DUBLIN– Global aircraft lessor Avolon has forecast a potential new commercial aircraft program launch in 2027, as manufacturers respond to sustained airline profitability and long-term capacity shortages. Airlines are expected to benefit from next-generation aircraft as demand continues to outpace supply.
The outlook forms part of Avolon’s 2026 Up Next report, which projects global airline industry profits reaching $41 billion next year. Continued economic growth, lower fuel prices, and strong international demand are driving renewed confidence across the aviation sector.
Photo: Boeing
New Aircraft Programs in 2027
Avolon expects 2027 to be a realistic window for manufacturers to formally launch a new aircraft program.
The lessor identified three frontrunners, including Airbus’s proposed A220-500 and A350-2000, alongside Boeing’s conceptual 777-10X.
The report stated that 2026 remains too early for a launch due to supply chain constraints and certification pressures. However, mounting market gaps in both the single-aisle and widebody segments are increasing pressure on manufacturers to act.
Avolon also noted that Boeing’s 737-10 continues to face competitive pressure from the A321neo, which has outsold its rival by a wide margin over recent years.
Photo: Airbus
Aircraft Supply Shortage
The aviation industry continues to face a structural undersupply of aircraft, limiting airlines’ ability to fully capture demand growth.
Order backlogs at Airbus and Boeing now extend beyond 11 years, effectively selling out production capacity well into the next decade.
This imbalance is supporting higher lease rates and strengthening residual values for in-demand aircraft types. Avolon highlighted that lessor-held delivery slots have become increasingly strategic for airlines with limited direct access to manufacturers.
Around $120 billion worth of new aircraft deliveries are expected in 2026, representing a 20 percent increase year-on-year.
Lessors are projected to finance nearly half of the global fleet, reinforcing their growing influence.
Photo: Avolon
Global Growth Markets
Avolon identified India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia as the primary drivers of the next aviation growth cycle.
The three markets collectively hold an order backlog exceeding 3,000 aircraft, more than double their current in-service fleets.
Approximately 900 aircraft are scheduled for delivery to these regions over the next three years. International markets already accounted for 85 percent of global capacity growth in 2025 and are expected to dominate again in 2026.
The report also highlighted China’s near-term requirement for 1,000 additional aircraft, though delivery timelines remain constrained by production limitations.
Photo: Boeing
Bottom Line
Avolon’s outlook underscores an industry entering a prolonged capacity-constrained phase despite strong financial performance.
With profits forecast at $41 billion in 2026 and aircraft backlogs stretching beyond a decade, pressure is building for manufacturers to launch new programs by 2027.
Well-capitalized lessors are positioned to benefit as airlines compete for scarce next-generation aircraft.
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