Aerial drone view of The Ponds in the North West of Sydney, NSW Australia on a sunny morning showing the densely packed homes and housing density

Homebuyers and those looking to lock in rates refinancing may have missed their window for lower rates with 53 lenders hiking since the last RBA board meeting.

Market odds of a February rate rise have now doubled days before the RBA meets, as 54 banks hike rates – some twice – putting more pressure on struggling Aussies.

National Australia Bank on Friday became the latest to lift its fixed rates – by up to 0.40 percentage points – the second time it has done so within six weeks as the ASX rate tracker showed a massive market swing to a 60 per cent expectation the cash rate will be raised to 3.85 per cent by the Reserve Bank.

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ASX RBA rate tracker has swung to a 60pc expectation of a hike off employment data. Source: Canstar.com.au

NAB’s lowest fixed rate changes on Friday. Source: Canstar.com.au

Shockingly, two lenders have started the ball rolling with the first variable interest rate rises of the year, while in a mass repricing at least 54 have hiked fixed home loan rates since the last RBA decision, according to Canstar data – with just 12 lenders offering a fixed rate below 5 per cent, down from 38 two months ago.

This follows fixed rate hikes from CBA last Thursday when it predicted jobs data and inflation would force the Reserve Bank’s hand before the end of summer – with all four big banks now on the move and ANZ offering the lowest fixed rate of the majors at 5.44 per cent for a two-year term.

Heritage Bank and People’s Choice were the lenders who increased variables by what amounts to half a rate rise by the Reserve Bank – significant for its timing so close to the February monetary policy meeting. That saw six owner-occupier and investor variable rates increase by an average of 0.1 points.

Aerial view Nerang River Housing estate (Isle of Capri) with Surfers Paradise and Pacific Ocean

If the RBA increases the cash rate target this year it will be the first time it will have done so since November 7, 2023.

Canstar.com.au data insights manager Sally Tindall said “when the RBA Governor says a cash rate hike is a live option, banks take notice, and so it’s no surprise to see 54 of the lenders on Canstar have hiked at least one fixed rate since the last RBA board meeting, including all of the majors.”

The last time RBA Governor Michele Bullock agreed to hike rates was on November 7, 2023 by 25 basis points (to 4.35 per cent) – due to the failure to contain inflation which she considered “still too high” when it was expected to be around 3.5 per cent by the end of 2024.

A lot will hinge on next week’s December inflation data (released January 28), with the current inflation rate dropping to 3.4 per cent in November from 3.8 per cent the previous month but still above the RBA’s 2-3 per cent target. The largest contributor was housing which rose 5.2 per cent annually – at a time the RBA is trying to cool the market.

Ms Tindall said the bottom line is Australia still has an inflation problem “four long years into this battle”. “A rate hike in 2026 is not a foregone conclusion, but this week’s ABS Labour Force data certainly isn’t standing in the central bank’s way,” she said.

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Average rates variable vs 2-year fixed. Source: Canstar.com.au

“While the RBA goes to great lengths to remind us there’s no one dataset or number its decision-making rests upon, next Wednesday’s quarterly inflation results are critical to the equation,” she said.

“If inflation makes a concrete move in the right direction, it’s likely to be enough to ward off a hike at the first meeting of 2026. If it shows it’s treading water, then some tough conversations will be had around that boardroom table and we could well see a hike.”

Commonwealth Bank went hardest on fixed rates on January 15, smashing its three-year fixed rate up 70 basis points to 6.04 per cent – which amounted to over $200 extra per month for some borrowers. Macquarie Bank also lifted rates 0.25 per cent across all fixed terms – its second hike in six weeks.

“Fixed rates starting with a ‘4’ now have a target on their backs. Just 12 lenders are offering at least one rate under 5 per cent, down from over 40 just three months ago,” Ms Tindall said.

“This is a pre-emptive move by the banks to counter a higher cash rate in 2026. This is yet another signal that borrowers need to start getting prepared.”

CBA and NAB are both predicting a 0.25 per cent rate rise on February 3, Citi economists expect two hikes this year.

RBA’s target inflation band is 2-3 per cent. Source: RBA

Ms Tindall said for owner-occupiers on a variable rate, the average is 5.52 per cent – but borrowers with a decent track record should be aiming at or below a 5.25 per cent rate – with over 40 lenders offering at least one variable rate under that mark right now.

“Now is the time to audit your current home loan and challenge your lender for a better rate, as the disparity between market leaders and laggards is widening, and loyalty rarely pays,” Ms Tindall said.

Number of lenders with at least one fixed rate under 5pc. Source: Canstar.com.au.

Ms Tindall said even though the window is closing, borrowers should not cut corners in their due diligence.

“Fixed rates come with plenty of extra rules and caveats, such as caps on extra repayments, often no access to an offset account and break fees if you want to get out early. These are all things you’ll need to weigh up before you lock in.”

According to Canstar calculations, just one 0.25 percentage point interest rate hike would see a typical $600,000 mortgage repayment jump by $90 a month, while a $750,000 loan would increase by $112, and $1 million mortgages would face an extra $150 a month in costs.

Ms Tindall urged borrowers to stress-test their household budgets against another potential increase to ensure their rainy-day buffer is more than just a drop in the bucket.

EXCLUSIVE: FULL LIST OF LENDERS THAT HIKED:
(Fixed rates December 10, 2025 to January 23, 2026)

ANZ

Aussie

Australian Military Bank

Australian Mutual Bank

Auswide Bank

Bank Australia

Bank First

Bank of China

Bank of Melbourne

BankSA

BCU Bank

Bendigo Bank

BOQ

Commonwealth Bank

Community First Bank

Easy Street Fin Services

Firefighters Mutual Bank

Firstmac

G&C Mutual Bank

Geelong Bank

Great Southern Bank

Health Professionals Bank

Heritage Bank

Homestar Finance

Horizon Bank

HSBC

Hume Bank

Illawarra Credit Union

IMB

ING

loans.com.au

Macquarie Bank

ME

MyState Bank

NAB

P&N Bank

Pacific Mortgage Group

People’s Choice

Police Bank

Police Credit Union

Qudos Bank

Queensland Country Bank

RACQ Bank

St George Bank

Summerland Bank

Suncorp Bank

Teachers Mutual Bank

The Mutual Bank

Ubank

UniBank

Unity Bank

Up

Westpac

(Source: Canstar.com.au – 21/01/2026)

(Based on owner occupier and investment loans on Canstar’s database, available for any loan amount and LVR).

(Variable rates January 12 to 18, 2026)

Heritage Bank

People’s Choice

(Source: Canstar.com.au: Based on owner-occupier and investment loans available for $600,000, 80% LVR and principal & interest and/or interest-only payments in Canstar’s database. Excludes introductory and first homebuyer only home loans).