Key matchup: TE Dalton Kincaid vs. Broncos linebackers
From weeks 11 to 17 (the opposing Kansas City Chiefs rested starters in Week 18), the Broncos had a defensive drop-off, going from elite to very good. They still were a very disruptive defense in that span, leading the league in negative play rate (37.2 percent), but dropped to 10th in success rate (57.1 percent), 23rd in EPA per dropback (-0.13) and 21st in points per drive (2.25). Notably, they struggled against mobile quarterbacks. Marcus Mariota, Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love, even though he doesn’t run as much, had success extending plays and scrambling against the Broncos.
Aside from Josh Allen’s ability to create off-script plays, there are a few ways the Bills offense matches up favorably against the Broncos defense. The Broncos’ defense specializes in taking away outside receivers with cornerbacks Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss, and of course, that will be an issue for the Bills, but they don’t rely on their outside receivers winning at a high rate to move the ball. The Bills rank fifth in receiving yards to tight ends and running backs.
In the playoff matchup with the Broncos last season, the Bills were able to run for 210 yards on a defense that ranked first in success rate that year. More importantly, they took advantage of the Broncos’ linebackers by targeting running backs and tight ends (seven catches for 101 yards). Dalton Kincaid has missed several games this season with injuries, but he’s improved as a player and should be a major part of the Bills’ game plan.
The Broncos have given up the ninth-most yards to tight ends this season and the eighth-highest average yards per reception to tight ends (10.7). They major in man coverage, but their linebackers don’t play man coverage at a high level. Dre Greenlaw should help, but he’s a better zone defender. Strong safety Talanoa Hufanga is elite in so many areas but weak in man coverage as well.
The Bills should have a similar game plan to last year’s playoff game and target Kincaid. We could even see running back Ty Johnson run some routes against the linebackers.