did the heavy lifting. When sorted by starters, Boston fell to 12th place, behind the Detroit Tigers. Their starters’ WHIP was actually 20th in MLB, so there was definitely room for improvement.
At the outset for the off-season, the club traded for veteran righty Sonny Gray, and got the Cardinals to throw in $20 million, to boot. A few weeks later, they sent surplus outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia to the Pittsburgh Pirates in return for hard-throwing Johan Oviedo (as well as two other prospects). Those two acquisitions had slotted in as starters #2 and #4, with Brayan Bello, who signed a long-term, team-friendly contract before the 2024 season (six years, $55 million), filling the #3 hole.
But with the signing of Suárez, everyone moves down a spot, and the Red Sox have a 1-2 punch of a hard-throwing lefty (Crochet) and a soft-throwing lefty (Suárez) at the top of their rotation. Under the adage of you can never have too much pitching, Boston also has a healthy Kutter Crawford (recovering from knee and wrist injuries), Patrick Sandoval (who the Sox signed to a two-year deal while he recovered from Tommy John surgery last year), Kyle Harrison (who came over as part of the Rafael Devers trade), Connelly Early (he threw an impressive 19 innings over four games last season), Payton Tolle (he threw a fair 16 innings over seven games last season), as well as prospects David Sandlin, Tyler Uberstine, and Shane Drohan. Tanner Houck, a name familiar to New Englanders, is not on the 40-man roster as he recovers from his own Tommy John surgery.
Wit Suárez, Boston gets a pitcher who FanGraphs projects to start 29 games with a 3.73 ERA and a 3.69 FIP. While he doesn’t throw hard (fastball in the low-90s), he has masterful command, with a plus slider and plus changeup. Even without an elite fastball, he still strikes out nearly nine batters per nine innings pitched, and has a 4/1 strikeout to walk ratio, and his 5.8% walk rate was in the top-20 among pitchers with at least 150 innings. And when batters do swing, he always seems to induce weak contact. Last year he was in the 98th percentile among pitchers in hard-hit rate (31.1%), 95th percentile in average exit velocity (86.5 mph), and 89th percentile in barrel rate (5.5%). Since 2021, Suárez has never allowed more than one home run per nine innings, which will be extremely helpful pitching at Fenway Park.
Boston was prepared to pay Bregman $165 million over five years, with a lot of that deferred. When he chose to take the Cubs’ money ($10 million more, also with a ton deferred), they quickly pivoted to Suárez to bolster their pitching staff (which was already ranked first in baseball by FanGraphs before the deal). And their Hot Stove work may not be done.
The Red Sox still, ostensibly, have holes to fill at second and third base – depending on the development of Kristian Campbell and the health of Marcelo Mayer. They could trade from their outfield or pitching depth – something that they were rumored to have attempted in order to pry Ketel Marte away from the Diamondbacks – to bolster their infield. They could try to replace Bregman with Nico Hoerner, a player who became extraneous in Chicago when Bregman signed with the Cubs. Or, they could make life easy (and fun) and reunite with Kiké Hernández, who would give them all sorts of positional flexibility and a winning pedigree, and would be someone who the fans knew and loved when he played in the Back Bay in 2021 and 2022. Hernández is a free agent – so Boston wouldn’t have to give up anyone to get him – and can probably be had for less than the $12 million Hoerner is due this season.
Red Sox Nation was in full revolt when Bregman signed elsewhere – and for good reason. But chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is a former big leaguer and a Yale graduate. He probably read Kipling in New Haven, and he has learned to keep his head when everyone about him is losing theirs and blaming it on him. He is building something sustainable, and clearly has learned how to react and act. Come October, those fans may be happy yet.