Daily Apple Inc
Rate cut odds for September jumped from 40% to 75.5% following the report. Even strong earnings from Apple ($94.04B revenue, +2.6% y/y) and Amazon weren’t enough to offset the bearish shift—both stocks declined as macro risk took over.
Fed Policy Now in Focus as Labor Data Weakens
The weak jobs report added weight to prior warnings from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said private payroll growth was nearing stall speed. He was one of two dissenters at July’s FOMC meeting, favoring a cut. Following the report, several firms—including Goldman Sachs and UBS—moved their base case for a rate cut to September.
Tariff Uncertainty Adds to Corporate Pressure
Rising tariffs continue to complicate the outlook. Executives across manufacturing sectors cite a lack of clarity on future input costs, leading to cautious hiring and capex decisions. Ford expects a $2B tariff hit in 2025. Apple reported $800M in Q2 tariff-related costs and expects another $1.1B in Q3.
In the public sector, recent federal workforce reductions have eliminated 84,000 jobs since January, the largest non-recessionary cut in decades, adding further weight to the slowing jobs trend.