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The Baltimore Orioles knew they were taking on some risk when they signed Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year deal last offseason. Now that the veteran right-hander is officially back on the open market—and publicly committed to staying in Major League Baseball—the question isn’t whether Sugano will pitch again in the majors. It’s whether Baltimore still makes sense as his next stop.
According to a report out of Yahoo Japan, Sugano is “not considering” a return to Nippon Professional Baseball and is waiting on offers after completing his first MLB season. While the report didn’t name specific teams, the implication is clear: Sugano wants to prove that his MLB chapter isn’t finished after one uneven year in Baltimore.
A Promising Start That Revealed the Limits
Baltimore saw the best version of Sugano early. Through his first dozen outings, he posted a 3.04 ERA and looked like a stabilizing presence in a rotation that needed innings more than dominance. His trademark command showed up immediately. Even as hitters adjusted, he continued to limit walks at an elite level, finishing the season with a 5.3% walk rate that ranked among the best in baseball.
The problem was everything that followed.
Sugano’s inability to miss bats at the MLB level caught up to him in a hurry. As reported by Charlie Wright of MLB Trade Rumors, his 15.7% strikeout rate landed in the sixth percentile, and his swinging-strike rate ranked near the bottom among pitchers who cleared 150 innings. Too many balls were put in play, and too many of them were hit hard. He surrendered 33 home runs—third-most in the league—thanks to a dangerous mix of an elevated fly-ball rate and an 11.8% barrel rate.
According to Fangraphs, the underlying metrics suggested the slide was coming. His xFIP and SIERA both hovered in the mid-4.00s even during his strong start, signaling that regression wasn’t a fluke—it was inevitable. For a pitcher who thrives on precision rather than power, the margin for error in MLB proved razor-thin.
Why the Orioles Still Make Sense
Context still matters. Sugano was making the transition at age 35, facing deeper lineups and smaller parks than he’d ever dealt with in Japan. Just one year earlier, he had capped off a dominant NPB career with a 15-3 record and a sparkling 1.67 ERA, walking just 2.6% of hitters. That pitcher didn’t simply disappear overnight.
What Sugano brings remains unique. He works with a six-pitch arsenal built around a splitter and sweeper, supplemented by a sinker and cutter he throws with real confidence. His four-seam fastball averaged just 92.7 mph last season, and his Stuff+ graded out at a modest 92, but his approach has never been about overpowering hitters. It’s about sequencing, deception, and limiting self-inflicted damage.
That’s where the Orioles have to decide whether a reunion makes sense. Baltimore doesn’t need Sugano to be an ace. They need stability, depth, and innings—especially as they continue to balance a competitive window with young arms still finding their footing.
If Sugano is willing to return on a shorter, incentive-heavy deal, the Orioles could view him as a known quantity rather than a gamble. They’ve already seen both extremes of his MLB profile. They know the risks. They also know the floor.
Sugano staying in MLB feels inevitable. Whether that story continues in Baltimore now depends on how much faith the Orioles still have in a pitcher whose first season answered some questions—and raised a few uncomfortable ones, too.
Alvin Garcia Born in Puerto Rico, Alvin Garcia is a sports writer for Heavy.com who focuses on MLB. His work has appeared on FanSided, LWOS, NewsBreak, Athlon Sports, and Yardbarker, covering mostly baseball. More about Alvin Garcia
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