Meteorologist and academic Dr Milton Speer said the reorganisation of warm water across the Pacific is central to the process. “When an El Niño develops, the warmed water tends to shift towards the central eastern Pacific. Around Australia’s east and north, sea temperatures tend to be cooler than average, and that usually means less rainfall, particularly from spring into summer,” Speer said, as reported by News.com.au. He noted that the 2023 El Niño did not follow earlier historical patterns, with heavy rainfall and flooding still recorded in parts of eastern and northern Australia. He said global warming has “upset the regular change and impacts of the phases,” complicating the use of past events as a guide for future seasonal risk. For insurers and reinsurers, the prospect of El Niño returning raises questions about exposure to bushfire and heat-related losses, possible impacts on agriculture and water resources, and indirect effects on health, business interruption, and infrastructure.
