Sometimes the signs are there early.

Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young were five-star recruits who quickly became stars in college before they were taken with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.

Many times, though, the path to quarterback stardom takes a winding road.

Cam Ward’s career began as a no-star recruit at Incarnate Word. It took him five years and three stops before he ascended to the No. 1 pick. Josh Allen’s career began at Reedley College before he developed into a top-10 pick at Wyoming and eventually an NFL MVP. Patrick Mahomes? He was a three-star recruit and backup until his sophomore year at Texas Tech.

You get the idea.

We’re not saying that anyone on this list of rising college quarterbacks will become future NFL MVPs or Super Bowl winners. But it does include some guys who have really good ingredients.

To qualify for our list of risers, a QB could not rank in the first three tiers of The Athletic’s QB rankings. And, they could not have spent more than two seasons in college prior to this coming season.

Let’s dive in. 

1. CJ Bailey, NC State

The Athletic QB Tiers Ranking: No. 31, Tier 4

Dave Doeren has had three former starting quarterbacks drafted in the dozen years he’s spent coaching the Wolfpack: Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Finley and Devin Leary (who played his final season at Kentucky).

Bailey, a 6-6, 210-pound sophomore and former high school teammate of Jeremiah Smith at Hollywood (Fla.) Chaminade is in prime position to be the next one. Bailey started nine games as a true freshman last season and finished in the top 40 in passing efficiency among all FBS quarterbacks.

He completed a school-freshmen record 64.9 percent of his 302 pass attempts for 2,413 yards, 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Only Philip Rivers threw for more yards and touchdowns as a freshman at NC State than Bailey, who also ran for five TDs, including three against Georgia Tech – the most by a NC State QB since Russell Wilson had three in an upset win versus Florida State in 2010. When you’re doing things Rivers and Wilson did as freshmen, you’re in good company.

2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State

The Athletic QB Tiers Ranking: No. 32, Tier 4

For all the attention the Buckeyes receive for producing standout pass-catchers, the school’s recent run of quarterback draft picks is pretty good, too. Will Howard became the fifth Ohio State quarterback drafted since 2016, a couple of months ago – the most of any FBS program over the past decade.

Sayin, the top-ranked quarterback in the 2024 recruiting cycle from Carlsbad, Calif., enters his redshirt freshman season in Columbus in position to carry the torch with a collection of weapons around him, including Smith.

Here’s a stat for you to chew on: No Ohio State quarterback has finished lower than 13th in passing efficiency among FBS quarterbacks since J.T. Barrett placed 55th in 2016. Every other starting quarterback since has finished in the top-10 except Kyle McCord (13th) in 2023.

3. Demond Williams Jr., Washington

The Athletic QB Tiers Ranking: No. 33, Tier 4

Jedd Fisch made sure to bring the four-star recruit with him when he left Arizona for Seattle, and the freshman took over as the starter with two games to go last season.

Williams, listed at 5-11, 190 pounds, performed sensationally when he played throughout the year, completing 78 percent of his 105 attempts for 944 yards, eight touchdowns and only one interception. He also ran for 282 yards and two scores.

Fisch’s last two starting quarterbacks – Will Rogers (2024) and Noah Fifita (2023) were top-30 passers in efficiency under him. Williams has two high-end offensive weapons around him this season: running back Jonah Coleman and receiver Denzel Boston.

Demond Williams Jr. took over as the starter in the final two games last season at Washington under head coach Jedd Fisch. (Troy Wayrynen / Imagn Images)4. Jackson Arnold, Auburn

The Athletic QB Tiers Ranking: No. 35, Tier 4

Hugh Freeze didn’t let Oklahoma’s monumental offensive struggles with Arnold as their starting quarterback last season deter him from going hard after him in the transfer portal back in December.

“Truthfully it comes back to what I saw out of him in high school. I just thought he was elite,” Freeze said on David Pollack’s See Ball Get Ball podcast this week. “I just think it was very difficult circumstances which all of us walk through at times. He had three offensive coordinators. All the receivers were injured. He lost some confidence.”

Freeze said having Cam Coleman to throw the ball to this spring restored some confidence for Arnold, a former five-star recruit in the Class of 2023. The 6-1, 211-pound junior is walking into a pretty good situation at Auburn. He’s gifted enough as a runner (444 rushing yards, 3 TDs in 2024) and passer (62.6 percent completion percentage, 1,421 yards, 12 TDs, 3 INTs in 2024) to be a Heisman contender this year if everything falls into place.

