The usual suspects should be there at the business end but Super Rugby Pacific is sure to throw up twists and turns this season. One of those could be the rise of the Hurricanes.
History tells us the Crusaders, particularly after their swift resurrection to reclaim last year’s title, must be considered among the championship favourites.
It’s staggering, and certainly unhealthy for overall competition jeopardy, that it’s been a decade since anyone but the Crusaders or Blues claimed Super Rugby’s crown.
Leicester Fainga’anuku’s powerhouse return to the Crusaders strengthens their credentials for successive titles under Rob Penney but with the target firmly imprinted on their backs again, they could well be unseated.
New Zealand bookies mark the Chiefs as early title favourites which speaks to their strong, deep roster of established All Blacks such as Damian McKenzie, Tupou Vaa’i, Wallace Sititi, Samisoni Taukei’aho and Quinn Tupaea.
Kyren Taumoefolau is a lethal acquisition on the edge but the Chiefs must, however, navigate Anton Lienert-Brown’s (temporary) absence in Japan and losing Shaun Stevenson. There’s also the not insignificant coaching transition from Clayton McMillan to Jono Gibbes.
The Blues, in Vern Cotter’s final season before switching to guide the Reds, welcome back All Blacks Stephen Perofeta and Ofa TuÊ»ungafasi from injury and experienced midfielder Pita Ahki from France to offset Rieko Ioane’s sabbatical stint with Leinster. Captain Patrick Tuipulotu isn’t available until round nine while recovering from shoulder surgery and Beauden Barrett will sit out the opening rounds.
Tjay Clarke of the Hurricanes celebrates with Billy Proctor after scoring a try Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images
The Hurricanes start third favourites behind the Chiefs and Crusaders. That’s hardly dark horse territory but if all their pieces come together, Clark Laidlaw’s third season at the helm should be their best yet.
Long suffering Hurricanes fans are all too familiar with expectations falling well short of reality. One breakthrough title in 2016 is a grim return for a franchise that has harnessed a plethora of talented All Blacks.
Recent years have seen the Hurricanes continue their theme of reaching the post-season only to bomb out before the big dance. Three quarterfinal losses in four years leaves lingering frustrations.
In Laidlaw’s first season as head coach he led the Hurricanes to top the regular season. Home advantage counted for little, though, as the Chiefs stormed Wellington, with Sititi delivering one of the great individual displays, to claim the semifinal and brutally crush the Hurricanes hopes.
This year could be different, though.
Injuries will inevitably play a major role in every team’s respective campaigns. If the Hurricanes can keep the influential Cam Roigard and Jordie Barrett fit, they possess a coaching staff and roster to challenge anyone.
Laidlaw’s coaching team – that already boasts the well-regarded Cory Jane, Jamie Mackintosh and All Blacks lineout expert Bryn Evans – is further strengthened by Jason Holland’s return from national duties. Holland left the All Blacks prior to Scott Robertson’s dismissal and his eye for detail should enhance their attacking creativity.
Asafo Aumua of Wellington is tackled Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images
“That guy is a wizard,” Hurricanes openside Du’Plessis Kirifi, last year’s turnover king who will miss the first three to four games with a calf complaint, said of Holland.
“He’s got a huge love for the game both technically and holistically. He’s a man that has been around the group for a long time before he left for the All Blacks. We’re really lucky to have him back and it’s awesome to see him with a smile on his face.”
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Historically the Hurricanes have been vulnerable in their tight five but with three All Blacks tighthead props – Tyrel Lomax, Pasilio Tosi and Tevita Mafileo – on their books as well as the hulking Siale Lauaki, there should be no excuses in that department.
Powerhouse hooker Asafo Aumua didn’t feature for the All Blacks last year due to injury but training footage of his muscle on muscle has everyone on notice, too.
The addition of New Zealand-born Japan international Warner Dearns is another notable inclusion that should significantly bolster the Hurricanes locking stocks.
The loose forwards are typically stacked. Peter Lakai should continue his breakout year with the All Blacks. Kirifi will have a point to prove after limited opportunities at Test level while Devan Flanders and Brayden Iose are dynamic athletes.
Roigard confirmed his presence among the most influential All Blacks last year and while the Hurricanes have lost Harry Godfrey to a season-ending ACL, Ruben Love and Brett Cameron seem set to share the playmaking duties.
Love, in Cameron’s injury-enforced absence, made a solid fist of No. 10 at the back end of last year before largely sitting idle for the All Blacks.
Barrett’s return from his successful one season stint with Leinster drastically improves the Hurricanes title claims too. Barrett’s calming experience was sorely missed last season. Whether he rekindles his midfield partnership with Billy Proctor, or spends time at fullback, Barrett will vastly enhance the Hurricanes tactical smarts and backline physicality.
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Compared to some of their counterparts the Hurricanes don’t possess proven, elite wingers but once Kini Naholo returns from injury he’s likely to partner impressive sevens convert Fehi Fineanganofo, who will transfer to Newcastle at the end of the season, with Josh Moorby’s return from France adding valuable versatility.
“We’ve got a good roster this year, plenty of experience and a couple of boys coming back from overseas. It’s an exciting group,” Kirifi said. “If we can put everyone on the park and play the brand of rugby we know we can, hopefully we can build the momentum through the season.
“A title is long overdue but everyone is getting better and it’s a hard competition to win.”
For the Hurricanes to shake their nearly man tag they must grasp the elusive composure needed to win defining finals matches – and hope to keep their most influential figures healthy.
“It’s a mixture of being consistent and attacking the small moments as if they’re big ones. They often decide whether you win or not. That’s where I hope our experience will shine through when we really need it,” Kirifi said.
“The Crusaders are going to be there and the Chiefs have been unlucky the last few seasons. The Brumbies always lead the Australians really well. The big dogs will be there no matter what. The brand of rugby we’re all trying to play is going to be similar and it’s something the fans can get really excited about.”