With the start of a new season approaching, there is plenty of renewed hope around the NRL from teams who missed the eight and didn’t play finals footy in 2025.

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If the current trend continues, we’ll see at least three new teams in the finals this season with three top eight teams from last year expected to drop out.

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According to the Fox Sports Lab, since 2000, the year following the NRL’s introduction of the top eight finals system, there have been 74 teams who dropped out of the eight the season after making it.

Inversely, that means there have been 74 teams who have improved into the eight after missing out on finals footy the year prior.

Three teams in, three teams out, a total of six teams affected. That’s been the case the past four seasons.

2021 was the last season only two teams missed out while you have to go all the way back to the 2010 season for the last time four teams dropped out of the eight.

Canberra surprised many by not only making the eight last year but collecting the minor premiership.

Unfortunately for fans of the Green Machine, your team has built a bad habit of being unable to put good seasons together.

As per the Fox Lab, the Raiders have missed the top eight on nine occasions following a top eight finish.

That’s the most of any team in the NRL with the Knights (7) next. The full list is below:

Teams who have missed the eight the year after making it (since 2000)

Raiders 9

Knights 7

Panthers 5

Bulldogs 5

Cowboys 5

Dragons 5

Eels 5

Sea Eagles 5

Sharks 5

Warriors 5

Broncos 4

Roosters 4

Rabbitohs 3

Titans 3

Storm 2

Tigers 2

WHO COULD DROP OUT?

WARRIORS

They’re a side that can be very hot-and-cold and if they even slip a little bit in what is expected to be another very competitive season, they could tumble out of the eight.

Even without their two best players in Luke Metcalf and Mitch Barnett for a chunk of last season, they still managed to make the eight, so they’re a team who have to be respected heavily when they’re on song.

ROOSTERS

On paper, the Roosters have one of the best sides in the competition.

Always used to contending, to finish 8th was a decent result for them given the player turnover and the amount of inexperienced youth that was blooded.

You’d think they only improve with Daly Cherry-Evans steering the side around but it’s not a sure bet.

While the Chooks should realistically be challenging for a comp, they only snuck in last season and remain in the ladder bubble for now.

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RAIDERS

The Fox Lab numbers paint a pretty damning picture.

Since 2000 and not including last season, Canberra have made the eight on 13 occasions but have failed to back it up nine times.

That’s a strike rate of just 30%.

With question marks at halfback after the departure of Jamal Fogarty, could the Raiders’ bubble burst?

Given their forward pack is outstanding and they have plenty of young talent, it’s unlikely they drop out of the eight.

WHO COULD IMPROVE INTO THE EIGHT?

DOLPHINS

Seem to be a consensus pick to earn their first ever top-eight finish.

They’ve gone desperately close in 2024 and 2025, still in the running until the final round.

With Herbie Farnworth, Max Plath and Tom Flegler returning from injury and their halfback Isaiya Katoa improving each year, there is plenty to like about Kristian Woolf’s men.

They’re built to not only make the postseason but to go on a deep finals run as well.

The Dolphins have been a popular pick to make the eight for the first time in 2026.Source: Getty Images

EELS

One of the form teams of the competition when the 2025 regular season ended.

Mitch Moses and Jonah Pezet make one of more talented halves duos in the comp and they are just one half of a dangerous spine that include the exciting Isaiah Iongi and promising hooker Ryley Smith.

Expectations are high at Kellyville and they should be. This is a very good football side.

COWBOYS

A hard team to catch but when their attack is on song, North Queensland are near impossible to stop.

Defence needs to improve for the Cowboys to be genuine top eight hopes, but Reed Mahoney will no doubt add a tougher edge.

Jaxon Purdue is one of the NRL’s most exciting young guns but with a move to the halves expected, his progression will be key to this team’s chances.

If he and superstar Tom Dearden click, watch out.