With the NRL season kicking off at the end of next month, it’s time to dust off the crystal Steeden to predict who will and who won’t be smiling in 2026.
By modern standards, there has not been massive upheaval in the off-season around the 17 clubs with very few off-field atrocities, requests for a contract release or coach speculation swirling around.
Even on the injury front, most clubs have close to a clean bill of health even though there was a heavy representative schedule at the end of last season with a Kangaroo Tour of the UK running parallel to the Pacific Championships.
Here are 17 random predictions randomly randomised for the season ahead.
They are all guaranteed* to come true.
* – Not a guarantee.
The kick-off rule will be much ado about nothing. If it actually is installed, this will be one of those rules that lasts a season before being consigned to the dustbin.
Titans will take out the wooden spoon. Sorry, long-suffering Gold Coast fans but there is little to nothing on the roster to inspire any confidence that this team can win any more than a handful of games. In the immortal words of Principal Skinner, prove me wrong children.
NRL’s new rule to stop public comment about players will be a dud. There are that many ex-players on the rugby league media landscape who also hold active roles at clubs or as player agents, there is no way that they will be able to button their lip about prospective recruits.
Raiders will only just make the playoffs. Replacing Jamal Fogarty with a rookie halfback in Ethan Sanders is a long-term move by Canberra and it may indeed turn out to be prudent. But it’s a one step back to take two steps forward kind of strategy. After wowing everyone to claim the minor premiership last season, they will be qualifying for the finals this time around by a slender margin.
Reece Walsh will be the Maroons’ fullback. For the Queenslanders to be able to defend the State of Origin shield, they need the Broncos star back in the No.1 jersey and he should be after dethroning Dylan Edwards for the Kangaroos gig. This means Kalyn Ponga is relegated to a bench role and Ben Hunt has played his last Origin for the Maroons.
Reece Walsh breaks away from the defence. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Queensland will reign supreme again. Both coaches will bow out of Origin – Billy Slater on a winning note before launching a club career and Laurie Daley with another close but no cigar series.
Craig Bellamy will finally, finally call it quits. This is probably the least likely to come to fruition but the coach who cannot retire could decide the time is now right whether the Storm go one step further to win the premiership after two straight grand final losses or even if they bomb out.
Panthers to win the whole thing. They’ve had their gap year where everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. The form they showed in the second half of 2025 once they had their stars back in alignment is ominous for this season. If Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Dylan Edwards stay on the park, it’ll be five trophies in six years for Penrith.
Todd Payten will be the next coach to ‘part ways’ with a club. He’s on thin ice at the Cowboys and that doesn’t usually last long in the tropics. North Queensland have been major disappointments pretty much ever since he took them to the 2023 preliminary final and there haven’t been any major changes in the off-season which indicate they will improve too much on last year’s 12th placing.
Cowboys coach Todd Payten. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
There will be a new coach at Manly next year. Whether he lasts the full season or gets a mid-season tap, Anthony Seibold is the other coach who needs to be looking over his shoulder. The Sea Eagles are set to enter a rebuilding phase after Daly Cherry-Evans’ departure on top of doubts over the effectiveness of Tom and Jake Trbojevic.
DCE fails to take Roosters over the top. There are similarities to Cooper Cronk’s arrival at the club in 2018 but Cherry-Evans’ switch from Manly has the potential to be much more disruptive. Hugo Savala was a revelation last season and all it takes is for his manager to drop a hint that his client is unhappy with whatever role he’s relegated to this year and the kerfuffle over DCE taking his spot in the halves will turn into a full-blown megadrama, the kind that keeps the NRL 24/7 news cycle rattling along.
Warriors will be chasing their tails. They will be off to a slow start with Luke Metcalf out for the first month with his knee injury but as the season wears on, they should be able to build momentum so that they enter the finals like Penrith last year as the dark horse that nobody wants to face. But they need to ace the Origin period where most of the top teams will be more heavily affected by the representative workload.
Katoa claims Dally M. In the tradition of halfbacks from not-so-great teams winning the top individual awards, Isaiya Katoa is well placed to take out the Dally M Medal in 2026. He was third in the voting last year and with the Dolphins’ chances resting on his shoulders, he will be the focal point for Kristian Woolf’s team and the Dally M judges.
Dolphins break through. Although they seem to be inching closer to a maiden finals appearance, the Redcliffe club will just miss out again. They are still a player or two away from being a true contender and they need better injury luck because their depth is not quite as strong as the big guns. Warriors, Sharks, Raiders and Roosters appear to be the most likely finals teams from last year who will fail to qualify this time around.
Mark Nawaqanitawase scores a try. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Marquee Mark will be back. This won’t be the last season Mark Nawaqanitawase spends at the Roosters. He will again be an athletic strike weapon on the right wing and whether it’s from 2028 or ‘29 onwards, don’t be surprised if he agrees to a return deal with the club with a Japan top-up in the off-season before he embarks on his second stint with the Wallabies.
Galvin good but not great: The Bulldogs’ plan to make Lachie Galvin into a halfback fails to reach any great heights. They eventually try to convert him or Matt Burton into a ball-playing lock and shuffle the roster around to bring in a top-line halfback or put their faith in former NSW under 19 playmaker Mitchell Woods.
Fifita falls flat at Bunnies: He will probably do enough to ensure he is retained for the second year of his contract at South Sydney but it’s hard to see him getting back to the kind of form which made him one of the first forwards selected for the Maroons a few years back.
Dan the man at Dragons: Daniel Atkinson will prove to be the buy of the year. The former Sharks playmaker will give St George Illawarra the halfback that they have been craving ever since Ben Hunt successfully agitated his way out the door a couple of off-seasons ago. However, the team will still be on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture until Keaon Koloamatangi arrives next year and they can add a little more strikepower out wide.
Sharks miss Ronaldo more than you’d think. As their only genuine speedster out wide, Cronulla will miss the try-scoring exploits that Ronaldo Mulitalo brings on the wing in what is looking like a slightly stale roster that is getting close to a major revamp if they fall short again this year.
Pezet hits the spot at Parra. After several years of being touted as the next big thing at Melbourne despite struggling for game time, Jonah Pezet shines at the Eels, running sidesaddle to Mitchell Moses in his one-season stopover before continuing further north to Brisbane.
Newcastle’s defence improves under Holbrook: Well, it can’t be much worse, surely. Dylan Brown will be a decent acquisition but the problem will be that he won’t necessarily be delivering superstar value to go along with his decade-long contract.
Tigers go three consecutive weeks without a boardroom blow-up. OK, this is the most outlandish prediction of them all so it’s going in last. If the Wests Tigers joint venture can ever get its act together, it could be a juggernaut a la the Panthers. But while factionalism rules over commonsense, Benji Marshall will be doing well to get them in contention for the finals. They will cause a few boilovers against top teams but also lose enough matches to teams that they should beat and end up among the also-rans once again.