The UFC featherweight title is on the line again as Alexander Volkanovski faces Diego Lopes in a rematch to headline UFC 325. Volk outclassed Lopes in their first meeting, but the Brazilian has been surging in popularity and power ever since. Alongside a high-stakes co-main between Benoit Saint-Denis and Dan Hooker, this card keeps the Paramount era rolling.

As always, I’ve run the data through the model, and while we’re still early in the season, we’ve already started strong with a 6-2 opening week.

Want more? You can catch the full episode of First Strike, now available on YouTube and anywhere you get your podcasts. I joined Dave Ross along with special guest Reed Kuhn to break down all the angles.

Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy

Let’s kick things off with a striker’s delight.

Rafael Fiziev bounced back last summer with a decision win over Ignacio Bahamondes, snapping a rough 3-fight skid. He’s 7-4 in the UFC overall and has faced some of the toughest names in the division, including two bouts with interim champ Justin Gaethje. Now he’s hoping to build a new streak here.

Across from him, Mauricio Ruffy is coming off his first UFC loss — a submission defeat to Benoit Saint-Denis back in September. He’s still a promising 3-1 in the promotion and carries a solid 4-inch reach advantage in this one.

From a style standpoint, this has war potential. But don’t let the chaos fool you, these are both sharp strikers:

Fiziev lands 4.77 sig. strikes/min with a neutral differential (0.00)

Ruffy lands fewer at 3.39/min, but with more pop. He’s recorded 3 knockdowns in just 4 UFC bouts

Ruffy also boasts a clean 0 knockdowns absorbed, while Fiziev has been dropped twice

Neither man plays much defense, but both can crack.

If by some chance there’s some wrestling in the match, it would likely be Fiziev driving that narrative:

Fiziev has 8 takedowns in the UFC at a sharp 73% accuracy

He also logs a 45% control rate in clinch and ground time

Ruffy showed some vulnerability on the mat last time out, getting taken down 3 times (on 10 attempts) by Saint-Denis

That said, Ruffy’s overall 81% takedown defense is strong — but it’s inflated by the BSD fight alone (10 of 16 total attempts faced)

So what does the model say?

It gives the slightest of leans to Fiziev, but it’s essentially a 50/50 fight. The model isn’t spotting a clear edge here, and the books agree. We’ve already seen a flip of the favorite. Fiziev went from -120 to +105 quickly.

No play here unfortunately. Not every close fight has to be bet, and the model doesn’t force it. Sometimes the best edge is knowing when to stay out.

Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis

If you like chaos, this one’s for you.

Dan Hooker is back just a couple months after a submission loss to Arman Tsarukyan. He’s been through wars, and at 36 years old, you have to wonder how his body handles another quick turnaround. His style has always been all-action, wins and losses alike, and he’s rarely in a boring fight. All gas, no brakes.

On the other side, Benoit Saint-Denis is one of the most dangerous rising finishers in the sport. Nicknamed “The God of War,” he has 19 professional fights and only one has gone the distance. He’s riding a 3-fight win streak, including a devastating 16-second KO of Beneil Dariush.

From a stat lens:

BSD has an impressive 71% xR%. Makes sense when you’re dominating fights and finishing them

Hooker’s xR% is 57%, not terrible, but not elite. He’s very likely to lose early rounds before turning things around

Both are high-volume strikers:

Hooker lands 4.89 sig. strikes/min with a +0.16 differential

BSD lands 5.07/min with a much stronger +0.85 differential

When it comes to power:

Hooker has scored 9 knockdowns in his UFC career

BSD has 5 knockdowns and the higher differential suggests he’s more efficient with his shots

Now let’s dig into the grappling:

BSD spends only 42% of his time at distance, so he’s looking to mix it up

He has 22 takedowns in the UFC (though accuracy is in the 30s)

His control rate sits at a dominant 79%, and he logs 46% of fight time in control positions

Hooker isn’t bad here either though. 58% control rate, 77% takedown defense

The model loves BSD here. His win probability comes in at 78.09%, which is slightly above his current implied odds of -330 (76%). But because this card is light on volume for us, we’re skipping parlays. So props are where we’ll look.

The best angle might be total rounds:

Fight total sits at 1.5 rounds, with under +145

BSD to win inside the distance is -125, which might be the safer route

Alternate props like under 2.5 could be a sweet spot to monitor as the week rolls on as well

Saint-Denis is making a serious case for a title shot if he delivers again here. All roads may soon lead through The God of War. Seek & Destroy.

Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2

The Paramount era rolls on with a featherweight title rematch.

Alexander Volkanovski returns to defend his belt for the first time since reclaiming it with a clear-cut unanimous decision over Diego Lopes back in April of 2025. Now, just nine months later, we run it back.

This time, Lopes enters with some extra momentum, scoring a knockout win over Jean Silva in September. While Volk has been resting, resetting, and recharging. At 37 years old, that rest might be the smartest tool in his championship toolbox.

Lopes is hungry, aggressive, and durable. But that first fight told a fairly straightforward story. Volk landed 158 significant strikes, more than double Lopes’ output. Most judges gave Lopes just one round.

And yet, this is MMA. Strange rematches happen. Styles evolve. And fighters with nothing to lose sometimes find something extra.

Let’s look at the metrics:

xR%:

Volkanovski: 78%

Lopes: 53% (his war-ready style often costs him rounds)

Significant Strikes:

Volkanovski: 6.18 landed per minute with a +2.82 differential

Lopes: 4.36 per minute, but a -0.41 differential. Absorbing 4.77/min

Durability & Power:

Lopes has never been finished or knocked down in the UFC

Volk has been knocked down 4 times and finished twice, but context matters: one came at lightweight against Makhachev and the second against KO king, Ilia Topuria.

Defense:

Volkanovski boasts a 67% head strike defense

Lopes tends to eat a few to land one (51%)

Grappling and clinch work could matter again:

Volk attempts 2.17 takedowns per 5 minutes

He’s landed 31 in the UFC (34% accuracy)

In their first fight, he attempted 11 and landed just one

Lopes has a sturdy 75% takedown defense

Control metrics:

Volkanovski: 80% control rate in clinch/ground positions

Lopes: 47% control rate

The model was all over Volk the first time and even with the rematch angle, it still favors the champ. He scores a 78.86% win probability, while his odds this week sit between -145 and -155 (implied probability ~59%).

So we’re still finding value.

The concern, and it’s a fair one, is age. The boogeyman that every athlete fears and every fan fears for them. We just saw Derrick Lewis look every bit of 41 in the cage last week. That drop-off hits hard, and it hits fast in this sport. But Volk is a different athlete. He’s methodical. Disciplined. And frankly, he hasn’t shown any obvious signs of decline against other featherweights.

For a fighter we once spoke of as the greatest featherweight of all time, -145 is a great price.

We’re riding with the champ one more time.

Make sure to subscribe to First Strike on YouTube and your favorite podcast platform to stay up to date every week. You can follow me on X @TheRobbeo, and Dave Ross @drosssports. Respect the data and let’s cash.

Model Prediction | Win Prob.%

Yizha | 64.38%

Billy Elekana | 58.29%

Quillan Salkilld | 73.27%

Rafael Fiziev | 53.75%

Benoit Saint-Denis | 78.09%

Alexander Volkanovski | 78.86%

*in BOLD means the model says GO.