Why Expectations Are High
Playing on a modest one-year, $6.25 million deal last season, Harrison Bader posted career-high marks in OPS+ (117), hits (124), home runs (17) and RBI (54), and he logged a gaudy .305/.361/.463 line with 17 extra-base hits in 50 games after he was traded to the Phillies at the deadline. That was enough to earn him a two-year, $20.5 million contract from the Giants this time around in free agency.
A .220 expected batting average and a spike in his strikeout rate from 21.7 to 27.1 percent run counter to the idea that Bader had a career year, and moving to pitcher-friendly Oracle Park figures to rob him of any step forward he has taken in the power department. His +.057 differential between batting average and expected batting average was the second-highest gap among players with at least 200 plate appearances in 2025.