S Rajesh

CloseS Rajesh is ESPNcricinfo’s stats editor in Bangalore. He did an MBA in marketing, and then worked for a year in advertising, before deciding to chuck it in favour of a job which would combine the pleasures of watching cricket and writing about it. The intense office cricket matches were an added bonus.

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Jan 29, 2026, 07:50 PM

With the last round of matches on at the Under-19 World Cup over the next few days, there’s plenty at stake as teams scramble to finish among the top two in their groups. Australia have already qualified from group 1, while England are favourites to do the same from group 2, but here is how the scenarios look for all the teams in contention.

Group 2

With a spotless 3-0 record – including wins against Pakistan and Zimbabwe carried forward from group C – England are clear favourites to finish among the top two in the group. Their last game, on Friday, is against New Zealand, who have struggled in this tournament, losing comprehensively – by 141 balls to spare against India, and with 197 balls remaining against Pakistan. If England beat New Zealand, they’ll finish on eight points and qualify for the semi-finals.

Of much more interest is the last game of the Super Sixes, between India and Pakistan on Sunday. If England win on Friday, only one out of India or Pakistan will make it to the last four. India are better placed with six points and a net run rate of 3.337, compared to Pakistan’s four and 1.484, but Pakistan can flip it around with a big win on Sunday.

The NRR gulf looks huge, but it isn’t as large as it appears to be: if Pakistan bat first and score 300, they’ll need to win by 85 runs to surpass India; if they bowl first and restrict India to 200, they’ll need to reach the target in around 31.5 overs. If the target is 251, they’ll need to get there in about 33.2 overs.

Ali Raza picked up three wickets ICC/Getty Images

These are fairly challenging targets, but it’s worth remembering that the last time the two teams played, in the final of the Asia Cup a month ago, Pakistan won by 191 runs.

Can India and Pakistan both qualify? That’s not ruled out yet, but for that to happen, New Zealand will need to beat England. Then, if Pakistan beat India, three teams will finish on six points, with NRR deciding the top two. However, on current form, it looks quite unlikely that England will drop two points against New Zealand.

Group 1

With Australia already topping the group – and hence certain to play the team that finishes second in group 2 in the semi-finals – there’s only one place up for grabs, with three teams fighting for that spot: Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and West Indies are all on four points. West Indies have played their four matches, and given that their NRR of -0.421 is the worst among the three, they’ll have to hope that both Sri Lanka and Afghanistan lose by big enough margins to take their NRR below West Indies’.

If Sri Lanka and Afghanistan both win, Afghanistan will almost certainly finish second as their NRR is well ahead of Sri Lanka’s. Even if Sri Lanka dismiss South Africa for 100 and chase it in 10 overs, Afghanistan will only need to score 250 and win by two runs to stay ahead. Sri Lanka’s only chance, therefore, is to beat South Africa and hope that Ireland pull off a huge upset against Afghanistan on Friday.