When you buy shares in a company, it’s worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. One great example is Aflac Incorporated (NYSE:AFL) which saw its share price drive 137% higher over five years. The last week saw the share price soften some 2.2%.
So let’s assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they’ve moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During five years of share price growth, Aflac achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 4.5% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 19% average annual increase in the share price. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. And that’s hardly shocking given the track record of growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
NYSE:AFL Earnings Per Share Growth January 24th 2026
We know that Aflac has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Aflac, it has a TSR of 166% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
Aflac shareholders gained a total return of 4.3% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 22% a year, over half a decade) look better. It’s quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. If you would like to research Aflac in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.
Of course Aflac may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.