Dark horse to medal in men’s hockey at the Olympics? NHL players make their picks

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In the years between Sochi in 2014 and Milan in 2026, when NHL players did not participate in the Olympics, the men’s hockey tournament was a lot more wide open. Russia beat Germany in the gold-medal game in Pyeongchang in 2018, and Finland knocked off Russia in Beijing in 2022, with Slovakia earning the bronze medal.

Now that NHL players are back in the mix, the traditional powers have re-emerged as the heavy favorites — Canada, the United States, Sweden and, to a lesser extent, Finland. But anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament. Latvia gave Canada all it could handle in the quarterfinals in Sochi, with Kristers Gudlevskis making 55 saves in a 2-1 thriller. The Czech Republic won gold in Nagano in 1998, the first Olympics with NHLers. And the United States, despite its massive population advantage, hasn’t won a gold medal since the Miracle on Ice in 1980.

Hockey’s a little wacky, and there are enough NHLers on nearly every team to force the power countries to take every game seriously.

As part of The Athletic’s player poll this year, we asked 118 NHLers for their dark horse to medal in Milan. To ensure a “favorite” didn’t get picked as a “dark horse,” players weren’t allowed to select teams that participated in the 4 Nations Face-Off: Canada, the U.S., Sweden and Finland.

(Note: Not every player responded to every question.)

Unsurprisingly, the Czech Republic got the most love from our voters. The Czechs have 13 NHLers on their roster, including a solid trio of goaltenders in Anaheim’s Lukáš Dostál, Utah’s Karel Vejmelka and Philadelphia’s Dan Vladar. And goaltending is the great equalizer.

“Maaaybe the Czechs,” one player said. “Maybe. I could see them in a semi and getting that one game.”

“(The Czech Republic is) usually a pretty good team,” another player said. “That would be the one I could see ending up high.”

“They play a stingy game,” said another. “They can lock it down for a few games, and they have some guys who can score, too.”

“I’ll go with the Czechs,” one said. “I feel like they always have a lot of pride for those tournaments.”

The Anaheim Ducks, in particular, have produced believers in the Czechs, with Ducks captain Radko Gudas and Dostál on the roster.

“I’ve got to ride with my boys,” said one Ducks player. “With Dosty on the team, I’ve got to go with them for sure.”

“Czechia, obviously,” said another. “They have a really good goalie and a good defenseman (Radko Gudas). I think the Czechs and Switzerland. They were quite a load in the World Championships, and they’re really good on the international stage. Those two.”

“Because of Dostal,” said a former Ducks player. “I think (Dostál) is a phenomenal goalie and he can win you a game. … He’d win us some games that we didn’t deserve to.”

Beyond the goalies, the Czech Republic also has David Pastrňák, Martin Nečas and Tomáš Hertl, three premier offensive talents.

“I feel like they can be dangerous,” one player said. “In a tournament like that, if you get really good goaltending, it’s a massive thing. Anything can happen.”

“They have some really high-end forwards,” said another player. “They just seem to always play well as a team in those events.”

“Switzerland, even Germany,” said one player who ultimately picked the Czechs. “There’s some good teams out there, and when you go to the tournament, it’s all about the one game. Anything can happen. There’s for sure some dark horses.”

“Back in the day, I would have said the Czechs,” one Swiss voter said. “They probably have the most players, but don’t think they’re a dark horse necessarily.”

The Swiss, with Nico Hischier, Timo Meier and Roman Josi leading the way, also got some love from our voters.

“Switzerland’s had a good run at World Championships,” one educated voter said. “Back-to-back top-three medal finishes.”

“They were good at worlds — really good,” said an American who picked Switzerland. “We beat them in overtime to win. They were a good team, and they’ve got some more guys now because everybody’s available.”

“They just play structured,” said a Switzerland voter.

Germany, with Leon Draisaitl and Tim Stützle, earned some votes, too.

“They shut it down pretty good,” one voter said.

“They’re going to have to rely on their special teams, but I think they could surprise some people,” another voter said.

And clearly, a couple of our voters remembered Sochi, throwing their support behind Latvia.

“They have goalies who can steal games,” one player said.

That could be referring to Gudlevskis, who’s on the roster again this year — or to the Columbus Blue Jackets’ Elvis Merzlikins, or to the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Arturs Silovs, who led Latvia to bronze at the 2023 World Championship.

“They’re gonna surprise some people,” one player said.

Reporting for this story by Arpon Basu, Peter Baugh, Max Bultman, Thomas Drance, Matthew Fairburn, Jesse Granger, Joshua Kloke, Kevin Kurz, Mark Lazerus, Julian McKenzie, Vincent Z. Mercogliano, Aaron Portzline, Scott Powers, Michael Russo, Jeremy Rutherford, Fluto Shinzawa, Joe Smith, Eric Stephens and Josh Yohe.

Written by Mark Lazerus.