Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina are the top two seeds at the Qatar Open — and a final between the two is starting to look like a real possibility.
With world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka absent, and fellow top four seeds Amanda Anisimova and Coco Gauff out in the second round, Swiatek and Rybakina are looking like significant favourites for the title at the opening WTA 1000 event of 2026.
The Pole and the Kazakh have met at the event in the past two years, with Swiatek beating Rybakina in the 2024 final, before beating her rival in the quarter-final twelve months ago.
However, it is not just the title potentially at stake for the two reigning Grand Slam champions this week — with Rybakina handed the chance to potentially overtake Swiatek as the world No 2 in the WTA Rankings.
As it stands
Rybakina is back in action after lifting her second Grand Slam title at the Australian Open at the end of January, beating Swiatek in the quarter-final on her way to glory.
In this week’s WTA Rankings, world No 2 Swiatek holds 7,978 points, with world No 3 Rybakina on 7,523 points.
Six-time Grand Slam champion Swiatek has a 455-point cushion over Rybakina, but with 1,000 ranking points on offer for this year’s women’s singles champion, a big swing between the two is possible.
Heading into the event, Swiatek had 390 points for reaching the semi-final in 2025, with Rybakina defending 215 quarter-finalist points after her loss to the Pole last year.
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Both started their 2026 campaigns with round-two wins on Tuesday, with Swiatek beating Janice Tjen 6-0, 6-3, and Rybakina defeating Wang Xinyu 6-2, 6-4.
That means that Swiatek currently holds 7,708 points in the WTA Live Rankings, with Rybakina on 7,428 points, ahead of their round-three matches on Wednesday.
Can Rybakina overtake Swiatek?
Rybakina needs just one more win to defend her 215 quarter-finalist points from the 2026 Qatar Open, while Swiatek needs two more wins to defend her 390 semi-finalist points.
However, with a strong cushion to her name as things stand, Swiatek just needs to match her rival’s result to stay ahead of her in the WTA Rankings.
And, if Rybakina fails to reach the final, Swiatek will be guaranteed to stay as the world No 2, regardless of her own result.
The Kazakh absolutely must reach the final to have any chance of overtaking the Pole, with no other result good enough for her to top her current career-high ranking of third.
Swiatek currently has 7,708 points in the WTA Live Rankings, while Rybakina would hold 7,698 points if she lost in the semi-final — just short of the Pole’s active total.
However, a run to the final would put the reigning Australian Open champion in contention to potentially overtake Swiatek in the WTA Rankings.
If Rybakina were to reach the final, she would hold 7,958 points in the WTA Live Rankings, meaning Swiatek would have to reach at least the semi-final to remain as the world No 2.
Should Swiatek reach the semi-final and move to 7,978 in the WTA Live Rankings — also her current official total — Rybakina would then have to win the title to become the world No 2.
However, if they were to meet in the final, it would be a ‘winner takes all’; the victorious player would not only lift the title, but also be the world No 2 next Monday.
Iga Swiatek’s potential WTA Rankings points
Round 3: 7,708 points
Quarter-final: 7,803 points
Semi-final: 7,978 points
Final: 8,238 points
Champion: 8,588 points
Elena Rybakina’s potential WTA Rankings points
Round 3: 7,428 points
Quarter-final: 7,523 points
Semi-final: 7,698 points
Final: 7,958 points
Champion: 8,308 points
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