5. Austin Simmons, Ole Miss

The Athletic QB Tiers Ranking: No. 37, Tier 4

Rebels fans got a glimpse of what life without Jaxson Dart might look like last year when Simmons came off the bench and led the Rebels to a touchdown in an upset victory over Georgia. He’s still just a 19-year-old sophomore, but Lane Kiffin is ready to hand the native Floridian the keys to Ole Miss’ offense.

Dart led all FBS passers in efficiency last season and finished 12th in 2023. Kiffin’s first QB at Ole Miss, Matt Corrall, finished ninth in passing efficiency in 2020 and 25th in 2021. The precedent to be one of the best in college football under Kiffin is there for Simmons.

6. Dylan Raiola, Nebraska

The Athletic QB Tiers Ranking: No. 40, Tier 4

There was only one true freshman quarterback who threw for more yards than Bailey did last season. Yes, it was Raiola, who started all 13 games for the Cornhuskers and completed 67.1 percent of his 410 pass attempts for 2,819 yards, 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The 6-3, 230-pound former five-star recruit finished 40th among all quarterbacks last season in efficiency.

The question going forward is whether he and Matt Rhule will be able to lift Nebraska’s football program back to glory. The Cornhuskers finished 7-6 to earn their first bowl trip since 2016 last season. But Cornhuskers boosters aspire for much more.

7. Aidan Chiles, Michigan State

The Athletic QB Tiers Ranking: No. 44, Tier 4

Much like Demond Williams, Chiles followed his head coach from the school he signed with (Oregon State) to a new spot in the Big Ten last season. The Spartans sputtered to a 5-7 record with the 6-3, 217-pound former four-star recruit starting all 12 games. Still, Chiles provided some positive glimpses after struggling through the first half of the season.

In all, he completed 59.4 percent of his 323 pass attempts for 2,415 yards, 13 touchdowns and ran for 225 yards and three scores. Only two of his 11 interceptions came over the final five games of the season.

Aidan Chiles showed some promising glimpses last year after struggling for the first half of the season. (Nick King / USA TODAY NETWORK)8. CJ Carr, Notre Dame

The Athletic QB Tiers Ranking: No. 49, Tier 4

The grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr is set to take over as the Irish’s starting quarterback with Riley Leonard off to the NFL. The former top-100 recruit, who redshirted last season, could very well be an upgrade as a passer over Leonard, who finished 51st in passing efficiency.

Carr should also bring some much-needed stability to the position over the next few seasons. Counting this fall, Notre Dame has had a new starting quarterback in each of the last five seasons. Carr (6-3, 210) was an Elite 11 finalist and the sixth-best QB prospect in the 2024 cycle behind Sayin, Florida’s DJ Lagway, Raiola, South Carolina’s Air Noland and Mississippi State’s Luke Kromenhoek.

9. Bryce Underwood, Michigan

The Athletic QB Tiers Ranking: No. 50, Tier 4

Rick Leach, Chad Henne and Tate Forcier are the three Wolverine quarterbacks who started Day 1 as freshmen. Sherrone Moore still hasn’t formally announced Underwood will start over Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene, but considering the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2025 cycle signed an NIL deal north of $10 million, it’s unlikely Underwood will be waiting long if at all.

As a four-year starter at Belleville High School – just down the road from Ann Arbor – Underwood led his team to a 50-4 record, won two state championships and totaled 12,919 all-purpose yards and 179 touchdowns. He was Gatorade’s National Player of the Year as a junior.

10. Anthony Colandrea, UNLV

The Athletic QB Tiers Ranking: No. 69, Tier 5

There are only two FBS quarterbacks from the 2023 recruiting cycle who have started more games and played more snaps than Colandrea in his first two years of college ball: Arkansas State’s Jaylen Raynor and FIU’s Keyone Jenkins.

Colandrea, though, played previously at the Power 4 level (Virginia) and is going to play for a coach who has developed some pretty good quarterbacks. Dan Mullen’s list includes Alex Smith (Utah), Tim Tebow (Florida), Dak Prescott (Mississippi State) and Kyle Trask (Florida).

Colandrea, a 6-foot, 205-pound former three-star recruit from St. Petersburg, Fla., has completed 62.6 percent of his passes for 26 touchdowns and 4,093 yards and run for 502 yards and two touchdowns over his first 19 college games. UNLV won 11 games in 2024, nine games in 2023 and signed 42 transfers this offseason.

(Top photo of Dylan Raiola: Joseph Maiorana / Imagn Image)